Early, as usual. Occasional light snow will pick up during the day. There will be a changeover to sleet and freezing rain at some point in the storm, but I'm not sure when. This storm is a total crapshoot.
Right now, there is heavy snow going on all the way down to New Orleans. All they need is 5 inches in one storm to get an all time record, and its snowing at 1-2 inches per hour. So...they will most likely get a top ten snowfall today, with an outside chance of an alltime record.
I mention New Orleans because that wasn't expected. This storm is already surprising forecasters. The storm, so far, is much warmer than originally expected, to the point where there is plain rain falling in Manchester, though it should start to freeze soon. If forecasts verify, the temps will slowly drop this afternoon, and hold steady tonight. But I don't have a lot of confidence on any forecast with any computer models. Right now they show us on the line of being 6-10 inches, or 1-2 feet, depending on the mix. Since I have to decide, I'll go with 5-9 inches, with a lot of sleet and freezing rain. I don't think we can escape the warmer mid level air that will change the snow over to sleet later today. But we'll see. If it stays snow, we'll get over a foot.
The only thing I can guarantee....roads will be a mess tonight.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Quick update
I don't think I was very clear on the flash freeze today. The cold front "just" moved thru and already the temps are dropping into the upper 40s. Id say the flash freeze will be underway anytime in the late afternoon, esp after dark. Temps will probably drop 10-15 degrees over the next hour, and up to 20 degrees over the upper elevations. So the flash freeze could get underway a bit earlier there.
Ready to drop the bomb...
We've had about 45 days of teasing winter weather, with light snow showers, flurries, and occasionally some light accumulations. Now the first biggie of the year is on the way. But first...check out the temps.
Lebanon 56
Keene 55
Concord 57
Manchester 57
Nashua 58
Lawrence 60
But, further north...
Plymouth 39
Whitefield 42
St J, VT- 39
Lyndonville, VT 37
Burlington 31 (light snow)
Pittsburg NH 31 (light snow)
That cold weather is on its way later this afternoon and this evening, and it will do two things. First the temps will drop and any leftover precip will change over to freezing rain, sleet, and then snow before ending. There will most likely be a flash freeze tonight since temps have been dropping on average of 16-20 degrees in 15 min across VT. So driving will be tough where areas are not treated this evening.
The second issue we have is the winter storm that is moving up the coast tomorrow. Timing is still a little hairy, but it will probably be moving up into southern New England by mid to late morning. There is will be in the form of rain along the coast, and freezing rain, sleet and a touch of snow at the start, going over to mainly freezing rain for an extended period. Across our region, there is a high probability of the precipitation coming in as heavy snow, and possibly staying all snow. There is an equal chance that we could change over to sleet and freezing rain partway thru the storm, but either way its going to be an absolute mess Thursday afternoon till Friday morning. Whoever stays all snow will get 12+ inches of snow. Places who flip over to sleet and freezing rain, probably 4-6 inches with an accretion of ice on top. The best chances of all snow will most likely be the mountains and foothills of NH and VT. Here in Lebanon, its going to be close, as usual...between all snow and a mix. Either way, it spells nasty driving.
Winter storm watches have been put up for the area, outlining the potentials.
To sum up, two threats....
1) Flash freeze this evening with a little mixed precip/snow, further complicating matters.
2) First major winter storm of the season tomorrow afternoon thru Friday morn.
Another update tonight. Hopefully I'll be able to get some accumulations.
Lebanon 56
Keene 55
Concord 57
Manchester 57
Nashua 58
Lawrence 60
But, further north...
Plymouth 39
Whitefield 42
St J, VT- 39
Lyndonville, VT 37
Burlington 31 (light snow)
Pittsburg NH 31 (light snow)
That cold weather is on its way later this afternoon and this evening, and it will do two things. First the temps will drop and any leftover precip will change over to freezing rain, sleet, and then snow before ending. There will most likely be a flash freeze tonight since temps have been dropping on average of 16-20 degrees in 15 min across VT. So driving will be tough where areas are not treated this evening.
The second issue we have is the winter storm that is moving up the coast tomorrow. Timing is still a little hairy, but it will probably be moving up into southern New England by mid to late morning. There is will be in the form of rain along the coast, and freezing rain, sleet and a touch of snow at the start, going over to mainly freezing rain for an extended period. Across our region, there is a high probability of the precipitation coming in as heavy snow, and possibly staying all snow. There is an equal chance that we could change over to sleet and freezing rain partway thru the storm, but either way its going to be an absolute mess Thursday afternoon till Friday morning. Whoever stays all snow will get 12+ inches of snow. Places who flip over to sleet and freezing rain, probably 4-6 inches with an accretion of ice on top. The best chances of all snow will most likely be the mountains and foothills of NH and VT. Here in Lebanon, its going to be close, as usual...between all snow and a mix. Either way, it spells nasty driving.
Winter storm watches have been put up for the area, outlining the potentials.
To sum up, two threats....
1) Flash freeze this evening with a little mixed precip/snow, further complicating matters.
2) First major winter storm of the season tomorrow afternoon thru Friday morn.
Another update tonight. Hopefully I'll be able to get some accumulations.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
More Wet Than White
Quick update, rain till evening....possibly changing to snow, maybe a coating to an inch, esp above 1000 feet. The Greens, will get more, the Adirondacks and Catskills are gonna get slammed...12-20 inches. That is all I have to say.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Let's talk about snow!
This isn't a practice write up. This is real. :)
Yea...it's time. Not only because I consider fall...just about over...but there is a storm on the way, and we might get some snow. So I say, bring it on.
There is still much disagreement with the track of this early season....wait for it....nor'easter, but there is enough consensus to be concerned about the first accumulations of the year, even here in Lebanon.
This is subject to change of course. This morning it appeared that we were going to get hit by a significant snowfall, like 4-8 inches. But now, the models have shifted the track west. The NAM model is furthest west, and one of the outliers. That would give central NY the heaviest snow, and give us rain, and rain to snow in the mtns with accumulation at the end. The other outlier brings the storm off the coast, which is a much colder solution, and would give us significant accumulating snows. Chances are, the track will be somewhere in the middle, so probably just west, or to the eat of the Connecticut River Valley. That puts Lebanon on a fine line between mostly rain with flurries at the end, or rain to snow with a few inches of accumulation, and up to 6+ inches above 1500 feet.
FWIW, here is a model solution that right now, looks like the most likely solution.
That would spell a lot of snow in eastern NY, esp in the mtns, and possibly snow down to PA and NJ. And it has Lebanon under 1-2 inches, which seems like a good compromise. More will fall in the hills.
I'll try to have an update tonight and tomorrow. I think this situation will warrant an update. Someone in NY or western New England is going to get a foot...yea, a foot of snow.
Winter 08-09 is here!
Yea...it's time. Not only because I consider fall...just about over...but there is a storm on the way, and we might get some snow. So I say, bring it on.
There is still much disagreement with the track of this early season....wait for it....nor'easter, but there is enough consensus to be concerned about the first accumulations of the year, even here in Lebanon.
This is subject to change of course. This morning it appeared that we were going to get hit by a significant snowfall, like 4-8 inches. But now, the models have shifted the track west. The NAM model is furthest west, and one of the outliers. That would give central NY the heaviest snow, and give us rain, and rain to snow in the mtns with accumulation at the end. The other outlier brings the storm off the coast, which is a much colder solution, and would give us significant accumulating snows. Chances are, the track will be somewhere in the middle, so probably just west, or to the eat of the Connecticut River Valley. That puts Lebanon on a fine line between mostly rain with flurries at the end, or rain to snow with a few inches of accumulation, and up to 6+ inches above 1500 feet.
FWIW, here is a model solution that right now, looks like the most likely solution.
That would spell a lot of snow in eastern NY, esp in the mtns, and possibly snow down to PA and NJ. And it has Lebanon under 1-2 inches, which seems like a good compromise. More will fall in the hills.
I'll try to have an update tonight and tomorrow. I think this situation will warrant an update. Someone in NY or western New England is going to get a foot...yea, a foot of snow.
Winter 08-09 is here!
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Been awhile
Its been awhile since I've posted on here. I've been too busy to care about typing up a bunch of useless random weather stuff that only 2-3 people read anyways. But lots of crazy weather has happened in the last month...and the one that sticks out the most...
The EF2 tornado that traveled over 50 miles from Deerfield to Freedom, NH. It takes the cake for longest damage path in New England history. The damage path was 4 miles longer than the F4 Worcester County tornado in 1953. It is kind of weird to witness weather history, esp with tornadoes in New England. I'm willing to bet something like that won't happen again for a long time.
Right now, its pouring. Its been raining hard off and on since yesterday, and there is no end for the next 12-18 hours. This pattern royally sucks, and Id be willing to bet that June and July were some of the wettest months in New England history. I know the Burlington VT forecast office posted some stats for rainfall totals in certain towns, and a few places broke all time records. I'm sure the same is true in NH and ME. And it continues to pour this afternoon.
I'm going to try to update this a little more often, now that I'm actually not running around crazy.
The EF2 tornado that traveled over 50 miles from Deerfield to Freedom, NH. It takes the cake for longest damage path in New England history. The damage path was 4 miles longer than the F4 Worcester County tornado in 1953. It is kind of weird to witness weather history, esp with tornadoes in New England. I'm willing to bet something like that won't happen again for a long time.
Right now, its pouring. Its been raining hard off and on since yesterday, and there is no end for the next 12-18 hours. This pattern royally sucks, and Id be willing to bet that June and July were some of the wettest months in New England history. I know the Burlington VT forecast office posted some stats for rainfall totals in certain towns, and a few places broke all time records. I'm sure the same is true in NH and ME. And it continues to pour this afternoon.
I'm going to try to update this a little more often, now that I'm actually not running around crazy.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Colllaborating offices.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
517 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
VTZ012-292215-
WINDSOR-
INCLUDING...SPRINGFIELD
517 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
AT 517 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH SPRINGFIELD IN WINDSOR COUNTY...MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER THROUGH 615
PM...AFFECTING TOWNS AND LOCALITIES UP TO THE WOODSTOCK AND NORTH
HARTLAND AREAS. YOU CAN EXPECT TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
NHZ007-292215-
SULLIVAN-
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...
AT 509 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLOWS FALLS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND LANGDON...CHARLESTOWN...ACWORTH...
LEMPSTER...WEST UNITY...EAST LEMPSTER...CLAREMONT...UNITY...GOSHEN
AND PLAINFIELD THROUGH 615 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
517 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
VTZ012-292215-
WINDSOR-
INCLUDING...SPRINGFIELD
517 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
AT 517 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH SPRINGFIELD IN WINDSOR COUNTY...MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER THROUGH 615
PM...AFFECTING TOWNS AND LOCALITIES UP TO THE WOODSTOCK AND NORTH
HARTLAND AREAS. YOU CAN EXPECT TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
NHZ007-292215-
SULLIVAN-
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...
AT 509 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLOWS FALLS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND LANGDON...CHARLESTOWN...ACWORTH...
LEMPSTER...WEST UNITY...EAST LEMPSTER...CLAREMONT...UNITY...GOSHEN
AND PLAINFIELD THROUGH 615 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
Getting their act together rapidly
NHZ007-008-292100-
MERRIMACK-SULLIVAN-
354 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN COUNTY AND MERRIMACK
COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEWPORT TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ACWORTH MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND UNITY...NEWPORT...SUNAPEE...ACWORTH...LEMPSTER...GOSHEN...NEW
LONDON ...MOUNT SUNAPEE STATE PARK...JOHN HAY NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE AND EAST LEMPSTER THROUGH 500 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
MERRIMACK-SULLIVAN-
354 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN COUNTY AND MERRIMACK
COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEWPORT TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ACWORTH MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND UNITY...NEWPORT...SUNAPEE...ACWORTH...LEMPSTER...GOSHEN...NEW
LONDON ...MOUNT SUNAPEE STATE PARK...JOHN HAY NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE AND EAST LEMPSTER THROUGH 500 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
Gully washers possible
Severe thunderstorms are developing across SW New Hampshire this afternoon. So far, they aren't prolific lightning producers, but they are producing isolated damaging wind, and more importantly, incredible rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour.
The temp at which convection can begin is about 80 degrees today, and we have just reached that in Lebanon an hour ago, so I expect storms to develop nearby or overhead within an hour or two. It appears that a line is beginning just to our south, but that doesn't mean things wont develop locally. There is also a strong line of thunderstorms way out in western NYS, but those are moving north before east, so it will be some time before that line makes it here. In the meantime, prepare for isolated slow moving thunderstorms that drop a couple inches of rain in one hour.
The sun is out as much as it has been all day, so I really expect storms to develop...very soon.
The temp at which convection can begin is about 80 degrees today, and we have just reached that in Lebanon an hour ago, so I expect storms to develop nearby or overhead within an hour or two. It appears that a line is beginning just to our south, but that doesn't mean things wont develop locally. There is also a strong line of thunderstorms way out in western NYS, but those are moving north before east, so it will be some time before that line makes it here. In the meantime, prepare for isolated slow moving thunderstorms that drop a couple inches of rain in one hour.
The sun is out as much as it has been all day, so I really expect storms to develop...very soon.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
One day break
Enjoy today. It will be a perfect summer afternoon, with temperatures in the low 80s. Tomorrow we're back into the thunder chances. In fact, the Storm prediction center thinks there is a severe weather probability.
"NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA...TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND. TSTMS MAY TEND TO
FOCUS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT /NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/...AND PERHAPS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL /SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN NY AND PA/. WITH AN APPROACHING SPEED MAXIMA
ALOFT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW /40-50 KT AT 500 MB/
AND MODEST VEERING WILL FAVOR WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME
SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
HAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
So there ya have it. We have another active day tomorrow, and more thunder is expected thru the weekend, with severe weather likely.
"NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA...TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND. TSTMS MAY TEND TO
FOCUS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT /NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/...AND PERHAPS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL /SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN NY AND PA/. WITH AN APPROACHING SPEED MAXIMA
ALOFT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW /40-50 KT AT 500 MB/
AND MODEST VEERING WILL FAVOR WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME
SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
HAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
So there ya have it. We have another active day tomorrow, and more thunder is expected thru the weekend, with severe weather likely.
Hail in Hanover
1835 75 HANOVER GRAFTON NH 4370 7229 (GYX)
Thats hail 3/4 inch in diameter, just qualifying the thunderstorm as severe. It certainly was a nasty one. I really wish I had my camera handy because the clouds were some of the most impressive I have ever seen. THere was no haze in the sky so you could see the entire thunderstorm. It almost looked like it was ready to rotate.
Lebanon airport only picked up .01 inches of precip, but when you travel literally a mile north, the rainfall picked up dramatically. Doppler estimated around an inch of rain in about 20-25 min time. It was quite the storm on what seemed like a calm day. Temps were low, humidity was almost nonexistent...but there was another cold front moving thru, plus an upper level low, which made the air in the upper atmosphere very cold, and it helped to produce lots of hail in the storms today. I counted 39 severe hail reports in New England today...that a lot of hail. Because most storms produced hail...so 39 were actually severe. It was clearly a very active day.
Tomorrow? A one day break...but one of the top 10 days of the entire year. Sunny, mid to upper 70s, perfect.
Then more thunder potential the rest of the week. This is one of the more active patterns I can remember. Perhaps in July (normally the active lightning season), there will be a respite.
Thats hail 3/4 inch in diameter, just qualifying the thunderstorm as severe. It certainly was a nasty one. I really wish I had my camera handy because the clouds were some of the most impressive I have ever seen. THere was no haze in the sky so you could see the entire thunderstorm. It almost looked like it was ready to rotate.
Lebanon airport only picked up .01 inches of precip, but when you travel literally a mile north, the rainfall picked up dramatically. Doppler estimated around an inch of rain in about 20-25 min time. It was quite the storm on what seemed like a calm day. Temps were low, humidity was almost nonexistent...but there was another cold front moving thru, plus an upper level low, which made the air in the upper atmosphere very cold, and it helped to produce lots of hail in the storms today. I counted 39 severe hail reports in New England today...that a lot of hail. Because most storms produced hail...so 39 were actually severe. It was clearly a very active day.
Tomorrow? A one day break...but one of the top 10 days of the entire year. Sunny, mid to upper 70s, perfect.
Then more thunder potential the rest of the week. This is one of the more active patterns I can remember. Perhaps in July (normally the active lightning season), there will be a respite.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Possibly moving north to hit Lebanon early this AM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
402 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008
NHZ007-008-231100-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CONCORD
402 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION BETWEEN 445 AM AND
600 AM. CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...BRADFORD...CONCORD...AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS MAY SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS THIS
WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. THOSE UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SHOULD STAY ALERT AS THIS POTENTIALLY THREATENING WEATHER MOVES THROUGH
Ya know, I wish I was sleeping right now. Major severe weather outbreak going on in Western New England, and it should push east northeast into NH soon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
402 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008
NHZ007-008-231100-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CONCORD
402 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION BETWEEN 445 AM AND
600 AM. CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...BRADFORD...CONCORD...AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS MAY SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS THIS
WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. THOSE UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SHOULD STAY ALERT AS THIS POTENTIALLY THREATENING WEATHER MOVES THROUGH
Ya know, I wish I was sleeping right now. Major severe weather outbreak going on in Western New England, and it should push east northeast into NH soon.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Severe Weather Today
1621 300 ORANGE GRAFTON NH 4365 7197 3 INCH HAIL AT MT CARDIGAN (GYX)
Three inch hail at Mt Cardigan!! That's softball sized hail, something that rarely happens in this area. Another report...
1707 UNK ALEXANDRIA GRAFTON NH 4361 7179 TREES DOWN ON MT CARDIGAN ROAD.
Unknown wind gust knocked down trees on the road leading to Mt Cardigan. A tornado warning was issued with that storm, that has since canceled, but more severe weather is possible this afternoon. Id be willing to bet that NWS crews will be checking for tornado damage near Cardigan soon.
Storms are pretty much moving from south to north, or just slightly east of north, so we are under the gun the rest of the day. Plus, there are more showers and thunderstorms developing out in upstate NY and we may have to hear from those later this evening.
Looking at doppler radar rainfall estimates, it ranges anywhere from around .6-.75 inches in Hanover, (.57 officially at Lebanon airport) to 2 inches around Orange and Alexandria (Mt Cardigan area), and up to 2.5 inches near Laconia. So any storm that develops has the potential to produce flash flooding. The storm that was near Mt Cardigan produced 1.85 inches of rain in ten minutes...not a typo.
As for now, thunderstorms are possible at any time of the afternoon, so keep watching the sky if you have outdoor activities. Currently there is a batch of very heavy thunderstorms east of the area, and a few south and west of us, trying to develop. Those are moving in our general direction.
edit
A brand new severe thunderstorm watch was issued for upstate NY over to southern VT. That may be extended further east later today. We'll watch it. The rain cooled air may serve to temper the storms later, but if there is any sunshine this afternoon, it will only further destabilize the atmosphere.
Three inch hail at Mt Cardigan!! That's softball sized hail, something that rarely happens in this area. Another report...
1707 UNK ALEXANDRIA GRAFTON NH 4361 7179 TREES DOWN ON MT CARDIGAN ROAD.
Unknown wind gust knocked down trees on the road leading to Mt Cardigan. A tornado warning was issued with that storm, that has since canceled, but more severe weather is possible this afternoon. Id be willing to bet that NWS crews will be checking for tornado damage near Cardigan soon.
Storms are pretty much moving from south to north, or just slightly east of north, so we are under the gun the rest of the day. Plus, there are more showers and thunderstorms developing out in upstate NY and we may have to hear from those later this evening.
Looking at doppler radar rainfall estimates, it ranges anywhere from around .6-.75 inches in Hanover, (.57 officially at Lebanon airport) to 2 inches around Orange and Alexandria (Mt Cardigan area), and up to 2.5 inches near Laconia. So any storm that develops has the potential to produce flash flooding. The storm that was near Mt Cardigan produced 1.85 inches of rain in ten minutes...not a typo.
As for now, thunderstorms are possible at any time of the afternoon, so keep watching the sky if you have outdoor activities. Currently there is a batch of very heavy thunderstorms east of the area, and a few south and west of us, trying to develop. Those are moving in our general direction.
edit
A brand new severe thunderstorm watch was issued for upstate NY over to southern VT. That may be extended further east later today. We'll watch it. The rain cooled air may serve to temper the storms later, but if there is any sunshine this afternoon, it will only further destabilize the atmosphere.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Special Weather Statement
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH OR MORE...LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE WINDS ALOFT...WILL INTERACT WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS AND PRODUCE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING.
So in other words, stay tuned!
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH OR MORE...LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE WINDS ALOFT...WILL INTERACT WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS AND PRODUCE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING.
So in other words, stay tuned!
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Severe Thunderstorm Sideswipe
Well my headache predicted the storm again.....I'm 3 for 3. Hanover got a nasty little storm this afternoon, but it didn't really drop that much rain. I think it was developing overhead and it got worse a couple downs south. Enfield had one inch hail and 8 inch diameter trees down. Up in Tunbridge VT. a grain bin was overturned and was blown 200 feet, and a barn's roof was ripped off. Sounds like a very localized microburst to me. Either that, or less likely, a weak tornado. I bet ya the National Weather service will be checking out that area to see the extent of the damage.
Meanwhile, there was only five minutes of rain, and the dewpoint is even higher now, so it is disgusting outside. Temp is 80 with a dp of 75. UGH! Temp is up to 85 in the apt and I'm pretty much ready for winter again.
I took a few pics of the thunderstorm, and I'm going to post a few.
This sucker kind of died when it neared Hanover, and then blew up again right over town, and then pulsed up even more towards Enfield. You can see that in the pics. Lots of lightning, brief gusty winds, and a quick downpour was all it produced. But the lightning was vivid enough for people to take cover.
More thunder is on the way possibly late tonight, if the storms in Canada hold together. Tomorrow is a better chance for nasty thunderstorms as a backdoor front attempts to cross the area, though I don't know if its going to make it. Either way, thunder is possible, with temps up into the low 90s. Tuesday could be the hottest day, as the main front has slowed down so we will prob squeeze out one more awful day, with a potential for nasty thunderstorms later in the day. Lots to watch over! Hopefully I can get some sleep.
BTW, it hit 91 in Lebanon, and 92 in Hanover.
Meanwhile, there was only five minutes of rain, and the dewpoint is even higher now, so it is disgusting outside. Temp is 80 with a dp of 75. UGH! Temp is up to 85 in the apt and I'm pretty much ready for winter again.
I took a few pics of the thunderstorm, and I'm going to post a few.
This sucker kind of died when it neared Hanover, and then blew up again right over town, and then pulsed up even more towards Enfield. You can see that in the pics. Lots of lightning, brief gusty winds, and a quick downpour was all it produced. But the lightning was vivid enough for people to take cover.
More thunder is on the way possibly late tonight, if the storms in Canada hold together. Tomorrow is a better chance for nasty thunderstorms as a backdoor front attempts to cross the area, though I don't know if its going to make it. Either way, thunder is possible, with temps up into the low 90s. Tuesday could be the hottest day, as the main front has slowed down so we will prob squeeze out one more awful day, with a potential for nasty thunderstorms later in the day. Lots to watch over! Hopefully I can get some sleep.
BTW, it hit 91 in Lebanon, and 92 in Hanover.
Hot Day Part 2
Current temp as of 11am at Lebanon...85 degrees. Current temp in Hanover as of now, 87. Its a hot one. When temps are closing in on 90 at noon, it usually spells out a day around 95 or 96. So we'll see how warm it gets.
There seems to be a little less haze in the sky today, but the clouds are much puffier than they were yesterday. Plus, its not even noon yet, so that makes me wonder about thunderstorm potential later this afternoon. The instability isn't great, but I already see thunderstorms popping up in New York. So chances are some sort of thunderstorm will threaten later today. Plus, I had a headache yesterday, and that usually means some sort of thunderstorm will threaten 24-36 hrs later. Let's see if my head nails the forecast again.. So far this year, it's 2 for 2.
It clearly looks like the heat humidity will extend into Tuesday, before the cold front moves though. Though on Monday, a back door cold front might come thru during the afternoon, putting a cap on the heat for a few hours, and adding the chances for thunderstorms. If we are to get on the cool side of the backdoor front, it will cool into the 70s or low 80s, but I think the front will stay just to our north. Keep fingers crossed. The cool down (if it happens) would be short lived, as the backdoor front moves back thru as a warm front Monday night, and serves as the focus for more thunderstorms Monday evening. We'll have to watch for an MCS again.
The heat will end later Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a chance for severe weather. I'll get into more about the chances for thunderstorms later this afternoon. Enjoy the heat....I guess. :)
There seems to be a little less haze in the sky today, but the clouds are much puffier than they were yesterday. Plus, its not even noon yet, so that makes me wonder about thunderstorm potential later this afternoon. The instability isn't great, but I already see thunderstorms popping up in New York. So chances are some sort of thunderstorm will threaten later today. Plus, I had a headache yesterday, and that usually means some sort of thunderstorm will threaten 24-36 hrs later. Let's see if my head nails the forecast again.. So far this year, it's 2 for 2.
It clearly looks like the heat humidity will extend into Tuesday, before the cold front moves though. Though on Monday, a back door cold front might come thru during the afternoon, putting a cap on the heat for a few hours, and adding the chances for thunderstorms. If we are to get on the cool side of the backdoor front, it will cool into the 70s or low 80s, but I think the front will stay just to our north. Keep fingers crossed. The cool down (if it happens) would be short lived, as the backdoor front moves back thru as a warm front Monday night, and serves as the focus for more thunderstorms Monday evening. We'll have to watch for an MCS again.
The heat will end later Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a chance for severe weather. I'll get into more about the chances for thunderstorms later this afternoon. Enjoy the heat....I guess. :)
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Hot Enough For Ya?
Unofficially, it has hit 93 in Lebanon...hottest day of the year. The thunderstorm potential is low, but a few might form in VT and survive the trip to the CT river valley. But the atmosphere is sufficiently capped across most of NH, so if anything moves in it will be from the west, and prob in its dying stages. A mesoscale convective complex (MCS) is forming out in Wisconsin and should dive well to our south and west. There might be a few high clouds moving over the area from the outskirts of the MCS early tomorrow morning, but I don't think it will hinder our chances of hitting 90 degrees for the second straight day.
More on MCS's at this website.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_Convective_System
After the hot Sunday, and a chance of a pulse thunderstorm, our attention is turned to another potential MCS that is forecast to hit northern New England late Sunday night or Monday morning. It will be a dying system but lots of clouds will move in during the morning, which may limit temperatures a bit during the day. We'll see if that happens.
More later.
More on MCS's at this website.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_Convective_System
After the hot Sunday, and a chance of a pulse thunderstorm, our attention is turned to another potential MCS that is forecast to hit northern New England late Sunday night or Monday morning. It will be a dying system but lots of clouds will move in during the morning, which may limit temperatures a bit during the day. We'll see if that happens.
More later.
Are you ready to cook?
The heat and humidity has arrived. Temp is up to 76 in Lebanon with a dew point of 67, so it feels downright sticky out. Let me talk about dew points for a second.
Dew points
40s and lower: Comfortable, dry! AHH
50s- Normally comfortable during summer months, but may feel a little muggy in winter or early spring
60-65: Starting to get humid, though after a big heat wave with higher humidity 60-65 doesn't feel too bad. But when its the first time, it's nasty.
65-70: This is when you really begin to feel it. Everything is damp, and sweat comes naturally.
70+: Oppressive! Forget about going outside. You feel like you're swimming through the air. The highest dew point I've experienced was 80, and I hope I never feel that again. You break a sweat moving your eyes.
We're destined to have dew points (dp) in the 70s this weekend. Plus, the heat will become unbearable. Those without air conditioning, good luck. The only chance of relief will be in the form of scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, though most areas will stay rain free.
The heat has the potential to last straight through Tuesday, though a strong cold front will move through that day, putting an end to the oppressive heat and humidity. Though each day poses the risk of an afternoon thunderstorm, which could be severe, Tuesday appears to be the best chance for bad weather. Now, onto the forecast.
This afternoon: Becoming hazy, increasing hotter and humid. There is an outside risk of a thunderstorm late. Highs 87-93, warmest in western and southwest NH where the sun is out longest. Actually, the immediate coast might stay in the 70s today, especially along southerly facing beaches. Actually, those areas might stay in the upper 60s to near 70. Lucky...
Tonight: An early thunderstorm possible, then mainly clear, with patchy fog forming. Warm and humid. Lows in the 60s, upper 60s in the urban centers.
Sunday: Triple H....Hazy, hot and humid, with a slight chance of thunderstorm, esp up north. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Have fun...
Sunday night, early t-storm? Then clear and humid. Lows 65-70, warmer in the cities.
Monday: Hottest day potential. Highs 95-103. Slight risk of an afternoon t-storm, but the atmosphere might be capped enough to allow for thunder this day.
Tuesday: Transition day. Starting out sunny and hot, 87-92, then big thunderstorms in the afternoon, as a cold front makes its way in. Could be a significant outbreak, though the front is progressive, so the storms probably won't last long. Still a few days to look at this.
Also, an air quality alert has been hoisted. Just don't go out an exercise. It's already becoming increasingly difficult to breathe.
I'll have more updates when they become available.
I HATE heat.
Dew points
40s and lower: Comfortable, dry! AHH
50s- Normally comfortable during summer months, but may feel a little muggy in winter or early spring
60-65: Starting to get humid, though after a big heat wave with higher humidity 60-65 doesn't feel too bad. But when its the first time, it's nasty.
65-70: This is when you really begin to feel it. Everything is damp, and sweat comes naturally.
70+: Oppressive! Forget about going outside. You feel like you're swimming through the air. The highest dew point I've experienced was 80, and I hope I never feel that again. You break a sweat moving your eyes.
We're destined to have dew points (dp) in the 70s this weekend. Plus, the heat will become unbearable. Those without air conditioning, good luck. The only chance of relief will be in the form of scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, though most areas will stay rain free.
The heat has the potential to last straight through Tuesday, though a strong cold front will move through that day, putting an end to the oppressive heat and humidity. Though each day poses the risk of an afternoon thunderstorm, which could be severe, Tuesday appears to be the best chance for bad weather. Now, onto the forecast.
This afternoon: Becoming hazy, increasing hotter and humid. There is an outside risk of a thunderstorm late. Highs 87-93, warmest in western and southwest NH where the sun is out longest. Actually, the immediate coast might stay in the 70s today, especially along southerly facing beaches. Actually, those areas might stay in the upper 60s to near 70. Lucky...
Tonight: An early thunderstorm possible, then mainly clear, with patchy fog forming. Warm and humid. Lows in the 60s, upper 60s in the urban centers.
Sunday: Triple H....Hazy, hot and humid, with a slight chance of thunderstorm, esp up north. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Have fun...
Sunday night, early t-storm? Then clear and humid. Lows 65-70, warmer in the cities.
Monday: Hottest day potential. Highs 95-103. Slight risk of an afternoon t-storm, but the atmosphere might be capped enough to allow for thunder this day.
Tuesday: Transition day. Starting out sunny and hot, 87-92, then big thunderstorms in the afternoon, as a cold front makes its way in. Could be a significant outbreak, though the front is progressive, so the storms probably won't last long. Still a few days to look at this.
Also, an air quality alert has been hoisted. Just don't go out an exercise. It's already becoming increasingly difficult to breathe.
I'll have more updates when they become available.
I HATE heat.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Severe thunderstorm watch for southern NH
First one of the year, its in effect for southern and east central NH till 8pm.
Its a warm and humid early afternoon in Lebanon. Temps are in the low 80s and the dew point is up near 60 degrees, making it the muggiest day we have experienced so far this year. A 60 dew point isn't horrible during the mid summer, but this time of year, you can clearly notice it.
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to pop out in upstate NY, and there is one just west of Rutland in VT. They're pretty much right along the frontal boundary, and they could mean business early this afternoon. The strongest storms will probably be down in southern and central NH, but since we've already warmed into the 80s, there is a potential for a gusty storm here anytime after 1:30-2pm. Hail, vivid lightning, and gusty winds are the primary threat.
There is an outside chance Lebanon might get a severe storm, but most should be east and south of the area. Once the front moves through, the temps are going to drop like a rock. Its down to 66 in Montpelier VT, 56 in Morrisville, 55 in Burlington, and 45 up in Saranac Lake NY. Expect a quick 20-25 degree drop later this afternoon after the front clears. That will set up a clear and cool night, with possible frost in areas where the wind dies down. The best chance will be tomorrow night, with temps going down into the low to mid 30s.
Keep an eye to the sky today. It could turn nasty for a while.
Its a warm and humid early afternoon in Lebanon. Temps are in the low 80s and the dew point is up near 60 degrees, making it the muggiest day we have experienced so far this year. A 60 dew point isn't horrible during the mid summer, but this time of year, you can clearly notice it.
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to pop out in upstate NY, and there is one just west of Rutland in VT. They're pretty much right along the frontal boundary, and they could mean business early this afternoon. The strongest storms will probably be down in southern and central NH, but since we've already warmed into the 80s, there is a potential for a gusty storm here anytime after 1:30-2pm. Hail, vivid lightning, and gusty winds are the primary threat.
There is an outside chance Lebanon might get a severe storm, but most should be east and south of the area. Once the front moves through, the temps are going to drop like a rock. Its down to 66 in Montpelier VT, 56 in Morrisville, 55 in Burlington, and 45 up in Saranac Lake NY. Expect a quick 20-25 degree drop later this afternoon after the front clears. That will set up a clear and cool night, with possible frost in areas where the wind dies down. The best chance will be tomorrow night, with temps going down into the low to mid 30s.
Keep an eye to the sky today. It could turn nasty for a while.
Monday, May 12, 2008
When is this weather going to end?
Been awhile since I've posted.
The question I posed is one that concerns me. We've had such a stretch of great weather lately. April was amazing, and now we seem to be deflecting every single storm that comes our way. Temperatures haven't been all that warm, but just perfect for this time of year, and spring is coming along nicely. Leaves are out in full force and the scent of flowers is wafting through my window. It is one of my favorite times year, up there with peak foliage, and first big snow. I can't get over the awesome smell of the flowers, especially the lilacs. Those flowers are blooming, and once they're out, it will be 10-14 days purple lilac scent across every corner of town. I can't wait.
On the other hand, we've dodged yet another nasty storm today. It isn't a perfect day, with cooler temperatures and gusty east-northeast winds, but its better than what upstate NY is getting right now....rain, and temperatures in the 40s. That should have been our weather for today, but we seem to be under some sort of good luck. I like good luck, but I wonder when its going to run out. Perhaps in a way, it ran out after April's great weather, but this isn't bad at all. In past Mays, we've had weeks of rainy and dreary weather, like 2005 and 2006. Not too long ago...
Maybe we're finally breaking a bad luck streak with some tolerable May weather for a change. Maybe I'm used to bad luck. Or maybe our winter was so active that mother nature is ready for an extended break. Hopefully things will go well, because we're still in a time of year where sun means 70, and clouds and rain can mean 40-45. And the latest snow I've experienced was May 18, 2002. (Graduation in many places, that was quite the sight.) So that door is closing fast, but yea, it can happen.
Continue to enjoy this fair weather. Hopefully no big rain storms are on the horizon. For me, winter was great, but it was just long enough to make me excited for this time of year. Now if we could only stop severe thunderstorms, it would be perfect.
The question I posed is one that concerns me. We've had such a stretch of great weather lately. April was amazing, and now we seem to be deflecting every single storm that comes our way. Temperatures haven't been all that warm, but just perfect for this time of year, and spring is coming along nicely. Leaves are out in full force and the scent of flowers is wafting through my window. It is one of my favorite times year, up there with peak foliage, and first big snow. I can't get over the awesome smell of the flowers, especially the lilacs. Those flowers are blooming, and once they're out, it will be 10-14 days purple lilac scent across every corner of town. I can't wait.
On the other hand, we've dodged yet another nasty storm today. It isn't a perfect day, with cooler temperatures and gusty east-northeast winds, but its better than what upstate NY is getting right now....rain, and temperatures in the 40s. That should have been our weather for today, but we seem to be under some sort of good luck. I like good luck, but I wonder when its going to run out. Perhaps in a way, it ran out after April's great weather, but this isn't bad at all. In past Mays, we've had weeks of rainy and dreary weather, like 2005 and 2006. Not too long ago...
Maybe we're finally breaking a bad luck streak with some tolerable May weather for a change. Maybe I'm used to bad luck. Or maybe our winter was so active that mother nature is ready for an extended break. Hopefully things will go well, because we're still in a time of year where sun means 70, and clouds and rain can mean 40-45. And the latest snow I've experienced was May 18, 2002. (Graduation in many places, that was quite the sight.) So that door is closing fast, but yea, it can happen.
Continue to enjoy this fair weather. Hopefully no big rain storms are on the horizon. For me, winter was great, but it was just long enough to make me excited for this time of year. Now if we could only stop severe thunderstorms, it would be perfect.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Who is Ready for Heavy Rain and Flooding?
Rivers are near bank full, and we have 2-4 inches of rain coming. What does that spell? Possible minor to moderate flooding. If the White Mtns are to melt a lot of snow, then major flooding is possible, but temperatures are going to be very cold there, and the rain might actually change to freezing rain and snow partway through, so we could possibly escape major flooding if that happens. No snow is forecast here, but it definitely will be a cold and raw beginning to the week. It should be an interesting couple days, and if we get more than the 2-4 expected, there will be problems.
Hope you live on a hill! Have a good one.
Hope you live on a hill! Have a good one.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
May 9th, 1977
Its thundering out, so I'm posting this.
Yes, it can happen.
Oh, and May 18, 2002....
"On May 18, 2002 a record breaking 2.2 inches of snow fell in Albany, NY. This was the first time that snow has fallen at the station on that date. The record May snowfall is 5.0 inches which fell on one day, May 10, 1945. The 2.2 inches on the 18th is the latest date for measurable snowfall at the station and the monthly total of 2.2 inches makes May 2002, the second snowiest on record. The latest last spring date that a trace of snowfall has fallen was on May 28, 1902."
"At Worcester, MA 0.7 inches of snow fell on May 18, 2002. This broke the daily record of a trace of snow set in 1931. This also established a new record date for the latest measurable snowfall in May. The old record was 1.5 inches on May 11, 1945."
Oh yeah, I saw 2.5 inches that day.
Winter is not over.
Yes, it can happen.
Oh, and May 18, 2002....
"On May 18, 2002 a record breaking 2.2 inches of snow fell in Albany, NY. This was the first time that snow has fallen at the station on that date. The record May snowfall is 5.0 inches which fell on one day, May 10, 1945. The 2.2 inches on the 18th is the latest date for measurable snowfall at the station and the monthly total of 2.2 inches makes May 2002, the second snowiest on record. The latest last spring date that a trace of snowfall has fallen was on May 28, 1902."
"At Worcester, MA 0.7 inches of snow fell on May 18, 2002. This broke the daily record of a trace of snow set in 1931. This also established a new record date for the latest measurable snowfall in May. The old record was 1.5 inches on May 11, 1945."
Oh yeah, I saw 2.5 inches that day.
Winter is not over.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Happy Spring!
Currently the temperature is 66 degrees. Put the thermometer in the sun and its 70 easy. It is definitely a shorts day. Temps will peak in the low 70s this afternoon, prob around 72 or 73, and tomorrow will be even better. The official forecast has risen the high to 75, just as I thought they would, so our chances of 80 degrees are definitely possible. There will be a squeeze play going on, with a backdoor cold front approaching from the northeast. Chances are, it will remain to our north during the entire day Friday so upper 70s to near 80 are quite possible.
Then the forecast becomes tricky for the weekend. The cold front will probably stall, just to our south and west, which will lock in cooler air, and possibly a deck of clouds, especially at the coast. There is an outside chance of a sprinkle of shower as well. Since we are far inland, the clouds should break and we should salvage at least some sunshine, but it doesn't look as beautiful as today and tomorrow. Temps will head for 70, but fall just short Saturday, and then the cooler air takes over Sunday. Not cold though...with highs 55-58. Sunday will definitely be the worst of the two days, and the clouds should win out, along with a chance of a shower.
Early outlook for next week. Not as awesome as this week, with a couple of chances of showers. Still we should manage slightly above normal temperatures.
Enjoy the spring warmth!
Then the forecast becomes tricky for the weekend. The cold front will probably stall, just to our south and west, which will lock in cooler air, and possibly a deck of clouds, especially at the coast. There is an outside chance of a sprinkle of shower as well. Since we are far inland, the clouds should break and we should salvage at least some sunshine, but it doesn't look as beautiful as today and tomorrow. Temps will head for 70, but fall just short Saturday, and then the cooler air takes over Sunday. Not cold though...with highs 55-58. Sunday will definitely be the worst of the two days, and the clouds should win out, along with a chance of a shower.
Early outlook for next week. Not as awesome as this week, with a couple of chances of showers. Still we should manage slightly above normal temperatures.
Enjoy the spring warmth!
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
80 Degrees Friday?
I wouldn't be surprised.... But I'll get to that in a minute.
We have another triple C night (clear calm and cold). The temp is down to 28 in Lebanon, and should get down to about 20 before dawn. After that, we have a big recovery coming tomorrow with temperatures in the mid 60s. It is going to be an absolutely wonderful early spring day.
Then the fun starts Thursday. I'm contemplating wearing shorts, as temperatures should make a run at 70.
Friday looks to be the warmest day. The computer models are supporting temps at least in the low 70s, but with a southwest wind, it could be 75. Most of the snow has melted and there is little vegetation growing, which can produce evapotranspiration (in other words, it would be a cooling effect). So keep your fingers crossed, there is an outside chance of 75-80 degree temperatures Friday afternoon. I'm very optimistic it will be warm that day. We'll see how it goes.
We have another triple C night (clear calm and cold). The temp is down to 28 in Lebanon, and should get down to about 20 before dawn. After that, we have a big recovery coming tomorrow with temperatures in the mid 60s. It is going to be an absolutely wonderful early spring day.
Then the fun starts Thursday. I'm contemplating wearing shorts, as temperatures should make a run at 70.
Friday looks to be the warmest day. The computer models are supporting temps at least in the low 70s, but with a southwest wind, it could be 75. Most of the snow has melted and there is little vegetation growing, which can produce evapotranspiration (in other words, it would be a cooling effect). So keep your fingers crossed, there is an outside chance of 75-80 degree temperatures Friday afternoon. I'm very optimistic it will be warm that day. We'll see how it goes.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Warm Day Saturday, and Flooding
I was away for the weekend, but I see that Lebanon hit 71 degrees Saturday! That is the warmest day of the year, and it came as a complete surprise to many. The forecast through Friday night was for a cool and raw day Saturday, but warm air won! Today was a slap back to reality, with mostly cloudy skies, windy conditions, and afternoon snow showers and squalls. I was in Plymouth NH and there was a brief snow squall that hit around 6pm. No accumulation, the temp was around 40. Still, that could very well be the last snow of the season. Goodbye winter. :(
The outlook for the week....cool to start off, then warming up into the 60s by Wed and Thursday. Not much precip expected this week, which is good. Snow melt is well underway and the CT river at West Lebanon flooded late Saturday. Its back down now, but it will be high for at least the next month. Any major rainstorms could mean flooding.
Meanwhile, the mtns picked up a few inches of snow today. So they added to their snow pack, which is still up to 70 inches deep in places. The pack is like a glacier, and its melting very slowly.
Not much else to talk about. Enjoy the week, after tomorrow. (40s tomrorow)
The outlook for the week....cool to start off, then warming up into the 60s by Wed and Thursday. Not much precip expected this week, which is good. Snow melt is well underway and the CT river at West Lebanon flooded late Saturday. Its back down now, but it will be high for at least the next month. Any major rainstorms could mean flooding.
Meanwhile, the mtns picked up a few inches of snow today. So they added to their snow pack, which is still up to 70 inches deep in places. The pack is like a glacier, and its melting very slowly.
Not much else to talk about. Enjoy the week, after tomorrow. (40s tomrorow)
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Fun Pictures
Not a lot to talk about tonight...so I thought I'd post some interesting pictures.
I didn't take these.
What do these pics have in common? They are all pics of hail! Some places had it 10-12 inches deep! I'm glad I didn't take those...
I didn't take these.
What do these pics have in common? They are all pics of hail! Some places had it 10-12 inches deep! I'm glad I didn't take those...
Monday, April 7, 2008
Cobalt Blue
It is a spectacular early spring day across the Upper Valley. Sunny, deep blue skies, with temperatures in the low 50s. Looking at visible satellite, I think we're set for a clear afternoon. The only thing that is taking away from a perfect day is the occasionally gusty wind.
As expected, there are some low clouds working into the coast, thanks to the northeast wind. Temps have dropped to the low 40s there, and will prob get into the upper 30s later, especially if any drizzle develops.
But not here! It won't get much warmer, but 53-55 is a pretty good bet this afternoon. Upper 50s to near 60 is possible Tuesday thru Thursday, and then we go the other way later this week with a cold rainstorm, possibly a big elevation snow storm in the mountains. But around here, it should stay rain. I guess we're getting to that time of year where it should rain, right?
As expected, there are some low clouds working into the coast, thanks to the northeast wind. Temps have dropped to the low 40s there, and will prob get into the upper 30s later, especially if any drizzle develops.
But not here! It won't get much warmer, but 53-55 is a pretty good bet this afternoon. Upper 50s to near 60 is possible Tuesday thru Thursday, and then we go the other way later this week with a cold rainstorm, possibly a big elevation snow storm in the mountains. But around here, it should stay rain. I guess we're getting to that time of year where it should rain, right?
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Cold Today, Nice Tomorrow, Miserable Friday
The title sums it up. Its windy and very chilly today. The cold front was a strong one and we're still feeling it today. Winds are gusting to 30 mph with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Tonight the winds won't die down too much, and temperatures will drop into the upper teens, so chills will be in the single digits. April!?
But Thursday is going to be a wonderful day. The wind will die off and the temperatures will recover beautifully. The average high is 50, and we'll make it to 50-55 during the afternoon, before high clouds move in late. Enjoy the day.
Friday looks miserable. Another storm is on the way. Last night I was hinting at possible accumulating snow around here, but it appears that any snow or mixed precip will quickly change to rain, with a southeast wind. Before the storm ends, the snow levels will prob drop to around 1000 feet, so it could end as snow in the local hills, but I think the majority of it will be rain. Temps will be in the low 30s early, then rise to near or slightly above 40, with a cold wind. Accumulating snow will be confined to the mountains.
Weekend looks good. Cool and blustery Saturday, in the 40s, then back into the 50s on Sunday. How about that? Another 50 degree day!
But Thursday is going to be a wonderful day. The wind will die off and the temperatures will recover beautifully. The average high is 50, and we'll make it to 50-55 during the afternoon, before high clouds move in late. Enjoy the day.
Friday looks miserable. Another storm is on the way. Last night I was hinting at possible accumulating snow around here, but it appears that any snow or mixed precip will quickly change to rain, with a southeast wind. Before the storm ends, the snow levels will prob drop to around 1000 feet, so it could end as snow in the local hills, but I think the majority of it will be rain. Temps will be in the low 30s early, then rise to near or slightly above 40, with a cold wind. Accumulating snow will be confined to the mountains.
Weekend looks good. Cool and blustery Saturday, in the 40s, then back into the 50s on Sunday. How about that? Another 50 degree day!
Summing it Up
It hit 64 in Lebanon, there was a nasty line of thunderstorms that hit just south of us, and some actual severe storms in MA, CT and NY. There was even a tornado warning in NJ! Not bad for April 1st. But its back to reality....Mount Washington is gusting to 100 mph, rain is changing to snow in the mtns, and the HPC has us under a risk of 4 inches of snow Friday. See map below.
Winter pattern till further notice....
Winter pattern till further notice....
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
If You Live in Plymouth, I'm Sorry
Cold Air Damming....or should I say....damning? More like a cruel April Fools joke. Temp in Plymouth is 41 degrees with a light NE wind. Everyone in the Pemi river valley is getting screwed out of warm weather right now. Fifteen miles southwest in ANdover, its 56. North in Whitefield its 60 and Berlin is 57. So the warm air is having all kinds of trouble penetrating through the White Mtns. That 50-80 inch snow pack is tough to get through. I still think they will warm up right ahead of the front, but it will be short lived, and will occur in the hills first, and the valley last. And 60 is almost out of the question, just be happy with 50-55 there, for like an hour.
Lebanon briefly hit 64 before 1pm, and now we've dropped to 59, but it will go back and forth before the cold front moves through. A line of showers is developing and moving into western New England. It will be in Lebanon after 2 or 3pm. Could be a downpour or a rumble of thunder, along with gusty winds.
Lebanon briefly hit 64 before 1pm, and now we've dropped to 59, but it will go back and forth before the cold front moves through. A line of showers is developing and moving into western New England. It will be in Lebanon after 2 or 3pm. Could be a downpour or a rumble of thunder, along with gusty winds.
In the 50s, ALMOST Everywhere
WHere the warm air has flooded in, it is extremely warm. Where it hasn't, the cold air is stubborn as hell! Its 54 in Lebanon right now, with temps near 60 in southern NH, all of this with no help of sunshine. That makes me think we'll hit 60 today.
But the Pemi River Valley is stuck in the mid 30s at this hour. This happens a lot, and its called cold air damming, when a shallow layer of dense cold air basically gets stuck at the surface while warm air rides above it. Its 52 degrees at 3300 feet on Mt Washington. Eventually, the inversion should break since the winds are somewhat gusty, and that should mix the atmosphere up, and break the inversion, but the deep glacier like snow pack in central NH is really screwin those folks over this morning. Hope for the best. A couple current temperatures...
Woodstock 35
Mount Washington Summit 37
Plymouth State 37
Laconia 37
Ashland 37
Sanbornton 46
Rochester 53
Mt Washington 3300 ft 52
Keene 54
Lebanon 54
Manchester 57
Nashua 60
Portsmouth 60
Derry 60
The warm air is almost into the Pemi Valley, but its going to take a bit longer. Prob till early afternoon.
A line of showers and thundershowers will roll through later, with gusty winds. I'll have an update on the high temperatures later.
But the Pemi River Valley is stuck in the mid 30s at this hour. This happens a lot, and its called cold air damming, when a shallow layer of dense cold air basically gets stuck at the surface while warm air rides above it. Its 52 degrees at 3300 feet on Mt Washington. Eventually, the inversion should break since the winds are somewhat gusty, and that should mix the atmosphere up, and break the inversion, but the deep glacier like snow pack in central NH is really screwin those folks over this morning. Hope for the best. A couple current temperatures...
Woodstock 35
Mount Washington Summit 37
Plymouth State 37
Laconia 37
Ashland 37
Sanbornton 46
Rochester 53
Mt Washington 3300 ft 52
Keene 54
Lebanon 54
Manchester 57
Nashua 60
Portsmouth 60
Derry 60
The warm air is almost into the Pemi Valley, but its going to take a bit longer. Prob till early afternoon.
A line of showers and thundershowers will roll through later, with gusty winds. I'll have an update on the high temperatures later.
Starting to Warm Up-Lots To Talk About
After a low of 3 Saturday night, we're going in the opposite direction tonight. In fact, temperatures are steady right now, in the mid 30s, and will be rising towards dawn, from hilltops to valleys. The warm air will work its way into the higher elevations first and then slowly make its way into the valleys. You can see it already on the Mt Washington autoroad temperature profile, where its 31 degrees at 1600 feet, but 43 degrees at 4000 feet, where the warm air is working in. Nice inversion.
Currently, the warmest temperatures are at the MA/NH border, anywhere west and south of the Green Mtns, and in the higher elevations, where its between 40-50 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are stuck in the 30s.
Current Temps
Plymouth 33 (550 ft)
Springfield VT (500 ft) 34
Lebanon 36 (600 ft)
Rutland, VT 43 (west of the greens)
Springfield NH 43 (1400 ft)
Westmoreland NH 45 (1145 ft)
Jaffrey 46 (1040 ft)
Orange, MA 48 (south of warm front)
Bennington VT 48 (west of the greens, and south of warm front)
Fitchburg, MA 53 (south of warm front)
Temps should eventually rise to near 40 by dawn in the lower elevations of the river valleys.
Tomorrow, winds will mix everything up and the mild air will be at all elevations. Add an hour or two of sunshine and we could be talking 60 degrees by later in the afternoon. The best chance for 60+ will be across southern NH and MA because they will start out the day in the 50s, but its possible here as well because we live in a north south valley, and there will be a screaming southwest wind, 20-30 mph with higher gusts in the afternoon.
Chances are we will remain in the 50s tomorrow, but there is an outside shot at cracking 60. No matter, a strong cold front will move in by evening with a band of showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, strong gusty winds, and a drop in temperatures. Rain will change to snow in the mtns with a couple inches possible there.
There is a flood watch for the entire state of Vermont, for ice jam flooding and snow melt flooding, thanks to the warm weather and rain coming. If you live near a small, flashy stream, pay close attention to it. It will be running high starting tomorrow, and probably get higher thorough the week. Snow is melting rapidly tonight because of dense fog and steadily rising temperatures. "Snow eating" fog! I think that my weeks end, there will be no snow left in the upper valley, except in the woods, and in piles. As long as we don't get another snowstorm that is....more on that later.
Locally, it will be blustery and cooler tomorrow night and Wednesday, but not as cold as this weekend. Prob 40-45. Then back to near 50 or slightly higher Thursday.
We need to watch Friday for a potential snow or rain storm. Latest models show more snow than rain. Few days to watch it.....
Hoping for 60 tomorrow. We haven't hit it all year!
Currently, the warmest temperatures are at the MA/NH border, anywhere west and south of the Green Mtns, and in the higher elevations, where its between 40-50 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are stuck in the 30s.
Current Temps
Plymouth 33 (550 ft)
Springfield VT (500 ft) 34
Lebanon 36 (600 ft)
Rutland, VT 43 (west of the greens)
Springfield NH 43 (1400 ft)
Westmoreland NH 45 (1145 ft)
Jaffrey 46 (1040 ft)
Orange, MA 48 (south of warm front)
Bennington VT 48 (west of the greens, and south of warm front)
Fitchburg, MA 53 (south of warm front)
Temps should eventually rise to near 40 by dawn in the lower elevations of the river valleys.
Tomorrow, winds will mix everything up and the mild air will be at all elevations. Add an hour or two of sunshine and we could be talking 60 degrees by later in the afternoon. The best chance for 60+ will be across southern NH and MA because they will start out the day in the 50s, but its possible here as well because we live in a north south valley, and there will be a screaming southwest wind, 20-30 mph with higher gusts in the afternoon.
Chances are we will remain in the 50s tomorrow, but there is an outside shot at cracking 60. No matter, a strong cold front will move in by evening with a band of showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, strong gusty winds, and a drop in temperatures. Rain will change to snow in the mtns with a couple inches possible there.
There is a flood watch for the entire state of Vermont, for ice jam flooding and snow melt flooding, thanks to the warm weather and rain coming. If you live near a small, flashy stream, pay close attention to it. It will be running high starting tomorrow, and probably get higher thorough the week. Snow is melting rapidly tonight because of dense fog and steadily rising temperatures. "Snow eating" fog! I think that my weeks end, there will be no snow left in the upper valley, except in the woods, and in piles. As long as we don't get another snowstorm that is....more on that later.
Locally, it will be blustery and cooler tomorrow night and Wednesday, but not as cold as this weekend. Prob 40-45. Then back to near 50 or slightly higher Thursday.
We need to watch Friday for a potential snow or rain storm. Latest models show more snow than rain. Few days to watch it.....
Hoping for 60 tomorrow. We haven't hit it all year!
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Last COLD Night Of The Season?
Perhaps....
The triple C....clear calm and cold tonight! Add a fresh snow cover and a winter pattern and you have a recipe for a damn cold night. Its already down to 14 in Lebanon, with the new update coming up in about 10 minutes. Hanover is about 16 degrees. By the time the temperature bottoms out slightly after dawn, it will probably be in the single digits at the airport, around 5. Let's see how close I get.
After tonight, we go in the other direction. There will be a big recovery tomorrow, but temperatures will still be below normal (around 40). The average high is 50 degrees. But considering the high was 28 today, I think we'll take 40 and like it.
Monday is a transition day. A warm front will push through and south winds will take over. There could be a touch of wet snow to start, but it should change to rain. Highs Monday should make the low 40s.
Which sets us up for Tuesday...
Out ahead of the cold front, mild southwest winds will bring much milder air into the region. With no sun, we'll hit the 50s, but with some breaks, we'll be 60 easy, and with a partly sunny afternoon, we'll be 65 or possibly a bit higher. So hope for sunshine. Or travel to eastern Massachusetts, where it will be at least 60-65, with low 70s possible with sunshine!
Then the cold front goes through with a line of showers and dare I say it, an isolated thunderstorm during the evening. After that, its back to reality Wed- Friday. But when I say reality, I mean normal to slightly below normal weather for this time of year...40s to near 50. Our snow pack should dwindle in a big way this week.
I don't think winter is over, but its definitely loosening its grip for now. We'll see if the snow yesterday was the final hit of the season, or maybe old man winter has another trick.
Temp down to 13 in Lebanon. Burr for March 30!
The triple C....clear calm and cold tonight! Add a fresh snow cover and a winter pattern and you have a recipe for a damn cold night. Its already down to 14 in Lebanon, with the new update coming up in about 10 minutes. Hanover is about 16 degrees. By the time the temperature bottoms out slightly after dawn, it will probably be in the single digits at the airport, around 5. Let's see how close I get.
After tonight, we go in the other direction. There will be a big recovery tomorrow, but temperatures will still be below normal (around 40). The average high is 50 degrees. But considering the high was 28 today, I think we'll take 40 and like it.
Monday is a transition day. A warm front will push through and south winds will take over. There could be a touch of wet snow to start, but it should change to rain. Highs Monday should make the low 40s.
Which sets us up for Tuesday...
Out ahead of the cold front, mild southwest winds will bring much milder air into the region. With no sun, we'll hit the 50s, but with some breaks, we'll be 60 easy, and with a partly sunny afternoon, we'll be 65 or possibly a bit higher. So hope for sunshine. Or travel to eastern Massachusetts, where it will be at least 60-65, with low 70s possible with sunshine!
Then the cold front goes through with a line of showers and dare I say it, an isolated thunderstorm during the evening. After that, its back to reality Wed- Friday. But when I say reality, I mean normal to slightly below normal weather for this time of year...40s to near 50. Our snow pack should dwindle in a big way this week.
I don't think winter is over, but its definitely loosening its grip for now. We'll see if the snow yesterday was the final hit of the season, or maybe old man winter has another trick.
Temp down to 13 in Lebanon. Burr for March 30!
Friday, March 28, 2008
Spring Snowstorm Winding Down
About five inches fell at the apartment. Not too shabby. Periodic light snow off and on this afternoon, with little accumulation.
Amounts pretty much ranged 4-8 inches. Score. I'm pretty sure isolated areas approached 10 inches, but there are no official measurements. Those were probably limited to elevations above 1500 feet.
Cold weekend ahead, especially Saturday...
Out ahead of a cold front, we could potentially hit 60+ next Tuesday. Ya heard it here first. ;-)
Amounts pretty much ranged 4-8 inches. Score. I'm pretty sure isolated areas approached 10 inches, but there are no official measurements. Those were probably limited to elevations above 1500 feet.
Cold weekend ahead, especially Saturday...
Out ahead of a cold front, we could potentially hit 60+ next Tuesday. Ya heard it here first. ;-)
Spring Snowstorm Underway
Snow is flying as I type this, from valley floor, to hilltop. I just got back inside, the temp down at the river is 35 degrees, and its about 33 up in Hanover, except 34 right along the road (mini urban heat island). Elevated areas are below freezing and I expect them to get hit very hard from this storm. There is already a dusting outside the apt. Looking at radar, we have a plume of moisture that will move through and get heavier during the night.
A northerly wind has taken over, so cold air is here to stay, with no major shadowing expected. With all that said, accumulations in the valley should be 4-8 inches, with 8+ inches above 1000 feet, possibly up to a foot. Snow will get out of here by afternoon. The heaviest will be first thing in the morning, and it should taper by afternoon. Since its so late in the year, the main roads will probably end up wet, especially as the snow lets up and the day wears on, but side streets will be nasty, and any road in the hills will probably be very bad for awhile.
Whoops, temp has dropped to 32 as I type this. Enjoy the snow. I know I will. :)
A northerly wind has taken over, so cold air is here to stay, with no major shadowing expected. With all that said, accumulations in the valley should be 4-8 inches, with 8+ inches above 1000 feet, possibly up to a foot. Snow will get out of here by afternoon. The heaviest will be first thing in the morning, and it should taper by afternoon. Since its so late in the year, the main roads will probably end up wet, especially as the snow lets up and the day wears on, but side streets will be nasty, and any road in the hills will probably be very bad for awhile.
Whoops, temp has dropped to 32 as I type this. Enjoy the snow. I know I will. :)
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Snow on The Way, Possibly Heavy?
I guess I'll start with the good news first. We have one more mild day ahead. Temperatures should hold in the mid to upper 40s. Now, onto the new news, snow is on the way, and it could be heavy, even in the upper valley.
The computer models, which had been trending the storm south, and away from the region, should come in and be a direct hit. A winter storm has been issued for 6+ inches of snow as far north as Sullivan County, and in my opinion, it should be extended further north.
Snow will come down heavy at times tonight and early tomorrow morning, and will probably end up snowing all day tomorrow, with a solid 3-5 inches in the valleys with 6 or more coming for the hills. I'll get into more detail in an update tonight.
Winter is not over yet.
The computer models, which had been trending the storm south, and away from the region, should come in and be a direct hit. A winter storm has been issued for 6+ inches of snow as far north as Sullivan County, and in my opinion, it should be extended further north.
Snow will come down heavy at times tonight and early tomorrow morning, and will probably end up snowing all day tomorrow, with a solid 3-5 inches in the valleys with 6 or more coming for the hills. I'll get into more detail in an update tonight.
Winter is not over yet.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Near 50 today
After a couple wet snow flakes this morning, its time to warm up. Its a fairly breezy afternoon, so it might not feel especially warm, but still, 50 is better than the 30s we've had for the last 5 days.
I'm about done with winter. Last night the HPC has us under a moderate risk of 8 inches of snow for Friday and Saturday morning. Now that risk has actually moved south to southern NH and northern MA...making it a close miss for us. Just light snow and cold. In other words, another nickel and dime thing. When its spring, I either want a big snow, or warm weather, so enough with this snow pretending to hit us. We're in a winter pattern now, so give us a damn storm or let spring get its ass in here...
I'm about done with winter. Last night the HPC has us under a moderate risk of 8 inches of snow for Friday and Saturday morning. Now that risk has actually moved south to southern NH and northern MA...making it a close miss for us. Just light snow and cold. In other words, another nickel and dime thing. When its spring, I either want a big snow, or warm weather, so enough with this snow pretending to hit us. We're in a winter pattern now, so give us a damn storm or let spring get its ass in here...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Rub It In Nantucket
At 8am, snow was falling across Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard and all of Cape Cod, while we were getting rain in Hanover and Lebanon. The atmosphere was so dry, there was some evaporational cooling all the way to the Cape and the islands, and it started as wet snow there. In fact, snow is still falling across southeast NH. That will prob last a couple more hours.
As for here, a slushy 1-2 inches of snow fell, followed by some rain mixed with sleet. Temp is 34 in Lebanon, 33 in Hanover, but its the middle of the day, and the sun angle is comparable to late September, so that is melting anything that hits the pavement.
It looks like rain will pickup this afternoon, and fall heavily at times tonight, then end tomorrow morning as some snow showers. The winds are going to be an issue, and a wind advisory with gusts to 40 or even 50 mph might have to be issued.
All th heavy snows are confined to the mountains. They're going to pick up 6-12+ through Friday.
The weather looks quiet, albeit cold for the weekend, with a potential storm threat early next week. Confidence extremely low.
As for here, a slushy 1-2 inches of snow fell, followed by some rain mixed with sleet. Temp is 34 in Lebanon, 33 in Hanover, but its the middle of the day, and the sun angle is comparable to late September, so that is melting anything that hits the pavement.
It looks like rain will pickup this afternoon, and fall heavily at times tonight, then end tomorrow morning as some snow showers. The winds are going to be an issue, and a wind advisory with gusts to 40 or even 50 mph might have to be issued.
All th heavy snows are confined to the mountains. They're going to pick up 6-12+ through Friday.
The weather looks quiet, albeit cold for the weekend, with a potential storm threat early next week. Confidence extremely low.
Steady Snow Falling
Snow update: I have a fever, and haven't paid close attention to this storm. Radar suggests steady snow, and looking out the window confirms this. Temperatures were originally above 32, but have dropped due to evaporational cooling, so its now 32 in Hanover and Lebanon. There is a heavy coating on the sidewalks and on the existing snowcover, so as long as the snow keeps falling at this intensity, we could pick up a couple inches tonight.
Its tough to predict what is going to happen later, but it looks like the snow might let up for a short time, or become intermittent. There is a break in the precipitation that goes from the VT NY border to about Binghamton and Elmira NY, but that precipitation shows signs of filling in. So the snow might let up for an hour or two, and then should pick up again towards dawn.
Lebanon has a southerly wind, and that should play a part in changing this wet snow over to rain fairly quickly tomorrow morning. There might be a period of sleet but I don't expect freezing rain since ground temperatures have warmed drastically in the past couple weeks.
A big wildcard is the elevated regions, above 1000 feet. Since its snowing steadily and accumulating here at the CT river, it will be worse in higher elevations. Also, sleet and freezing rain might be an issue up there tomorrow, but I don't expect a nasty ice accumulation since its very ;ate in the year for ice. Even above 1000 feet, I expect temperatures to get above freezing so any frozen precip will go over to rain.
In the mountains, expect a net gain of snow with several inches on the front end, then a potential ice storm, and then lots of upslope snow showers at the end. The potential exists for 6-12 inches when all is said and done up there. I'm going to do my best to spit out a forecast.
For the Upper Valley
Tonight: Snow of varying intensities, possibly mixing with sleet towards dawn. Lows near 29, rising towards 32 by dawn. Light wind mainly out of the south, 5-10 mph. Accumulations 1-3 inches, with up to 4 in the upper elevations.
Wednesday: Snow changing to sleet and possibly freezing rain, (esp in sheltered valleys) then rain from the CT valley floor to hilltops. Highs 34-40, warmest in the valley. South to southeast wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night: Rain or mixed precipitation ending as snow showers. Lows dropping into the 20s. Flash freeze possible after midnight. Winds switch to the northeast, then west by dawn, 10-20 mph with higher gusts, esp in the hills.
Thursday: Maybe an early morning snow shower, then partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly. Highs near 40. West winds in the 20-30 mph range.
The outlook for Friday and beyond is colder than normal (happy spring!)with temps in the mid 30s and lows in the teens. Big storms appear to be suppressed through at least Sunday or Monday. We need to watch the next couple weeks, because, we're in a winter pattern for the first time all year. (Believe it or not!
Ok, time to pass out. If I'm feeling good tomorrow, I'll try to have an in depth update.
Looking out the window, the snow has let up right now... its 1:23am...bedtime.
Its tough to predict what is going to happen later, but it looks like the snow might let up for a short time, or become intermittent. There is a break in the precipitation that goes from the VT NY border to about Binghamton and Elmira NY, but that precipitation shows signs of filling in. So the snow might let up for an hour or two, and then should pick up again towards dawn.
Lebanon has a southerly wind, and that should play a part in changing this wet snow over to rain fairly quickly tomorrow morning. There might be a period of sleet but I don't expect freezing rain since ground temperatures have warmed drastically in the past couple weeks.
A big wildcard is the elevated regions, above 1000 feet. Since its snowing steadily and accumulating here at the CT river, it will be worse in higher elevations. Also, sleet and freezing rain might be an issue up there tomorrow, but I don't expect a nasty ice accumulation since its very ;ate in the year for ice. Even above 1000 feet, I expect temperatures to get above freezing so any frozen precip will go over to rain.
In the mountains, expect a net gain of snow with several inches on the front end, then a potential ice storm, and then lots of upslope snow showers at the end. The potential exists for 6-12 inches when all is said and done up there. I'm going to do my best to spit out a forecast.
For the Upper Valley
Tonight: Snow of varying intensities, possibly mixing with sleet towards dawn. Lows near 29, rising towards 32 by dawn. Light wind mainly out of the south, 5-10 mph. Accumulations 1-3 inches, with up to 4 in the upper elevations.
Wednesday: Snow changing to sleet and possibly freezing rain, (esp in sheltered valleys) then rain from the CT valley floor to hilltops. Highs 34-40, warmest in the valley. South to southeast wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night: Rain or mixed precipitation ending as snow showers. Lows dropping into the 20s. Flash freeze possible after midnight. Winds switch to the northeast, then west by dawn, 10-20 mph with higher gusts, esp in the hills.
Thursday: Maybe an early morning snow shower, then partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly. Highs near 40. West winds in the 20-30 mph range.
The outlook for Friday and beyond is colder than normal (happy spring!)with temps in the mid 30s and lows in the teens. Big storms appear to be suppressed through at least Sunday or Monday. We need to watch the next couple weeks, because, we're in a winter pattern for the first time all year. (Believe it or not!
Ok, time to pass out. If I'm feeling good tomorrow, I'll try to have an in depth update.
Looking out the window, the snow has let up right now... its 1:23am...bedtime.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
The One That Got Away...
Satellite shot of the one that got away.
It has an eye-like structure!!
Newfoundland forecast....
"Snow will combine with high winds to give near zero visibilities in blowing snow tonight and Tuesday. Total snowfall accumulations from 45 to 60 centimetres are expected through Tuesday night.
A large and intense winter storm currently southeast of Nova Scotia will track very slowly northeastward to lie just south of the Grand Banks tonight where it will become nearly stationary. Snow and blowing snow associated with this system is presently affecting southeastern Newfoundland and will continue to spread northwestward tonight. Over central..Southern and northeastern Newfoundland snow and blowing snow will persist through Tuesday night. Total snowfall accumulations will range from 20 to 60 centimetres (8-24 inches) with the highest amounts over eastern Newfoundland. Over the Avalon the snow is forecast to change to freezing rain Tuesday morning then persist into Tuesday night as temperatures remain steady near or just below zero. Additionally very strong north to northeasterly winds gusting up to 80 km/h (50 mph) inland and to 120 km/h (75 mph) over coastal areas will accompany this system giving blowing snow and widespread reduced visibilities. Higher than normal water levels can also be expected along parts of the east coast an d northeast coast tonight and Tuesday especially in any areas of open water where large waves can develop."
So in other words, we missed a "blizzicane." :)
Thats ok, snow is on the way tomorrow night and Wednesday, and it could actually be a good hit. I'll have a first guess on accumulations tomorrow.
It has an eye-like structure!!
Newfoundland forecast....
"Snow will combine with high winds to give near zero visibilities in blowing snow tonight and Tuesday. Total snowfall accumulations from 45 to 60 centimetres are expected through Tuesday night.
A large and intense winter storm currently southeast of Nova Scotia will track very slowly northeastward to lie just south of the Grand Banks tonight where it will become nearly stationary. Snow and blowing snow associated with this system is presently affecting southeastern Newfoundland and will continue to spread northwestward tonight. Over central..Southern and northeastern Newfoundland snow and blowing snow will persist through Tuesday night. Total snowfall accumulations will range from 20 to 60 centimetres (8-24 inches) with the highest amounts over eastern Newfoundland. Over the Avalon the snow is forecast to change to freezing rain Tuesday morning then persist into Tuesday night as temperatures remain steady near or just below zero. Additionally very strong north to northeasterly winds gusting up to 80 km/h (50 mph) inland and to 120 km/h (75 mph) over coastal areas will accompany this system giving blowing snow and widespread reduced visibilities. Higher than normal water levels can also be expected along parts of the east coast an d northeast coast tonight and Tuesday especially in any areas of open water where large waves can develop."
So in other words, we missed a "blizzicane." :)
Thats ok, snow is on the way tomorrow night and Wednesday, and it could actually be a good hit. I'll have a first guess on accumulations tomorrow.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
A slight deviation from weather....
Its Sunday...and I don't feel like talking about weather. So silly pictures instead....
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
From A Badly Burned Weather Weenie...
While we're swimming in snow, places south of Boston didn't get much of anything this year. In fact, travel down to NYC and New Jersey....and there has been under 10 inches total. I frequent a weather forum and this person posted this. Maybe its because its late...or maybe this is really funny. But I'm still laughing at what he had to say. He wrote to mother nature. :)
"Well, there are finally indications that you are going to let the NAO get negative and maybe allow some of us to actually see snow before summer is upon us. I just want to be clear on one thing, B***H. Do not think for one second that you can toss a late season snowstorm at me and have me immediately forget what you've inflicted on us this winter and go right back to way things used to be. Just because you spread your legs and I am willing to jump into bed does NOT mean that I forgive you. It only means I am willing to use you, just as you have used me. If you treat me fairly (and, yes, all I ask is fairness... I do NOT require another 1995/96, et al), maybe... MAYBE... I will be able to open my heart again someday and find a way to forgive you. Until that day, I will still respond when you send a snow threat this way, but it will be more like the response of Pavlov's dogs to the bell rather than any real love or respect on my part. My love and respect will have to be earned all over again starting with one.... ONE.... freakin' snowstorm.... YOU #@*&-ING WH*RE!!!!"
People think I like snow. This is just too much....and it made my night. I think I'll stop complaining about the 90 inches we've had.
Oh, and to all the complainers who hate the snow...this picture is for you.
"Well, there are finally indications that you are going to let the NAO get negative and maybe allow some of us to actually see snow before summer is upon us. I just want to be clear on one thing, B***H. Do not think for one second that you can toss a late season snowstorm at me and have me immediately forget what you've inflicted on us this winter and go right back to way things used to be. Just because you spread your legs and I am willing to jump into bed does NOT mean that I forgive you. It only means I am willing to use you, just as you have used me. If you treat me fairly (and, yes, all I ask is fairness... I do NOT require another 1995/96, et al), maybe... MAYBE... I will be able to open my heart again someday and find a way to forgive you. Until that day, I will still respond when you send a snow threat this way, but it will be more like the response of Pavlov's dogs to the bell rather than any real love or respect on my part. My love and respect will have to be earned all over again starting with one.... ONE.... freakin' snowstorm.... YOU #@*&-ING WH*RE!!!!"
People think I like snow. This is just too much....and it made my night. I think I'll stop complaining about the 90 inches we've had.
Oh, and to all the complainers who hate the snow...this picture is for you.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Snow Amounts-Elevations Only
At the apt, we picked up a slushy inch that was gone in about hour after everything ended. Backcountry weather conditions 2-3 inches in the White Mtns.
MASSACHUSETTS
...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...
GOSHEN 3.0 900 AM SPOTTER
WORTHINGTON 2.1 700 AM NWS COOP
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
PEPPERELL 1.5 845 AM SPOTTER
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
MILTON 0.9 900 AM BLUE HILL
...WORCESTER COUNTY...
STERLING 2.0 842 AM SPOTTER
BOYLSTON 1.9 1044 AM SPOTTER
WORCESTER 1.7 734 PM AIRPORT (ORH)
NEW HAMPSHIRE
...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
RINDGE 3.0 858 AM SPOTTER
WALPOLE 2.0 705 AM NWS COOP
...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
WILTON 3.3 1030 AM SPOTTER
SOUTH WEARE 3.1 732 AM SPOTTER
FRANCESTOWN 2.0 700 AM NWS COOP
ALl in all, I did ok. I'm glad I didn't up my snow amounts, and bite on that doom and gloom computer model. I figured 1-2 inches in the lower elevations of the upper valley, and we got that, and 3-6 inches in the elevated areas of southern NH, and we barely picked that up.
I'll try to post tomorrow on the potential winter pattern we might be getting into as we head into spring...
MASSACHUSETTS
...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...
GOSHEN 3.0 900 AM SPOTTER
WORTHINGTON 2.1 700 AM NWS COOP
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
PEPPERELL 1.5 845 AM SPOTTER
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
MILTON 0.9 900 AM BLUE HILL
...WORCESTER COUNTY...
STERLING 2.0 842 AM SPOTTER
BOYLSTON 1.9 1044 AM SPOTTER
WORCESTER 1.7 734 PM AIRPORT (ORH)
NEW HAMPSHIRE
...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
RINDGE 3.0 858 AM SPOTTER
WALPOLE 2.0 705 AM NWS COOP
...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
WILTON 3.3 1030 AM SPOTTER
SOUTH WEARE 3.1 732 AM SPOTTER
FRANCESTOWN 2.0 700 AM NWS COOP
ALl in all, I did ok. I'm glad I didn't up my snow amounts, and bite on that doom and gloom computer model. I figured 1-2 inches in the lower elevations of the upper valley, and we got that, and 3-6 inches in the elevated areas of southern NH, and we barely picked that up.
I'll try to post tomorrow on the potential winter pattern we might be getting into as we head into spring...
Friday, March 14, 2008
Terrific
I should have waited for the latest models to roll out.
The latest GFS slams 800-1000 foot areas of central MA and southern NH with 10 inches of snow, with a changeover making it all the way to Boston. This would spell 2-4 inches of snow, even in the lower elevations of southern NH and MA. I'm still not changing my forecast because this is one model run, but I expect some sort of advisory to be issued tonight, especially for elevated areas.
Updates later.
The latest GFS slams 800-1000 foot areas of central MA and southern NH with 10 inches of snow, with a changeover making it all the way to Boston. This would spell 2-4 inches of snow, even in the lower elevations of southern NH and MA. I'm still not changing my forecast because this is one model run, but I expect some sort of advisory to be issued tonight, especially for elevated areas.
Updates later.
Low Confidence
Just what people want to hear...another low confidence forecast for the next rain and snow storm. Lots of factors.
1) Mild temperatures this afternoon: Highs will make it into at least the mid 40s in Lebanon, and 45-52 in southern NH and northern MA.
2) Timing of the storm: The heaviest will fall during the overnight hours, which could maximize the chance of snow, but with so much warm air around, it depends on where you live.
3) Elevation: This storm will be very elevation dependent, meaning, the higher you live, the more snow you're likely to pick up.
4) Intensity of precipitation: The heavier it is, the better chance that colder air gets dragged down from above and it changes the rain over to heavy, wet snow later tonight.
5) Cutoff: There appears to be a sharp cutoff in the precipitation, meaning, west of the CT River Valley, there won't be much of anything. Lebanon is in the valley, so it is going to be a very close call here. We could be on the 1-2 inch line, or the 2-5 inch line very easily, within 5-10 miles.
Putting it all together
Southern NH, Northern MA
Rain should move in during the mid evening across western New England and come down light to moderate at times. After midnight, cold air will filter in at the upper elevations and should change the rain over to wet snow, and if it comes down hard enough, there will be a complete changeover to the valley floor early. The best estimate for snow is 1-2 inches of glop on the grass in the valleys with up to four inches in slightly elevated areas (400-800 feet) and potentially 4-6 inches in the Monadnocks or above 800-1000 feet. If the precipitation is light, it will be mostly rain, with lighter snow at the end, and little accumulation. If its heavy, there will be beautiful snow sticking to the trees by the time the snow gets out of here Saturday morning.
Upper Valley
Elevation will play a role here as well, with rain to start, changing to snow. The valley will probably pick up 1-3 inches, with 2-5 inches in the hills. We're right on the line of the light, and steady precipitation, so it is a close call for the heavier snow. If it moves just a few miles west, we'll be talking 2-5 inches with 4-6 in the hills.
Updates tonight when everything is underway.
1) Mild temperatures this afternoon: Highs will make it into at least the mid 40s in Lebanon, and 45-52 in southern NH and northern MA.
2) Timing of the storm: The heaviest will fall during the overnight hours, which could maximize the chance of snow, but with so much warm air around, it depends on where you live.
3) Elevation: This storm will be very elevation dependent, meaning, the higher you live, the more snow you're likely to pick up.
4) Intensity of precipitation: The heavier it is, the better chance that colder air gets dragged down from above and it changes the rain over to heavy, wet snow later tonight.
5) Cutoff: There appears to be a sharp cutoff in the precipitation, meaning, west of the CT River Valley, there won't be much of anything. Lebanon is in the valley, so it is going to be a very close call here. We could be on the 1-2 inch line, or the 2-5 inch line very easily, within 5-10 miles.
Putting it all together
Southern NH, Northern MA
Rain should move in during the mid evening across western New England and come down light to moderate at times. After midnight, cold air will filter in at the upper elevations and should change the rain over to wet snow, and if it comes down hard enough, there will be a complete changeover to the valley floor early. The best estimate for snow is 1-2 inches of glop on the grass in the valleys with up to four inches in slightly elevated areas (400-800 feet) and potentially 4-6 inches in the Monadnocks or above 800-1000 feet. If the precipitation is light, it will be mostly rain, with lighter snow at the end, and little accumulation. If its heavy, there will be beautiful snow sticking to the trees by the time the snow gets out of here Saturday morning.
Upper Valley
Elevation will play a role here as well, with rain to start, changing to snow. The valley will probably pick up 1-3 inches, with 2-5 inches in the hills. We're right on the line of the light, and steady precipitation, so it is a close call for the heavier snow. If it moves just a few miles west, we'll be talking 2-5 inches with 4-6 in the hills.
Updates tonight when everything is underway.
Snow On The Way
No big storms are coming, like I hinted at in the last blog. The computer models are agreeing on a southern track for Sunday's storm, with the closest model bringing a windy snow or rainstorm to Cape Cod up to Plymouth MA. But we have to turn our attention to another storm, that is only 24 hours away. I'll lay the frames for it tonight, and try to go into detail tomorrow.
The potential is there for several inches of snow tomorrow night and Saturday morning, as a low pressure system quickly passes south of New England. Temperatures are going to be marginal in southern NH and northern MA, and with temperatures going up into the 50s tomorrow, chances are this will start as rain. Here in the upper valley, it will probably start as rain as well, but transition over to snow earlier.
As cold air works in to the storm, and if it comes down hard enough, the rain will change over to snow in southern NH. One model shows a pretty good dousing of liquid equivalent precipitation late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and a good amount of that could be snow.
We're getting closer to spring now, so elevation will play a large factor, meaning, the higher elevations will pick up more. Early estimates would be an advisory level snow is possible, meaning 3-6 inches in the hills of northern MA and southern NH, and 1-3 inches in the valleys. Here in the upper valley, a general 2-5 inches is expected, with 4-6+ possible above 1000 feet. The White Mtns and northern New England might actually miss the heaviest precipitation this time.
Important update tomorrow morning...temperatures are going to be very marginal in southern NH and northern MA, so elevation will make all the difference in the world.
The potential is there for several inches of snow tomorrow night and Saturday morning, as a low pressure system quickly passes south of New England. Temperatures are going to be marginal in southern NH and northern MA, and with temperatures going up into the 50s tomorrow, chances are this will start as rain. Here in the upper valley, it will probably start as rain as well, but transition over to snow earlier.
As cold air works in to the storm, and if it comes down hard enough, the rain will change over to snow in southern NH. One model shows a pretty good dousing of liquid equivalent precipitation late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and a good amount of that could be snow.
We're getting closer to spring now, so elevation will play a large factor, meaning, the higher elevations will pick up more. Early estimates would be an advisory level snow is possible, meaning 3-6 inches in the hills of northern MA and southern NH, and 1-3 inches in the valleys. Here in the upper valley, a general 2-5 inches is expected, with 4-6+ possible above 1000 feet. The White Mtns and northern New England might actually miss the heaviest precipitation this time.
Important update tomorrow morning...temperatures are going to be very marginal in southern NH and northern MA, so elevation will make all the difference in the world.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Quick Post
The NAM computer model and GFS computer model are beginning to agree...on a potential New England snowstorm Sunday. The NAM slams us, and the GFS gives interior southern New England a pretty decent blizzard...yes blizzard.
Still a few more days to look at this. I think the computer models are starting to come to a solution now. There is real potential here, for at least a southern New England snowstorm this weekend, and potentially all of New England. Not much more to say, just that the storm is trending towards the coast. This needs to be watched.
Still a few more days to look at this. I think the computer models are starting to come to a solution now. There is real potential here, for at least a southern New England snowstorm this weekend, and potentially all of New England. Not much more to say, just that the storm is trending towards the coast. This needs to be watched.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Looking Ahead to Spring.....What Could It Bring?
It's March 12th, so people are ready for spring. Hell, some are ready for summer. I don't want to sound "doom and gloom," but I thought I'd mention this because we already had to deal with it this weekend.
,
There is a very real threat of flooding this spring across all of New England. Not only has there been near record snowfall in many areas (and by the way, winter isn't over yet, and we're probably not realistically out of the woods until April), but the water equivalent of the snow is extraordinarily high this year. The snow pack in the White and Green Mtns isn't unusually high for winters in the past, but it is higher than the last couple of winters. The combination of a deep snow pack and high water equivalent will lead to cause significant melting and the potential for flooding in a couple of weeks. Here are a couple of pictures. First, the snow pack....
Apologies for the lack of legend...I'll explain what the colors mean.
There is a solid 50+ inches of snow on the ground across much of NH, VT, and ME with more in the higher elevations. Its not impossible that snow depths are up around or possibly exceeding 100 inches along favored ridges. Again, thats actually not completely uncommon. But here is what make things interesting....the water equivalent.
Explanation: There is, on average, 10-20 inches of water equivalent in the snow. We picked up another 1-2 inches this weekend, and the snow acted like a sponge and just absorbed it, and locked the water in for later. It also glazed over on the trees, and there is 2-4 inches of glaze on some trees above 3500 feet in parts of the White Mtns.
Example of the glaze, taken this weekend. This isn't my picture.
http://rbhayes.net/latest/Darlene-W48/images/IMG_9216.jpg
I did take pics from a hike, and I'll try to get them posted later. The snow depths are amazing. Trees are just barely sticking out at this point...
Anyways, no matter how slow the melt is this year, we really can't avoid the flooding threat. And I think there is more winter ahead of us, because northern New England might be going into a colder than normal pattern starting next weekend, so any precipitation chances could be in the form of snow. Plus, we haven't had a classic nor'easter all year, and the pattern is shaping up that is a bit more conducive for those to form. These are all "what ifs" of course...
But even if we don't get one more inch of snow this year, the flooding threat is real, and we'll be dealing with it through May. The snow pack isn't going anywhere for awhile, and its hard as a rock up north, like a glacier actually. And there is a good chance it will be hanging around through June in the higher elevations, even outside of the normal places like Tuckerman Ravine.
BTW, Concord has picked up over 109 inches of snow for the season. They need a little under 13 inches to record their snowiest season on record.
,
There is a very real threat of flooding this spring across all of New England. Not only has there been near record snowfall in many areas (and by the way, winter isn't over yet, and we're probably not realistically out of the woods until April), but the water equivalent of the snow is extraordinarily high this year. The snow pack in the White and Green Mtns isn't unusually high for winters in the past, but it is higher than the last couple of winters. The combination of a deep snow pack and high water equivalent will lead to cause significant melting and the potential for flooding in a couple of weeks. Here are a couple of pictures. First, the snow pack....
Apologies for the lack of legend...I'll explain what the colors mean.
There is a solid 50+ inches of snow on the ground across much of NH, VT, and ME with more in the higher elevations. Its not impossible that snow depths are up around or possibly exceeding 100 inches along favored ridges. Again, thats actually not completely uncommon. But here is what make things interesting....the water equivalent.
Explanation: There is, on average, 10-20 inches of water equivalent in the snow. We picked up another 1-2 inches this weekend, and the snow acted like a sponge and just absorbed it, and locked the water in for later. It also glazed over on the trees, and there is 2-4 inches of glaze on some trees above 3500 feet in parts of the White Mtns.
Example of the glaze, taken this weekend. This isn't my picture.
http://rbhayes.net/latest/Darlene-W48/images/IMG_9216.jpg
I did take pics from a hike, and I'll try to get them posted later. The snow depths are amazing. Trees are just barely sticking out at this point...
Anyways, no matter how slow the melt is this year, we really can't avoid the flooding threat. And I think there is more winter ahead of us, because northern New England might be going into a colder than normal pattern starting next weekend, so any precipitation chances could be in the form of snow. Plus, we haven't had a classic nor'easter all year, and the pattern is shaping up that is a bit more conducive for those to form. These are all "what ifs" of course...
But even if we don't get one more inch of snow this year, the flooding threat is real, and we'll be dealing with it through May. The snow pack isn't going anywhere for awhile, and its hard as a rock up north, like a glacier actually. And there is a good chance it will be hanging around through June in the higher elevations, even outside of the normal places like Tuckerman Ravine.
BTW, Concord has picked up over 109 inches of snow for the season. They need a little under 13 inches to record their snowiest season on record.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Model Inconsistency
This is why I don't normally get all excited about a big storm 5-6 days ahead of time. The beautiful storm that was modeled last night, and this morning, is now gone. Actually, the model I posted last night was the only one that had latched onto that solution, and now it is trending toward the other ones, a miss for everybody. But its still several days away, and will jump another 200 miles in either direction 10 more times through Friday. For giggles, I'm going to post the very latest GFS computer model. Last night and this morning, we were getting hit HARD. Now, nothing. Time to figure out if this is just a model "fart" or a real trend. I'm leaning toward a trend since the other computers models really don't have a New England snowstorm. Plenty of time to watch.
Beautiful Storm on Computer Models
Well, one computer model anyways. Talk about a St Patricks Day delight....
People are sick of winter....bitching every day, and I load up the GFS, check out the patterns of a potential negative NAO, and see this storm bombing off Cape Cod, right near the benchmark. Taken verbatim, this has the potential to produce big snows from New Jersey to Maine. But it will probably change 47 times thru Sunday.
The storm would be sometime later this weekend, if it verified. Too much time for it to change...but something that needs to be watched very closely. The transition month of December was a bear around here, so the transition month of March could be just as bad. Plus, we haven't had a classic nor'easter all year!
So, here is the storm all the weather weenies are getting wood to....
People are sick of winter....bitching every day, and I load up the GFS, check out the patterns of a potential negative NAO, and see this storm bombing off Cape Cod, right near the benchmark. Taken verbatim, this has the potential to produce big snows from New Jersey to Maine. But it will probably change 47 times thru Sunday.
The storm would be sometime later this weekend, if it verified. Too much time for it to change...but something that needs to be watched very closely. The transition month of December was a bear around here, so the transition month of March could be just as bad. Plus, we haven't had a classic nor'easter all year!
So, here is the storm all the weather weenies are getting wood to....
Sunday, March 9, 2008
From the Gray Maine forecast discussion...
"WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS. ICE HAS BEEN MOVING ON
SEERAL RIVERS. THERE IS STILL A FLOOD WARNING ON THE SACO AT
CONWAY DUE TO AN ICE JAM. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE
PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT PLYMOUTH FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING."
I'm in Plymouth right now. Hope all is well. A few years ago an ice jam snuck up on Plymouth and destroyed hundreds of cars parked in their PE center. Many floated miles downstream. It was literally a disaster.
Here is the current state of the Pemigewasset River in Plymouth.
The blue line shows that the river crested at 11.26 ft earlier today, and hopefully the drop will continue. But with ice jams, you never know, and the water level could spike up in minutes. Hopefully everyone is on guard and ready to take action just in case there is a flood, because the PE center is on the flood plain, and many park their cars there.
Anyways, I'll be hone later. I went hiking today and I'll post some pics of it.
"WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS. ICE HAS BEEN MOVING ON
SEERAL RIVERS. THERE IS STILL A FLOOD WARNING ON THE SACO AT
CONWAY DUE TO AN ICE JAM. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE
PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT PLYMOUTH FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING."
I'm in Plymouth right now. Hope all is well. A few years ago an ice jam snuck up on Plymouth and destroyed hundreds of cars parked in their PE center. Many floated miles downstream. It was literally a disaster.
Here is the current state of the Pemigewasset River in Plymouth.
The blue line shows that the river crested at 11.26 ft earlier today, and hopefully the drop will continue. But with ice jams, you never know, and the water level could spike up in minutes. Hopefully everyone is on guard and ready to take action just in case there is a flood, because the PE center is on the flood plain, and many park their cars there.
Anyways, I'll be hone later. I went hiking today and I'll post some pics of it.
Friday, March 7, 2008
NWS WInter Weather Advisory
While I don't necessarily agree with it, there is a winter weather advisory for the area, so I thought I'd just post what it says.
NHZ003-005-006-080500-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0009.080308T0000Z-080309T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0010.080308T0100Z-080309T1200Z/
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITTLETON...LEBANON...HANOVER...
PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO
344 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
EXPECT A STORM TOTAL OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE.
PRECIPITATION WILL START THIS EVENING AS SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN SPOTS. EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
EXPECT A BREAK SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO VARY BY ELEVATION...WITH ELEVATIONS
OVER 1000 FEET LIKELY SEEING GREATER ICE ACCRETION THAN THE
VALLEYS.
We'll see what happens. Its 46 in Lebanon right now, precip still many hours off. Have a good weekend!
NHZ003-005-006-080500-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0009.080308T0000Z-080309T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0010.080308T0100Z-080309T1200Z/
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITTLETON...LEBANON...HANOVER...
PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO
344 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
EXPECT A STORM TOTAL OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE.
PRECIPITATION WILL START THIS EVENING AS SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN SPOTS. EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
EXPECT A BREAK SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO VARY BY ELEVATION...WITH ELEVATIONS
OVER 1000 FEET LIKELY SEEING GREATER ICE ACCRETION THAN THE
VALLEYS.
We'll see what happens. Its 46 in Lebanon right now, precip still many hours off. Have a good weekend!
More Wet Than White
I'm hesitant to post this before looking at all the latest data, but looking at the precipitation on radar, and looking at trends, this storm looks like more of a wet storm than a white storm for the local area. Winds have already switched to the southeast at the airport, which normally means a warm storm in the valley, and I'm pretty confident about this.
The storm will come in two hits. Tonight, its forecast to come in after 1 am, but looking at radar, the precip is way ahead of schedule so I'd say sometime between 7 and 10pm. Dew points are in the 20s, so there will be some evaporational cooling at the start, so temperatures might cool towards freezing at the onset, allowing for some sleet or wet snow to mix in, but I still think that this is going to be primarily a rain storm for the area despite the winter storm watch and the current NWS forecast. If we get heavy precipitation tonight, cold air will work down from upper levels and we will get a longer period of sleet or wet snow, so that is the only thing that has to be watched. Despite the track of the storm (south of us), there is too much warm air aloft and we hit the upper 40s today, so there is a lot of warm air to go around.
Tomorrow, the next storm will move through and it means business. The expected track will be west of us, and that means rain, and possibly a couple thunderstorms, especially in southern New England. The best chance of any significant ice appears to be in the Champlain Valley in NW Vermont, and possibly where some cold air damming sets up in northern New England. But not here.
Snow chances will be limited to extreme northern New England where 2-5 or maybe 6+ will fall in the White Mtns, esp on the back side of the storm with upslope, and the jackpot will be extreme northern Maine, with a solid 12+ inches of snow.
Something to consider....flooding. Approximately 1-3 inches of rain will fall this weekend, and snow is going to melt. Hopefully temperatures will stay cool enough and the snow will absorb the rainfall, but if it doesn't Saturday afternoon and night could be very messy with minor to moderate flooding in prone areas. The immediate threats appear to be southern New England, where 3+ inches of rain is possible, and temperatures are expected to mid to upper 40s, along with "snow eating" fog. But it is something that needs to be watched across all of New England, especially if there is an ice jam, since most rivers are still ice covered.
Sunday looks better. Sunny, breezy, and in the low to mid 30s. Flash freeze possible Saturday night.
Updates if I get a chance this weekend. I'll be gone.
The storm will come in two hits. Tonight, its forecast to come in after 1 am, but looking at radar, the precip is way ahead of schedule so I'd say sometime between 7 and 10pm. Dew points are in the 20s, so there will be some evaporational cooling at the start, so temperatures might cool towards freezing at the onset, allowing for some sleet or wet snow to mix in, but I still think that this is going to be primarily a rain storm for the area despite the winter storm watch and the current NWS forecast. If we get heavy precipitation tonight, cold air will work down from upper levels and we will get a longer period of sleet or wet snow, so that is the only thing that has to be watched. Despite the track of the storm (south of us), there is too much warm air aloft and we hit the upper 40s today, so there is a lot of warm air to go around.
Tomorrow, the next storm will move through and it means business. The expected track will be west of us, and that means rain, and possibly a couple thunderstorms, especially in southern New England. The best chance of any significant ice appears to be in the Champlain Valley in NW Vermont, and possibly where some cold air damming sets up in northern New England. But not here.
Snow chances will be limited to extreme northern New England where 2-5 or maybe 6+ will fall in the White Mtns, esp on the back side of the storm with upslope, and the jackpot will be extreme northern Maine, with a solid 12+ inches of snow.
Something to consider....flooding. Approximately 1-3 inches of rain will fall this weekend, and snow is going to melt. Hopefully temperatures will stay cool enough and the snow will absorb the rainfall, but if it doesn't Saturday afternoon and night could be very messy with minor to moderate flooding in prone areas. The immediate threats appear to be southern New England, where 3+ inches of rain is possible, and temperatures are expected to mid to upper 40s, along with "snow eating" fog. But it is something that needs to be watched across all of New England, especially if there is an ice jam, since most rivers are still ice covered.
Sunday looks better. Sunny, breezy, and in the low to mid 30s. Flash freeze possible Saturday night.
Updates if I get a chance this weekend. I'll be gone.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Quick Update
North South Valley screwed us....err saved us again. The cold air never really told hold last night and then when the southeast wind took over this morning warm air flooded all levels and changed any frozen precipitation over to rain. It was definitely borderline in the first place, with sleet when the precip was heavy, and some freezing rain when it was lighter. I'm curious as to how elevations above 1500 feet, away from the CT valley fared.
Another storm slated for early this weekend (possibly big)! Early call looks like snow to rain in southern NH, and possibly all snow here. But one storm at a time!
Another storm slated for early this weekend (possibly big)! Early call looks like snow to rain in southern NH, and possibly all snow here. But one storm at a time!
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Kitchen Sink On the Way
Possible significant ice storm on the way, especially across elevated areas...
Last night was an interesting one. Locations with a direct south wind were in the 40s all evening and slowly dropped into the upper 30s before the precipitation moved in, but areas that were protected from the wind dropped into the low and mid 30s and had black ice form on untreated surfaces, and then down along the CT river, there was actually a light north wind (talk about inversion!) with a temperature of 25 degrees at midnight. So there were some extremely icy spots this morning as I had feared, but now those are gone since we're all in the 40s out ahead of the cold front. Once that front moves through, the stage will be set for a potentially significant sleet/ice storm.
The cold front has just moved through Hanover as our winds have switched from SW to NW and the pressure is rising. Now we wait to see how much cold air bleeds into the valley. It will definitely work into the hills around 1000-2000 feet, but just how much settles in to the lower valley will play a big role on how much freezing rain accretes.
For what its worth, a winter storm warning is in effect from 7pm tonight till 4pm Wednesday afternoon, for the moderate to heavy precip that moves as in temps drop below freezing.
Here is my best guess:
Lebanon starts out with some sleet or icy snow and change over to sleet for a short period and then go over to plain sleet for a couple hours, and then freezing rain towards midnight. This is important because sleet is easier to drive on than freezing rain, and if the cold is more shallow initially, there will be more freezing rain, and driving conditions will be much worse tonight. Winds will be out of the east, and there will be classic cold air damming below 2000 ft. This means that the cold air will be very difficult to budge tomorrow, and temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. In the end, with a 10-15 south wind taking over Wednesday, I think Lebanon will change over to plain rain before the storm ends, but not before a decent amount of ice accretes to sidewalks, trees, powerlines, and roads. Locations protected from the wind probably won't get above freezing tomorrow, and elevated locations will prob stay below freezing, so there, significant ice accumulation is likely. The worst case scenario will be averted in the valley because of the speed of the storm, the eventual change to rain, but if you live up in the hills, power outages are definitely likely. Its possible that one inch of ice could build up on powerlines there. I'd say 1/4 to 1/2 inch will add up in the valley, depending on your location. The mixed precip should be out of here by late tomorrow afternoon.
Ice storms are more difficult to predict than snowstorms, so I'll have an update tonight.
Last night was an interesting one. Locations with a direct south wind were in the 40s all evening and slowly dropped into the upper 30s before the precipitation moved in, but areas that were protected from the wind dropped into the low and mid 30s and had black ice form on untreated surfaces, and then down along the CT river, there was actually a light north wind (talk about inversion!) with a temperature of 25 degrees at midnight. So there were some extremely icy spots this morning as I had feared, but now those are gone since we're all in the 40s out ahead of the cold front. Once that front moves through, the stage will be set for a potentially significant sleet/ice storm.
The cold front has just moved through Hanover as our winds have switched from SW to NW and the pressure is rising. Now we wait to see how much cold air bleeds into the valley. It will definitely work into the hills around 1000-2000 feet, but just how much settles in to the lower valley will play a big role on how much freezing rain accretes.
For what its worth, a winter storm warning is in effect from 7pm tonight till 4pm Wednesday afternoon, for the moderate to heavy precip that moves as in temps drop below freezing.
Here is my best guess:
Lebanon starts out with some sleet or icy snow and change over to sleet for a short period and then go over to plain sleet for a couple hours, and then freezing rain towards midnight. This is important because sleet is easier to drive on than freezing rain, and if the cold is more shallow initially, there will be more freezing rain, and driving conditions will be much worse tonight. Winds will be out of the east, and there will be classic cold air damming below 2000 ft. This means that the cold air will be very difficult to budge tomorrow, and temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. In the end, with a 10-15 south wind taking over Wednesday, I think Lebanon will change over to plain rain before the storm ends, but not before a decent amount of ice accretes to sidewalks, trees, powerlines, and roads. Locations protected from the wind probably won't get above freezing tomorrow, and elevated locations will prob stay below freezing, so there, significant ice accumulation is likely. The worst case scenario will be averted in the valley because of the speed of the storm, the eventual change to rain, but if you live up in the hills, power outages are definitely likely. Its possible that one inch of ice could build up on powerlines there. I'd say 1/4 to 1/2 inch will add up in the valley, depending on your location. The mixed precip should be out of here by late tomorrow afternoon.
Ice storms are more difficult to predict than snowstorms, so I'll have an update tonight.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Drip, drip, drip....for now
Low temperatures are very difficult to predict. I expected it to get below zero last night since we were dropping like a rock, but it stopped dropping at 3 (not that anyone really notices the difference between 3 and -3). High clouds moved in and the southerly flow took hold. Now, the temperature is already up to 35, despite cloudy skies. There is some light precipitation to our north, and it should stay away, but there is an outside chance of a few sprinkles or sleet pellets this afternoon. Nothing to worry about, temperatures will be in the low 40s.
Tonight is still intriguing, because despite the southwest wind, our temperatures will drop to near freezing, and if we get some spotty light precipitation, it could freeze on contact with surfaces like sidewalks or back roads....basically anything untreated. Any borderline ice becomes alleviated Tuesday as everyone warms above freezing Tuesday out ahead of the cold front, and we have another day near 40 degrees.
Then the strange weather begins. Cold air will bleed into the upper valley as another storm works its way up from Pennsylvania, throwing in mixed precipitation, possibly in the form of sleet, going over to freezing rain. There could be a significant period of ice, especially in elevated areas over 1000 feet since the cold air has more time to settle into that area first. If it makes it into the valley floor, it will be tough to scour out. And that is the big wildcard.
The latest computer models have trended warmer with the storm, giving us freezing rain through Tuesday morning and then a south to southeast wind, which would mean a [possible changeover to rain, and then a dry slot (precipitation ends). For what its worth, NWS is still thinking that this will be a colder system than modeled, but since we're getting closer to the storm, and they've all trended warmer, I'm beginning to wonder. Because of the possibility of freezing rain, a winter storm watch will probably be issued sometime in the next 12-24 hours, hopefully sooner than later. Driving on snow is one thing, but ice is another. To sum up.
1) Possible light freezing drizzle first thing Tuesday morning, changing to rain.
2) Waiting for cold air to bleed in...setting the stage
3) Possible moderate ice storm (.25-.5 inches of ice) especially 1000 feet or higher, gradually changing over to rain from valleys to hilltops, with a SSE wind taking over Wednesday.
Big update coming tonight.
Also, HPC has us under a moderate risk of at least .25 inches of ice Wednesday...that makes me more confident on all that stuff I just wrote. :)
Tonight is still intriguing, because despite the southwest wind, our temperatures will drop to near freezing, and if we get some spotty light precipitation, it could freeze on contact with surfaces like sidewalks or back roads....basically anything untreated. Any borderline ice becomes alleviated Tuesday as everyone warms above freezing Tuesday out ahead of the cold front, and we have another day near 40 degrees.
Then the strange weather begins. Cold air will bleed into the upper valley as another storm works its way up from Pennsylvania, throwing in mixed precipitation, possibly in the form of sleet, going over to freezing rain. There could be a significant period of ice, especially in elevated areas over 1000 feet since the cold air has more time to settle into that area first. If it makes it into the valley floor, it will be tough to scour out. And that is the big wildcard.
The latest computer models have trended warmer with the storm, giving us freezing rain through Tuesday morning and then a south to southeast wind, which would mean a [possible changeover to rain, and then a dry slot (precipitation ends). For what its worth, NWS is still thinking that this will be a colder system than modeled, but since we're getting closer to the storm, and they've all trended warmer, I'm beginning to wonder. Because of the possibility of freezing rain, a winter storm watch will probably be issued sometime in the next 12-24 hours, hopefully sooner than later. Driving on snow is one thing, but ice is another. To sum up.
1) Possible light freezing drizzle first thing Tuesday morning, changing to rain.
2) Waiting for cold air to bleed in...setting the stage
3) Possible moderate ice storm (.25-.5 inches of ice) especially 1000 feet or higher, gradually changing over to rain from valleys to hilltops, with a SSE wind taking over Wednesday.
Big update coming tonight.
Also, HPC has us under a moderate risk of at least .25 inches of ice Wednesday...that makes me more confident on all that stuff I just wrote. :)
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Decouple
Lebanon was down to 7 degrees as of 11pm. Gotta love that fresh snow cover, along with a clear, calm night. The inversion has already set up, with single numbers down at the CT valley and mid teens around 800-1000 feet. The forecast was for a low of 12, but common sense and experience with a clear, calm night would point to a colder than expected forecast. I wouldn't be surprised if the airport dips below zero.
Very complex forecast on the way. And don't be shocked if there is a little glaze late Monday night or first thing Tuesday morning. Not much is being said about it, so those are the ones that always bite us in the ass.
But there is a bit of a squeeze play. We're out ahead of a warm front, and temperatures will warm up a lot tomorrow, with a southerly flow. Since Lebanon is in a north-south valley, the warm air can really work in on a south wind, and that will probably happen. Sunshine will be hard to come by, especially in the afternoon, but since its March, low 40s are not out of the question. The high temps are important for tomorrow night, because if we get warm enough, it will help to cut back the risk of freezing drizzle when precipitation moves in. Since winds should be south or southwest, I don't expect much of a problem for freezing rain, but because ground temperatures are very cold (we had -24 night last week, and near 0 tonight), there is a possibility that untreated surfaces could be slick Monday night and first thing Tuesday morning. A couple weeks ago (can't remember the day, we had freezing rain at a temperature of 36 degrees because the ground was subfreezing, so it can happen. Anything untreated was a skating rink, until temperatures rose to the low 40s, when the icing was alleviated. Ice mainly formed on sidewalks, roads, and the lower part of tree trunks...point being, anything closest to the surface, where the temperature was coldest.
Out ahead of the cold front Tuesday, we should rise into the upper 30s to near 40, along with some rain, but then the front will move through and temps will drop. And that sets the stage for the next storm...Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Lots of details to iron out, looking at a couple of different computer models face value...the warm one has us getting a lot of sleet, then some freezing rain and then rain. The colder storm has us getting a pretty serious sleet and freezing rain (glaze) storm. Ice storms are very difficult to figure out around here, but both models give elevated areas above 1000 feet a serious ice storm, with a possible borderline nasty ice storm in the CT valley. The wildcard appears to be a SE wind that will take over, and almost certainly warm up our temperatures toward Wednesday morning. It also means shadowing, so less precipitation locally...another thing to look at.
Again, we're in a north-south valley, so warm air will have no problem getting in here on a south or southeast wind. It all depends on how well the cold air settles down into the valley during the day Tuesday. Lots to figure out. But the potential is there. Some things that appear to be likely...somewhere in the northeast....
1) Heavy precipitation
2) Potential serious ice storm where it stays freezing rain, probably elevated areas above 1000 ft
3) Another decent hit of snow for the Green and White Mtns, and Longfellow Mtns of ME The rich keep getting richer. Backcountry weather conditions show up to 85 inches of snow at the stake in the White Mtns.
NWS thinks the storm will be colder, because of the cold air locked to the north. I don't necessarily agree for a few reasons...
1)Its March. Tougher and tougher to get cold storms, unless they're classic nor'easters.
2) Seasonal trend. Almost every storm was been warmer, and further north than forecast. Plus, most storms have developed late, and Lebanon has missed out on the heavy precipitation.
3) Climatology. Southeast wind in Lebanon is a kiss of death. We get shadowed and a north south valley warm air pumps in.
Hopefully I'll have a better idea tomorrow.
Edit, down to 3 in Lebanon. We'll be below zero tonight, thats almost a given.
Very complex forecast on the way. And don't be shocked if there is a little glaze late Monday night or first thing Tuesday morning. Not much is being said about it, so those are the ones that always bite us in the ass.
But there is a bit of a squeeze play. We're out ahead of a warm front, and temperatures will warm up a lot tomorrow, with a southerly flow. Since Lebanon is in a north-south valley, the warm air can really work in on a south wind, and that will probably happen. Sunshine will be hard to come by, especially in the afternoon, but since its March, low 40s are not out of the question. The high temps are important for tomorrow night, because if we get warm enough, it will help to cut back the risk of freezing drizzle when precipitation moves in. Since winds should be south or southwest, I don't expect much of a problem for freezing rain, but because ground temperatures are very cold (we had -24 night last week, and near 0 tonight), there is a possibility that untreated surfaces could be slick Monday night and first thing Tuesday morning. A couple weeks ago (can't remember the day, we had freezing rain at a temperature of 36 degrees because the ground was subfreezing, so it can happen. Anything untreated was a skating rink, until temperatures rose to the low 40s, when the icing was alleviated. Ice mainly formed on sidewalks, roads, and the lower part of tree trunks...point being, anything closest to the surface, where the temperature was coldest.
Out ahead of the cold front Tuesday, we should rise into the upper 30s to near 40, along with some rain, but then the front will move through and temps will drop. And that sets the stage for the next storm...Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Lots of details to iron out, looking at a couple of different computer models face value...the warm one has us getting a lot of sleet, then some freezing rain and then rain. The colder storm has us getting a pretty serious sleet and freezing rain (glaze) storm. Ice storms are very difficult to figure out around here, but both models give elevated areas above 1000 feet a serious ice storm, with a possible borderline nasty ice storm in the CT valley. The wildcard appears to be a SE wind that will take over, and almost certainly warm up our temperatures toward Wednesday morning. It also means shadowing, so less precipitation locally...another thing to look at.
Again, we're in a north-south valley, so warm air will have no problem getting in here on a south or southeast wind. It all depends on how well the cold air settles down into the valley during the day Tuesday. Lots to figure out. But the potential is there. Some things that appear to be likely...somewhere in the northeast....
1) Heavy precipitation
2) Potential serious ice storm where it stays freezing rain, probably elevated areas above 1000 ft
3) Another decent hit of snow for the Green and White Mtns, and Longfellow Mtns of ME The rich keep getting richer. Backcountry weather conditions show up to 85 inches of snow at the stake in the White Mtns.
NWS thinks the storm will be colder, because of the cold air locked to the north. I don't necessarily agree for a few reasons...
1)Its March. Tougher and tougher to get cold storms, unless they're classic nor'easters.
2) Seasonal trend. Almost every storm was been warmer, and further north than forecast. Plus, most storms have developed late, and Lebanon has missed out on the heavy precipitation.
3) Climatology. Southeast wind in Lebanon is a kiss of death. We get shadowed and a north south valley warm air pumps in.
Hopefully I'll have a better idea tomorrow.
Edit, down to 3 in Lebanon. We'll be below zero tonight, thats almost a given.
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