Rivers are near bank full, and we have 2-4 inches of rain coming. What does that spell? Possible minor to moderate flooding. If the White Mtns are to melt a lot of snow, then major flooding is possible, but temperatures are going to be very cold there, and the rain might actually change to freezing rain and snow partway through, so we could possibly escape major flooding if that happens. No snow is forecast here, but it definitely will be a cold and raw beginning to the week. It should be an interesting couple days, and if we get more than the 2-4 expected, there will be problems.
Hope you live on a hill! Have a good one.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
May 9th, 1977
Its thundering out, so I'm posting this.
Yes, it can happen.
Oh, and May 18, 2002....
"On May 18, 2002 a record breaking 2.2 inches of snow fell in Albany, NY. This was the first time that snow has fallen at the station on that date. The record May snowfall is 5.0 inches which fell on one day, May 10, 1945. The 2.2 inches on the 18th is the latest date for measurable snowfall at the station and the monthly total of 2.2 inches makes May 2002, the second snowiest on record. The latest last spring date that a trace of snowfall has fallen was on May 28, 1902."
"At Worcester, MA 0.7 inches of snow fell on May 18, 2002. This broke the daily record of a trace of snow set in 1931. This also established a new record date for the latest measurable snowfall in May. The old record was 1.5 inches on May 11, 1945."
Oh yeah, I saw 2.5 inches that day.
Winter is not over.
Yes, it can happen.
Oh, and May 18, 2002....
"On May 18, 2002 a record breaking 2.2 inches of snow fell in Albany, NY. This was the first time that snow has fallen at the station on that date. The record May snowfall is 5.0 inches which fell on one day, May 10, 1945. The 2.2 inches on the 18th is the latest date for measurable snowfall at the station and the monthly total of 2.2 inches makes May 2002, the second snowiest on record. The latest last spring date that a trace of snowfall has fallen was on May 28, 1902."
"At Worcester, MA 0.7 inches of snow fell on May 18, 2002. This broke the daily record of a trace of snow set in 1931. This also established a new record date for the latest measurable snowfall in May. The old record was 1.5 inches on May 11, 1945."
Oh yeah, I saw 2.5 inches that day.
Winter is not over.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Happy Spring!
Currently the temperature is 66 degrees. Put the thermometer in the sun and its 70 easy. It is definitely a shorts day. Temps will peak in the low 70s this afternoon, prob around 72 or 73, and tomorrow will be even better. The official forecast has risen the high to 75, just as I thought they would, so our chances of 80 degrees are definitely possible. There will be a squeeze play going on, with a backdoor cold front approaching from the northeast. Chances are, it will remain to our north during the entire day Friday so upper 70s to near 80 are quite possible.
Then the forecast becomes tricky for the weekend. The cold front will probably stall, just to our south and west, which will lock in cooler air, and possibly a deck of clouds, especially at the coast. There is an outside chance of a sprinkle of shower as well. Since we are far inland, the clouds should break and we should salvage at least some sunshine, but it doesn't look as beautiful as today and tomorrow. Temps will head for 70, but fall just short Saturday, and then the cooler air takes over Sunday. Not cold though...with highs 55-58. Sunday will definitely be the worst of the two days, and the clouds should win out, along with a chance of a shower.
Early outlook for next week. Not as awesome as this week, with a couple of chances of showers. Still we should manage slightly above normal temperatures.
Enjoy the spring warmth!
Then the forecast becomes tricky for the weekend. The cold front will probably stall, just to our south and west, which will lock in cooler air, and possibly a deck of clouds, especially at the coast. There is an outside chance of a sprinkle of shower as well. Since we are far inland, the clouds should break and we should salvage at least some sunshine, but it doesn't look as beautiful as today and tomorrow. Temps will head for 70, but fall just short Saturday, and then the cooler air takes over Sunday. Not cold though...with highs 55-58. Sunday will definitely be the worst of the two days, and the clouds should win out, along with a chance of a shower.
Early outlook for next week. Not as awesome as this week, with a couple of chances of showers. Still we should manage slightly above normal temperatures.
Enjoy the spring warmth!
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
80 Degrees Friday?
I wouldn't be surprised.... But I'll get to that in a minute.
We have another triple C night (clear calm and cold). The temp is down to 28 in Lebanon, and should get down to about 20 before dawn. After that, we have a big recovery coming tomorrow with temperatures in the mid 60s. It is going to be an absolutely wonderful early spring day.
Then the fun starts Thursday. I'm contemplating wearing shorts, as temperatures should make a run at 70.
Friday looks to be the warmest day. The computer models are supporting temps at least in the low 70s, but with a southwest wind, it could be 75. Most of the snow has melted and there is little vegetation growing, which can produce evapotranspiration (in other words, it would be a cooling effect). So keep your fingers crossed, there is an outside chance of 75-80 degree temperatures Friday afternoon. I'm very optimistic it will be warm that day. We'll see how it goes.
We have another triple C night (clear calm and cold). The temp is down to 28 in Lebanon, and should get down to about 20 before dawn. After that, we have a big recovery coming tomorrow with temperatures in the mid 60s. It is going to be an absolutely wonderful early spring day.
Then the fun starts Thursday. I'm contemplating wearing shorts, as temperatures should make a run at 70.
Friday looks to be the warmest day. The computer models are supporting temps at least in the low 70s, but with a southwest wind, it could be 75. Most of the snow has melted and there is little vegetation growing, which can produce evapotranspiration (in other words, it would be a cooling effect). So keep your fingers crossed, there is an outside chance of 75-80 degree temperatures Friday afternoon. I'm very optimistic it will be warm that day. We'll see how it goes.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Warm Day Saturday, and Flooding
I was away for the weekend, but I see that Lebanon hit 71 degrees Saturday! That is the warmest day of the year, and it came as a complete surprise to many. The forecast through Friday night was for a cool and raw day Saturday, but warm air won! Today was a slap back to reality, with mostly cloudy skies, windy conditions, and afternoon snow showers and squalls. I was in Plymouth NH and there was a brief snow squall that hit around 6pm. No accumulation, the temp was around 40. Still, that could very well be the last snow of the season. Goodbye winter. :(
The outlook for the week....cool to start off, then warming up into the 60s by Wed and Thursday. Not much precip expected this week, which is good. Snow melt is well underway and the CT river at West Lebanon flooded late Saturday. Its back down now, but it will be high for at least the next month. Any major rainstorms could mean flooding.
Meanwhile, the mtns picked up a few inches of snow today. So they added to their snow pack, which is still up to 70 inches deep in places. The pack is like a glacier, and its melting very slowly.
Not much else to talk about. Enjoy the week, after tomorrow. (40s tomrorow)
The outlook for the week....cool to start off, then warming up into the 60s by Wed and Thursday. Not much precip expected this week, which is good. Snow melt is well underway and the CT river at West Lebanon flooded late Saturday. Its back down now, but it will be high for at least the next month. Any major rainstorms could mean flooding.
Meanwhile, the mtns picked up a few inches of snow today. So they added to their snow pack, which is still up to 70 inches deep in places. The pack is like a glacier, and its melting very slowly.
Not much else to talk about. Enjoy the week, after tomorrow. (40s tomrorow)
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Fun Pictures
Not a lot to talk about tonight...so I thought I'd post some interesting pictures.
I didn't take these.
What do these pics have in common? They are all pics of hail! Some places had it 10-12 inches deep! I'm glad I didn't take those...
I didn't take these.
What do these pics have in common? They are all pics of hail! Some places had it 10-12 inches deep! I'm glad I didn't take those...
Monday, April 7, 2008
Cobalt Blue
It is a spectacular early spring day across the Upper Valley. Sunny, deep blue skies, with temperatures in the low 50s. Looking at visible satellite, I think we're set for a clear afternoon. The only thing that is taking away from a perfect day is the occasionally gusty wind.
As expected, there are some low clouds working into the coast, thanks to the northeast wind. Temps have dropped to the low 40s there, and will prob get into the upper 30s later, especially if any drizzle develops.
But not here! It won't get much warmer, but 53-55 is a pretty good bet this afternoon. Upper 50s to near 60 is possible Tuesday thru Thursday, and then we go the other way later this week with a cold rainstorm, possibly a big elevation snow storm in the mountains. But around here, it should stay rain. I guess we're getting to that time of year where it should rain, right?
As expected, there are some low clouds working into the coast, thanks to the northeast wind. Temps have dropped to the low 40s there, and will prob get into the upper 30s later, especially if any drizzle develops.
But not here! It won't get much warmer, but 53-55 is a pretty good bet this afternoon. Upper 50s to near 60 is possible Tuesday thru Thursday, and then we go the other way later this week with a cold rainstorm, possibly a big elevation snow storm in the mountains. But around here, it should stay rain. I guess we're getting to that time of year where it should rain, right?
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Cold Today, Nice Tomorrow, Miserable Friday
The title sums it up. Its windy and very chilly today. The cold front was a strong one and we're still feeling it today. Winds are gusting to 30 mph with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Tonight the winds won't die down too much, and temperatures will drop into the upper teens, so chills will be in the single digits. April!?
But Thursday is going to be a wonderful day. The wind will die off and the temperatures will recover beautifully. The average high is 50, and we'll make it to 50-55 during the afternoon, before high clouds move in late. Enjoy the day.
Friday looks miserable. Another storm is on the way. Last night I was hinting at possible accumulating snow around here, but it appears that any snow or mixed precip will quickly change to rain, with a southeast wind. Before the storm ends, the snow levels will prob drop to around 1000 feet, so it could end as snow in the local hills, but I think the majority of it will be rain. Temps will be in the low 30s early, then rise to near or slightly above 40, with a cold wind. Accumulating snow will be confined to the mountains.
Weekend looks good. Cool and blustery Saturday, in the 40s, then back into the 50s on Sunday. How about that? Another 50 degree day!
But Thursday is going to be a wonderful day. The wind will die off and the temperatures will recover beautifully. The average high is 50, and we'll make it to 50-55 during the afternoon, before high clouds move in late. Enjoy the day.
Friday looks miserable. Another storm is on the way. Last night I was hinting at possible accumulating snow around here, but it appears that any snow or mixed precip will quickly change to rain, with a southeast wind. Before the storm ends, the snow levels will prob drop to around 1000 feet, so it could end as snow in the local hills, but I think the majority of it will be rain. Temps will be in the low 30s early, then rise to near or slightly above 40, with a cold wind. Accumulating snow will be confined to the mountains.
Weekend looks good. Cool and blustery Saturday, in the 40s, then back into the 50s on Sunday. How about that? Another 50 degree day!
Summing it Up
It hit 64 in Lebanon, there was a nasty line of thunderstorms that hit just south of us, and some actual severe storms in MA, CT and NY. There was even a tornado warning in NJ! Not bad for April 1st. But its back to reality....Mount Washington is gusting to 100 mph, rain is changing to snow in the mtns, and the HPC has us under a risk of 4 inches of snow Friday. See map below.
Winter pattern till further notice....
Winter pattern till further notice....
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
If You Live in Plymouth, I'm Sorry
Cold Air Damming....or should I say....damning? More like a cruel April Fools joke. Temp in Plymouth is 41 degrees with a light NE wind. Everyone in the Pemi river valley is getting screwed out of warm weather right now. Fifteen miles southwest in ANdover, its 56. North in Whitefield its 60 and Berlin is 57. So the warm air is having all kinds of trouble penetrating through the White Mtns. That 50-80 inch snow pack is tough to get through. I still think they will warm up right ahead of the front, but it will be short lived, and will occur in the hills first, and the valley last. And 60 is almost out of the question, just be happy with 50-55 there, for like an hour.
Lebanon briefly hit 64 before 1pm, and now we've dropped to 59, but it will go back and forth before the cold front moves through. A line of showers is developing and moving into western New England. It will be in Lebanon after 2 or 3pm. Could be a downpour or a rumble of thunder, along with gusty winds.
Lebanon briefly hit 64 before 1pm, and now we've dropped to 59, but it will go back and forth before the cold front moves through. A line of showers is developing and moving into western New England. It will be in Lebanon after 2 or 3pm. Could be a downpour or a rumble of thunder, along with gusty winds.
In the 50s, ALMOST Everywhere
WHere the warm air has flooded in, it is extremely warm. Where it hasn't, the cold air is stubborn as hell! Its 54 in Lebanon right now, with temps near 60 in southern NH, all of this with no help of sunshine. That makes me think we'll hit 60 today.
But the Pemi River Valley is stuck in the mid 30s at this hour. This happens a lot, and its called cold air damming, when a shallow layer of dense cold air basically gets stuck at the surface while warm air rides above it. Its 52 degrees at 3300 feet on Mt Washington. Eventually, the inversion should break since the winds are somewhat gusty, and that should mix the atmosphere up, and break the inversion, but the deep glacier like snow pack in central NH is really screwin those folks over this morning. Hope for the best. A couple current temperatures...
Woodstock 35
Mount Washington Summit 37
Plymouth State 37
Laconia 37
Ashland 37
Sanbornton 46
Rochester 53
Mt Washington 3300 ft 52
Keene 54
Lebanon 54
Manchester 57
Nashua 60
Portsmouth 60
Derry 60
The warm air is almost into the Pemi Valley, but its going to take a bit longer. Prob till early afternoon.
A line of showers and thundershowers will roll through later, with gusty winds. I'll have an update on the high temperatures later.
But the Pemi River Valley is stuck in the mid 30s at this hour. This happens a lot, and its called cold air damming, when a shallow layer of dense cold air basically gets stuck at the surface while warm air rides above it. Its 52 degrees at 3300 feet on Mt Washington. Eventually, the inversion should break since the winds are somewhat gusty, and that should mix the atmosphere up, and break the inversion, but the deep glacier like snow pack in central NH is really screwin those folks over this morning. Hope for the best. A couple current temperatures...
Woodstock 35
Mount Washington Summit 37
Plymouth State 37
Laconia 37
Ashland 37
Sanbornton 46
Rochester 53
Mt Washington 3300 ft 52
Keene 54
Lebanon 54
Manchester 57
Nashua 60
Portsmouth 60
Derry 60
The warm air is almost into the Pemi Valley, but its going to take a bit longer. Prob till early afternoon.
A line of showers and thundershowers will roll through later, with gusty winds. I'll have an update on the high temperatures later.
Starting to Warm Up-Lots To Talk About
After a low of 3 Saturday night, we're going in the opposite direction tonight. In fact, temperatures are steady right now, in the mid 30s, and will be rising towards dawn, from hilltops to valleys. The warm air will work its way into the higher elevations first and then slowly make its way into the valleys. You can see it already on the Mt Washington autoroad temperature profile, where its 31 degrees at 1600 feet, but 43 degrees at 4000 feet, where the warm air is working in. Nice inversion.
Currently, the warmest temperatures are at the MA/NH border, anywhere west and south of the Green Mtns, and in the higher elevations, where its between 40-50 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are stuck in the 30s.
Current Temps
Plymouth 33 (550 ft)
Springfield VT (500 ft) 34
Lebanon 36 (600 ft)
Rutland, VT 43 (west of the greens)
Springfield NH 43 (1400 ft)
Westmoreland NH 45 (1145 ft)
Jaffrey 46 (1040 ft)
Orange, MA 48 (south of warm front)
Bennington VT 48 (west of the greens, and south of warm front)
Fitchburg, MA 53 (south of warm front)
Temps should eventually rise to near 40 by dawn in the lower elevations of the river valleys.
Tomorrow, winds will mix everything up and the mild air will be at all elevations. Add an hour or two of sunshine and we could be talking 60 degrees by later in the afternoon. The best chance for 60+ will be across southern NH and MA because they will start out the day in the 50s, but its possible here as well because we live in a north south valley, and there will be a screaming southwest wind, 20-30 mph with higher gusts in the afternoon.
Chances are we will remain in the 50s tomorrow, but there is an outside shot at cracking 60. No matter, a strong cold front will move in by evening with a band of showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, strong gusty winds, and a drop in temperatures. Rain will change to snow in the mtns with a couple inches possible there.
There is a flood watch for the entire state of Vermont, for ice jam flooding and snow melt flooding, thanks to the warm weather and rain coming. If you live near a small, flashy stream, pay close attention to it. It will be running high starting tomorrow, and probably get higher thorough the week. Snow is melting rapidly tonight because of dense fog and steadily rising temperatures. "Snow eating" fog! I think that my weeks end, there will be no snow left in the upper valley, except in the woods, and in piles. As long as we don't get another snowstorm that is....more on that later.
Locally, it will be blustery and cooler tomorrow night and Wednesday, but not as cold as this weekend. Prob 40-45. Then back to near 50 or slightly higher Thursday.
We need to watch Friday for a potential snow or rain storm. Latest models show more snow than rain. Few days to watch it.....
Hoping for 60 tomorrow. We haven't hit it all year!
Currently, the warmest temperatures are at the MA/NH border, anywhere west and south of the Green Mtns, and in the higher elevations, where its between 40-50 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are stuck in the 30s.
Current Temps
Plymouth 33 (550 ft)
Springfield VT (500 ft) 34
Lebanon 36 (600 ft)
Rutland, VT 43 (west of the greens)
Springfield NH 43 (1400 ft)
Westmoreland NH 45 (1145 ft)
Jaffrey 46 (1040 ft)
Orange, MA 48 (south of warm front)
Bennington VT 48 (west of the greens, and south of warm front)
Fitchburg, MA 53 (south of warm front)
Temps should eventually rise to near 40 by dawn in the lower elevations of the river valleys.
Tomorrow, winds will mix everything up and the mild air will be at all elevations. Add an hour or two of sunshine and we could be talking 60 degrees by later in the afternoon. The best chance for 60+ will be across southern NH and MA because they will start out the day in the 50s, but its possible here as well because we live in a north south valley, and there will be a screaming southwest wind, 20-30 mph with higher gusts in the afternoon.
Chances are we will remain in the 50s tomorrow, but there is an outside shot at cracking 60. No matter, a strong cold front will move in by evening with a band of showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, strong gusty winds, and a drop in temperatures. Rain will change to snow in the mtns with a couple inches possible there.
There is a flood watch for the entire state of Vermont, for ice jam flooding and snow melt flooding, thanks to the warm weather and rain coming. If you live near a small, flashy stream, pay close attention to it. It will be running high starting tomorrow, and probably get higher thorough the week. Snow is melting rapidly tonight because of dense fog and steadily rising temperatures. "Snow eating" fog! I think that my weeks end, there will be no snow left in the upper valley, except in the woods, and in piles. As long as we don't get another snowstorm that is....more on that later.
Locally, it will be blustery and cooler tomorrow night and Wednesday, but not as cold as this weekend. Prob 40-45. Then back to near 50 or slightly higher Thursday.
We need to watch Friday for a potential snow or rain storm. Latest models show more snow than rain. Few days to watch it.....
Hoping for 60 tomorrow. We haven't hit it all year!
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