Perhaps....
The triple C....clear calm and cold tonight! Add a fresh snow cover and a winter pattern and you have a recipe for a damn cold night. Its already down to 14 in Lebanon, with the new update coming up in about 10 minutes. Hanover is about 16 degrees. By the time the temperature bottoms out slightly after dawn, it will probably be in the single digits at the airport, around 5. Let's see how close I get.
After tonight, we go in the other direction. There will be a big recovery tomorrow, but temperatures will still be below normal (around 40). The average high is 50 degrees. But considering the high was 28 today, I think we'll take 40 and like it.
Monday is a transition day. A warm front will push through and south winds will take over. There could be a touch of wet snow to start, but it should change to rain. Highs Monday should make the low 40s.
Which sets us up for Tuesday...
Out ahead of the cold front, mild southwest winds will bring much milder air into the region. With no sun, we'll hit the 50s, but with some breaks, we'll be 60 easy, and with a partly sunny afternoon, we'll be 65 or possibly a bit higher. So hope for sunshine. Or travel to eastern Massachusetts, where it will be at least 60-65, with low 70s possible with sunshine!
Then the cold front goes through with a line of showers and dare I say it, an isolated thunderstorm during the evening. After that, its back to reality Wed- Friday. But when I say reality, I mean normal to slightly below normal weather for this time of year...40s to near 50. Our snow pack should dwindle in a big way this week.
I don't think winter is over, but its definitely loosening its grip for now. We'll see if the snow yesterday was the final hit of the season, or maybe old man winter has another trick.
Temp down to 13 in Lebanon. Burr for March 30!
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
Spring Snowstorm Winding Down
About five inches fell at the apartment. Not too shabby. Periodic light snow off and on this afternoon, with little accumulation.
Amounts pretty much ranged 4-8 inches. Score. I'm pretty sure isolated areas approached 10 inches, but there are no official measurements. Those were probably limited to elevations above 1500 feet.
Cold weekend ahead, especially Saturday...
Out ahead of a cold front, we could potentially hit 60+ next Tuesday. Ya heard it here first. ;-)
Amounts pretty much ranged 4-8 inches. Score. I'm pretty sure isolated areas approached 10 inches, but there are no official measurements. Those were probably limited to elevations above 1500 feet.
Cold weekend ahead, especially Saturday...
Out ahead of a cold front, we could potentially hit 60+ next Tuesday. Ya heard it here first. ;-)
Spring Snowstorm Underway
Snow is flying as I type this, from valley floor, to hilltop. I just got back inside, the temp down at the river is 35 degrees, and its about 33 up in Hanover, except 34 right along the road (mini urban heat island). Elevated areas are below freezing and I expect them to get hit very hard from this storm. There is already a dusting outside the apt. Looking at radar, we have a plume of moisture that will move through and get heavier during the night.
A northerly wind has taken over, so cold air is here to stay, with no major shadowing expected. With all that said, accumulations in the valley should be 4-8 inches, with 8+ inches above 1000 feet, possibly up to a foot. Snow will get out of here by afternoon. The heaviest will be first thing in the morning, and it should taper by afternoon. Since its so late in the year, the main roads will probably end up wet, especially as the snow lets up and the day wears on, but side streets will be nasty, and any road in the hills will probably be very bad for awhile.
Whoops, temp has dropped to 32 as I type this. Enjoy the snow. I know I will. :)
A northerly wind has taken over, so cold air is here to stay, with no major shadowing expected. With all that said, accumulations in the valley should be 4-8 inches, with 8+ inches above 1000 feet, possibly up to a foot. Snow will get out of here by afternoon. The heaviest will be first thing in the morning, and it should taper by afternoon. Since its so late in the year, the main roads will probably end up wet, especially as the snow lets up and the day wears on, but side streets will be nasty, and any road in the hills will probably be very bad for awhile.
Whoops, temp has dropped to 32 as I type this. Enjoy the snow. I know I will. :)
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Snow on The Way, Possibly Heavy?
I guess I'll start with the good news first. We have one more mild day ahead. Temperatures should hold in the mid to upper 40s. Now, onto the new news, snow is on the way, and it could be heavy, even in the upper valley.
The computer models, which had been trending the storm south, and away from the region, should come in and be a direct hit. A winter storm has been issued for 6+ inches of snow as far north as Sullivan County, and in my opinion, it should be extended further north.
Snow will come down heavy at times tonight and early tomorrow morning, and will probably end up snowing all day tomorrow, with a solid 3-5 inches in the valleys with 6 or more coming for the hills. I'll get into more detail in an update tonight.
Winter is not over yet.
The computer models, which had been trending the storm south, and away from the region, should come in and be a direct hit. A winter storm has been issued for 6+ inches of snow as far north as Sullivan County, and in my opinion, it should be extended further north.
Snow will come down heavy at times tonight and early tomorrow morning, and will probably end up snowing all day tomorrow, with a solid 3-5 inches in the valleys with 6 or more coming for the hills. I'll get into more detail in an update tonight.
Winter is not over yet.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Near 50 today
After a couple wet snow flakes this morning, its time to warm up. Its a fairly breezy afternoon, so it might not feel especially warm, but still, 50 is better than the 30s we've had for the last 5 days.
I'm about done with winter. Last night the HPC has us under a moderate risk of 8 inches of snow for Friday and Saturday morning. Now that risk has actually moved south to southern NH and northern MA...making it a close miss for us. Just light snow and cold. In other words, another nickel and dime thing. When its spring, I either want a big snow, or warm weather, so enough with this snow pretending to hit us. We're in a winter pattern now, so give us a damn storm or let spring get its ass in here...
I'm about done with winter. Last night the HPC has us under a moderate risk of 8 inches of snow for Friday and Saturday morning. Now that risk has actually moved south to southern NH and northern MA...making it a close miss for us. Just light snow and cold. In other words, another nickel and dime thing. When its spring, I either want a big snow, or warm weather, so enough with this snow pretending to hit us. We're in a winter pattern now, so give us a damn storm or let spring get its ass in here...
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Rub It In Nantucket
At 8am, snow was falling across Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard and all of Cape Cod, while we were getting rain in Hanover and Lebanon. The atmosphere was so dry, there was some evaporational cooling all the way to the Cape and the islands, and it started as wet snow there. In fact, snow is still falling across southeast NH. That will prob last a couple more hours.
As for here, a slushy 1-2 inches of snow fell, followed by some rain mixed with sleet. Temp is 34 in Lebanon, 33 in Hanover, but its the middle of the day, and the sun angle is comparable to late September, so that is melting anything that hits the pavement.
It looks like rain will pickup this afternoon, and fall heavily at times tonight, then end tomorrow morning as some snow showers. The winds are going to be an issue, and a wind advisory with gusts to 40 or even 50 mph might have to be issued.
All th heavy snows are confined to the mountains. They're going to pick up 6-12+ through Friday.
The weather looks quiet, albeit cold for the weekend, with a potential storm threat early next week. Confidence extremely low.
As for here, a slushy 1-2 inches of snow fell, followed by some rain mixed with sleet. Temp is 34 in Lebanon, 33 in Hanover, but its the middle of the day, and the sun angle is comparable to late September, so that is melting anything that hits the pavement.
It looks like rain will pickup this afternoon, and fall heavily at times tonight, then end tomorrow morning as some snow showers. The winds are going to be an issue, and a wind advisory with gusts to 40 or even 50 mph might have to be issued.
All th heavy snows are confined to the mountains. They're going to pick up 6-12+ through Friday.
The weather looks quiet, albeit cold for the weekend, with a potential storm threat early next week. Confidence extremely low.
Steady Snow Falling
Snow update: I have a fever, and haven't paid close attention to this storm. Radar suggests steady snow, and looking out the window confirms this. Temperatures were originally above 32, but have dropped due to evaporational cooling, so its now 32 in Hanover and Lebanon. There is a heavy coating on the sidewalks and on the existing snowcover, so as long as the snow keeps falling at this intensity, we could pick up a couple inches tonight.
Its tough to predict what is going to happen later, but it looks like the snow might let up for a short time, or become intermittent. There is a break in the precipitation that goes from the VT NY border to about Binghamton and Elmira NY, but that precipitation shows signs of filling in. So the snow might let up for an hour or two, and then should pick up again towards dawn.
Lebanon has a southerly wind, and that should play a part in changing this wet snow over to rain fairly quickly tomorrow morning. There might be a period of sleet but I don't expect freezing rain since ground temperatures have warmed drastically in the past couple weeks.
A big wildcard is the elevated regions, above 1000 feet. Since its snowing steadily and accumulating here at the CT river, it will be worse in higher elevations. Also, sleet and freezing rain might be an issue up there tomorrow, but I don't expect a nasty ice accumulation since its very ;ate in the year for ice. Even above 1000 feet, I expect temperatures to get above freezing so any frozen precip will go over to rain.
In the mountains, expect a net gain of snow with several inches on the front end, then a potential ice storm, and then lots of upslope snow showers at the end. The potential exists for 6-12 inches when all is said and done up there. I'm going to do my best to spit out a forecast.
For the Upper Valley
Tonight: Snow of varying intensities, possibly mixing with sleet towards dawn. Lows near 29, rising towards 32 by dawn. Light wind mainly out of the south, 5-10 mph. Accumulations 1-3 inches, with up to 4 in the upper elevations.
Wednesday: Snow changing to sleet and possibly freezing rain, (esp in sheltered valleys) then rain from the CT valley floor to hilltops. Highs 34-40, warmest in the valley. South to southeast wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night: Rain or mixed precipitation ending as snow showers. Lows dropping into the 20s. Flash freeze possible after midnight. Winds switch to the northeast, then west by dawn, 10-20 mph with higher gusts, esp in the hills.
Thursday: Maybe an early morning snow shower, then partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly. Highs near 40. West winds in the 20-30 mph range.
The outlook for Friday and beyond is colder than normal (happy spring!)with temps in the mid 30s and lows in the teens. Big storms appear to be suppressed through at least Sunday or Monday. We need to watch the next couple weeks, because, we're in a winter pattern for the first time all year. (Believe it or not!
Ok, time to pass out. If I'm feeling good tomorrow, I'll try to have an in depth update.
Looking out the window, the snow has let up right now... its 1:23am...bedtime.
Its tough to predict what is going to happen later, but it looks like the snow might let up for a short time, or become intermittent. There is a break in the precipitation that goes from the VT NY border to about Binghamton and Elmira NY, but that precipitation shows signs of filling in. So the snow might let up for an hour or two, and then should pick up again towards dawn.
Lebanon has a southerly wind, and that should play a part in changing this wet snow over to rain fairly quickly tomorrow morning. There might be a period of sleet but I don't expect freezing rain since ground temperatures have warmed drastically in the past couple weeks.
A big wildcard is the elevated regions, above 1000 feet. Since its snowing steadily and accumulating here at the CT river, it will be worse in higher elevations. Also, sleet and freezing rain might be an issue up there tomorrow, but I don't expect a nasty ice accumulation since its very ;ate in the year for ice. Even above 1000 feet, I expect temperatures to get above freezing so any frozen precip will go over to rain.
In the mountains, expect a net gain of snow with several inches on the front end, then a potential ice storm, and then lots of upslope snow showers at the end. The potential exists for 6-12 inches when all is said and done up there. I'm going to do my best to spit out a forecast.
For the Upper Valley
Tonight: Snow of varying intensities, possibly mixing with sleet towards dawn. Lows near 29, rising towards 32 by dawn. Light wind mainly out of the south, 5-10 mph. Accumulations 1-3 inches, with up to 4 in the upper elevations.
Wednesday: Snow changing to sleet and possibly freezing rain, (esp in sheltered valleys) then rain from the CT valley floor to hilltops. Highs 34-40, warmest in the valley. South to southeast wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night: Rain or mixed precipitation ending as snow showers. Lows dropping into the 20s. Flash freeze possible after midnight. Winds switch to the northeast, then west by dawn, 10-20 mph with higher gusts, esp in the hills.
Thursday: Maybe an early morning snow shower, then partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly. Highs near 40. West winds in the 20-30 mph range.
The outlook for Friday and beyond is colder than normal (happy spring!)with temps in the mid 30s and lows in the teens. Big storms appear to be suppressed through at least Sunday or Monday. We need to watch the next couple weeks, because, we're in a winter pattern for the first time all year. (Believe it or not!
Ok, time to pass out. If I'm feeling good tomorrow, I'll try to have an in depth update.
Looking out the window, the snow has let up right now... its 1:23am...bedtime.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
The One That Got Away...
Satellite shot of the one that got away.
It has an eye-like structure!!
Newfoundland forecast....
"Snow will combine with high winds to give near zero visibilities in blowing snow tonight and Tuesday. Total snowfall accumulations from 45 to 60 centimetres are expected through Tuesday night.
A large and intense winter storm currently southeast of Nova Scotia will track very slowly northeastward to lie just south of the Grand Banks tonight where it will become nearly stationary. Snow and blowing snow associated with this system is presently affecting southeastern Newfoundland and will continue to spread northwestward tonight. Over central..Southern and northeastern Newfoundland snow and blowing snow will persist through Tuesday night. Total snowfall accumulations will range from 20 to 60 centimetres (8-24 inches) with the highest amounts over eastern Newfoundland. Over the Avalon the snow is forecast to change to freezing rain Tuesday morning then persist into Tuesday night as temperatures remain steady near or just below zero. Additionally very strong north to northeasterly winds gusting up to 80 km/h (50 mph) inland and to 120 km/h (75 mph) over coastal areas will accompany this system giving blowing snow and widespread reduced visibilities. Higher than normal water levels can also be expected along parts of the east coast an d northeast coast tonight and Tuesday especially in any areas of open water where large waves can develop."
So in other words, we missed a "blizzicane." :)
Thats ok, snow is on the way tomorrow night and Wednesday, and it could actually be a good hit. I'll have a first guess on accumulations tomorrow.
It has an eye-like structure!!
Newfoundland forecast....
"Snow will combine with high winds to give near zero visibilities in blowing snow tonight and Tuesday. Total snowfall accumulations from 45 to 60 centimetres are expected through Tuesday night.
A large and intense winter storm currently southeast of Nova Scotia will track very slowly northeastward to lie just south of the Grand Banks tonight where it will become nearly stationary. Snow and blowing snow associated with this system is presently affecting southeastern Newfoundland and will continue to spread northwestward tonight. Over central..Southern and northeastern Newfoundland snow and blowing snow will persist through Tuesday night. Total snowfall accumulations will range from 20 to 60 centimetres (8-24 inches) with the highest amounts over eastern Newfoundland. Over the Avalon the snow is forecast to change to freezing rain Tuesday morning then persist into Tuesday night as temperatures remain steady near or just below zero. Additionally very strong north to northeasterly winds gusting up to 80 km/h (50 mph) inland and to 120 km/h (75 mph) over coastal areas will accompany this system giving blowing snow and widespread reduced visibilities. Higher than normal water levels can also be expected along parts of the east coast an d northeast coast tonight and Tuesday especially in any areas of open water where large waves can develop."
So in other words, we missed a "blizzicane." :)
Thats ok, snow is on the way tomorrow night and Wednesday, and it could actually be a good hit. I'll have a first guess on accumulations tomorrow.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
A slight deviation from weather....
Its Sunday...and I don't feel like talking about weather. So silly pictures instead....
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
see more loldogs are funny dog pictures!
From A Badly Burned Weather Weenie...
While we're swimming in snow, places south of Boston didn't get much of anything this year. In fact, travel down to NYC and New Jersey....and there has been under 10 inches total. I frequent a weather forum and this person posted this. Maybe its because its late...or maybe this is really funny. But I'm still laughing at what he had to say. He wrote to mother nature. :)
"Well, there are finally indications that you are going to let the NAO get negative and maybe allow some of us to actually see snow before summer is upon us. I just want to be clear on one thing, B***H. Do not think for one second that you can toss a late season snowstorm at me and have me immediately forget what you've inflicted on us this winter and go right back to way things used to be. Just because you spread your legs and I am willing to jump into bed does NOT mean that I forgive you. It only means I am willing to use you, just as you have used me. If you treat me fairly (and, yes, all I ask is fairness... I do NOT require another 1995/96, et al), maybe... MAYBE... I will be able to open my heart again someday and find a way to forgive you. Until that day, I will still respond when you send a snow threat this way, but it will be more like the response of Pavlov's dogs to the bell rather than any real love or respect on my part. My love and respect will have to be earned all over again starting with one.... ONE.... freakin' snowstorm.... YOU #@*&-ING WH*RE!!!!"
People think I like snow. This is just too much....and it made my night. I think I'll stop complaining about the 90 inches we've had.
Oh, and to all the complainers who hate the snow...this picture is for you.
"Well, there are finally indications that you are going to let the NAO get negative and maybe allow some of us to actually see snow before summer is upon us. I just want to be clear on one thing, B***H. Do not think for one second that you can toss a late season snowstorm at me and have me immediately forget what you've inflicted on us this winter and go right back to way things used to be. Just because you spread your legs and I am willing to jump into bed does NOT mean that I forgive you. It only means I am willing to use you, just as you have used me. If you treat me fairly (and, yes, all I ask is fairness... I do NOT require another 1995/96, et al), maybe... MAYBE... I will be able to open my heart again someday and find a way to forgive you. Until that day, I will still respond when you send a snow threat this way, but it will be more like the response of Pavlov's dogs to the bell rather than any real love or respect on my part. My love and respect will have to be earned all over again starting with one.... ONE.... freakin' snowstorm.... YOU #@*&-ING WH*RE!!!!"
People think I like snow. This is just too much....and it made my night. I think I'll stop complaining about the 90 inches we've had.
Oh, and to all the complainers who hate the snow...this picture is for you.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Snow Amounts-Elevations Only
At the apt, we picked up a slushy inch that was gone in about hour after everything ended. Backcountry weather conditions 2-3 inches in the White Mtns.
MASSACHUSETTS
...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...
GOSHEN 3.0 900 AM SPOTTER
WORTHINGTON 2.1 700 AM NWS COOP
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
PEPPERELL 1.5 845 AM SPOTTER
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
MILTON 0.9 900 AM BLUE HILL
...WORCESTER COUNTY...
STERLING 2.0 842 AM SPOTTER
BOYLSTON 1.9 1044 AM SPOTTER
WORCESTER 1.7 734 PM AIRPORT (ORH)
NEW HAMPSHIRE
...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
RINDGE 3.0 858 AM SPOTTER
WALPOLE 2.0 705 AM NWS COOP
...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
WILTON 3.3 1030 AM SPOTTER
SOUTH WEARE 3.1 732 AM SPOTTER
FRANCESTOWN 2.0 700 AM NWS COOP
ALl in all, I did ok. I'm glad I didn't up my snow amounts, and bite on that doom and gloom computer model. I figured 1-2 inches in the lower elevations of the upper valley, and we got that, and 3-6 inches in the elevated areas of southern NH, and we barely picked that up.
I'll try to post tomorrow on the potential winter pattern we might be getting into as we head into spring...
MASSACHUSETTS
...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...
GOSHEN 3.0 900 AM SPOTTER
WORTHINGTON 2.1 700 AM NWS COOP
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
PEPPERELL 1.5 845 AM SPOTTER
...NORFOLK COUNTY...
MILTON 0.9 900 AM BLUE HILL
...WORCESTER COUNTY...
STERLING 2.0 842 AM SPOTTER
BOYLSTON 1.9 1044 AM SPOTTER
WORCESTER 1.7 734 PM AIRPORT (ORH)
NEW HAMPSHIRE
...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
RINDGE 3.0 858 AM SPOTTER
WALPOLE 2.0 705 AM NWS COOP
...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
WILTON 3.3 1030 AM SPOTTER
SOUTH WEARE 3.1 732 AM SPOTTER
FRANCESTOWN 2.0 700 AM NWS COOP
ALl in all, I did ok. I'm glad I didn't up my snow amounts, and bite on that doom and gloom computer model. I figured 1-2 inches in the lower elevations of the upper valley, and we got that, and 3-6 inches in the elevated areas of southern NH, and we barely picked that up.
I'll try to post tomorrow on the potential winter pattern we might be getting into as we head into spring...
Friday, March 14, 2008
Terrific
I should have waited for the latest models to roll out.
The latest GFS slams 800-1000 foot areas of central MA and southern NH with 10 inches of snow, with a changeover making it all the way to Boston. This would spell 2-4 inches of snow, even in the lower elevations of southern NH and MA. I'm still not changing my forecast because this is one model run, but I expect some sort of advisory to be issued tonight, especially for elevated areas.
Updates later.
The latest GFS slams 800-1000 foot areas of central MA and southern NH with 10 inches of snow, with a changeover making it all the way to Boston. This would spell 2-4 inches of snow, even in the lower elevations of southern NH and MA. I'm still not changing my forecast because this is one model run, but I expect some sort of advisory to be issued tonight, especially for elevated areas.
Updates later.
Low Confidence
Just what people want to hear...another low confidence forecast for the next rain and snow storm. Lots of factors.
1) Mild temperatures this afternoon: Highs will make it into at least the mid 40s in Lebanon, and 45-52 in southern NH and northern MA.
2) Timing of the storm: The heaviest will fall during the overnight hours, which could maximize the chance of snow, but with so much warm air around, it depends on where you live.
3) Elevation: This storm will be very elevation dependent, meaning, the higher you live, the more snow you're likely to pick up.
4) Intensity of precipitation: The heavier it is, the better chance that colder air gets dragged down from above and it changes the rain over to heavy, wet snow later tonight.
5) Cutoff: There appears to be a sharp cutoff in the precipitation, meaning, west of the CT River Valley, there won't be much of anything. Lebanon is in the valley, so it is going to be a very close call here. We could be on the 1-2 inch line, or the 2-5 inch line very easily, within 5-10 miles.
Putting it all together
Southern NH, Northern MA
Rain should move in during the mid evening across western New England and come down light to moderate at times. After midnight, cold air will filter in at the upper elevations and should change the rain over to wet snow, and if it comes down hard enough, there will be a complete changeover to the valley floor early. The best estimate for snow is 1-2 inches of glop on the grass in the valleys with up to four inches in slightly elevated areas (400-800 feet) and potentially 4-6 inches in the Monadnocks or above 800-1000 feet. If the precipitation is light, it will be mostly rain, with lighter snow at the end, and little accumulation. If its heavy, there will be beautiful snow sticking to the trees by the time the snow gets out of here Saturday morning.
Upper Valley
Elevation will play a role here as well, with rain to start, changing to snow. The valley will probably pick up 1-3 inches, with 2-5 inches in the hills. We're right on the line of the light, and steady precipitation, so it is a close call for the heavier snow. If it moves just a few miles west, we'll be talking 2-5 inches with 4-6 in the hills.
Updates tonight when everything is underway.
1) Mild temperatures this afternoon: Highs will make it into at least the mid 40s in Lebanon, and 45-52 in southern NH and northern MA.
2) Timing of the storm: The heaviest will fall during the overnight hours, which could maximize the chance of snow, but with so much warm air around, it depends on where you live.
3) Elevation: This storm will be very elevation dependent, meaning, the higher you live, the more snow you're likely to pick up.
4) Intensity of precipitation: The heavier it is, the better chance that colder air gets dragged down from above and it changes the rain over to heavy, wet snow later tonight.
5) Cutoff: There appears to be a sharp cutoff in the precipitation, meaning, west of the CT River Valley, there won't be much of anything. Lebanon is in the valley, so it is going to be a very close call here. We could be on the 1-2 inch line, or the 2-5 inch line very easily, within 5-10 miles.
Putting it all together
Southern NH, Northern MA
Rain should move in during the mid evening across western New England and come down light to moderate at times. After midnight, cold air will filter in at the upper elevations and should change the rain over to wet snow, and if it comes down hard enough, there will be a complete changeover to the valley floor early. The best estimate for snow is 1-2 inches of glop on the grass in the valleys with up to four inches in slightly elevated areas (400-800 feet) and potentially 4-6 inches in the Monadnocks or above 800-1000 feet. If the precipitation is light, it will be mostly rain, with lighter snow at the end, and little accumulation. If its heavy, there will be beautiful snow sticking to the trees by the time the snow gets out of here Saturday morning.
Upper Valley
Elevation will play a role here as well, with rain to start, changing to snow. The valley will probably pick up 1-3 inches, with 2-5 inches in the hills. We're right on the line of the light, and steady precipitation, so it is a close call for the heavier snow. If it moves just a few miles west, we'll be talking 2-5 inches with 4-6 in the hills.
Updates tonight when everything is underway.
Snow On The Way
No big storms are coming, like I hinted at in the last blog. The computer models are agreeing on a southern track for Sunday's storm, with the closest model bringing a windy snow or rainstorm to Cape Cod up to Plymouth MA. But we have to turn our attention to another storm, that is only 24 hours away. I'll lay the frames for it tonight, and try to go into detail tomorrow.
The potential is there for several inches of snow tomorrow night and Saturday morning, as a low pressure system quickly passes south of New England. Temperatures are going to be marginal in southern NH and northern MA, and with temperatures going up into the 50s tomorrow, chances are this will start as rain. Here in the upper valley, it will probably start as rain as well, but transition over to snow earlier.
As cold air works in to the storm, and if it comes down hard enough, the rain will change over to snow in southern NH. One model shows a pretty good dousing of liquid equivalent precipitation late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and a good amount of that could be snow.
We're getting closer to spring now, so elevation will play a large factor, meaning, the higher elevations will pick up more. Early estimates would be an advisory level snow is possible, meaning 3-6 inches in the hills of northern MA and southern NH, and 1-3 inches in the valleys. Here in the upper valley, a general 2-5 inches is expected, with 4-6+ possible above 1000 feet. The White Mtns and northern New England might actually miss the heaviest precipitation this time.
Important update tomorrow morning...temperatures are going to be very marginal in southern NH and northern MA, so elevation will make all the difference in the world.
The potential is there for several inches of snow tomorrow night and Saturday morning, as a low pressure system quickly passes south of New England. Temperatures are going to be marginal in southern NH and northern MA, and with temperatures going up into the 50s tomorrow, chances are this will start as rain. Here in the upper valley, it will probably start as rain as well, but transition over to snow earlier.
As cold air works in to the storm, and if it comes down hard enough, the rain will change over to snow in southern NH. One model shows a pretty good dousing of liquid equivalent precipitation late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and a good amount of that could be snow.
We're getting closer to spring now, so elevation will play a large factor, meaning, the higher elevations will pick up more. Early estimates would be an advisory level snow is possible, meaning 3-6 inches in the hills of northern MA and southern NH, and 1-3 inches in the valleys. Here in the upper valley, a general 2-5 inches is expected, with 4-6+ possible above 1000 feet. The White Mtns and northern New England might actually miss the heaviest precipitation this time.
Important update tomorrow morning...temperatures are going to be very marginal in southern NH and northern MA, so elevation will make all the difference in the world.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Quick Post
The NAM computer model and GFS computer model are beginning to agree...on a potential New England snowstorm Sunday. The NAM slams us, and the GFS gives interior southern New England a pretty decent blizzard...yes blizzard.
Still a few more days to look at this. I think the computer models are starting to come to a solution now. There is real potential here, for at least a southern New England snowstorm this weekend, and potentially all of New England. Not much more to say, just that the storm is trending towards the coast. This needs to be watched.
Still a few more days to look at this. I think the computer models are starting to come to a solution now. There is real potential here, for at least a southern New England snowstorm this weekend, and potentially all of New England. Not much more to say, just that the storm is trending towards the coast. This needs to be watched.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Looking Ahead to Spring.....What Could It Bring?
It's March 12th, so people are ready for spring. Hell, some are ready for summer. I don't want to sound "doom and gloom," but I thought I'd mention this because we already had to deal with it this weekend.
,
There is a very real threat of flooding this spring across all of New England. Not only has there been near record snowfall in many areas (and by the way, winter isn't over yet, and we're probably not realistically out of the woods until April), but the water equivalent of the snow is extraordinarily high this year. The snow pack in the White and Green Mtns isn't unusually high for winters in the past, but it is higher than the last couple of winters. The combination of a deep snow pack and high water equivalent will lead to cause significant melting and the potential for flooding in a couple of weeks. Here are a couple of pictures. First, the snow pack....
Apologies for the lack of legend...I'll explain what the colors mean.
There is a solid 50+ inches of snow on the ground across much of NH, VT, and ME with more in the higher elevations. Its not impossible that snow depths are up around or possibly exceeding 100 inches along favored ridges. Again, thats actually not completely uncommon. But here is what make things interesting....the water equivalent.
Explanation: There is, on average, 10-20 inches of water equivalent in the snow. We picked up another 1-2 inches this weekend, and the snow acted like a sponge and just absorbed it, and locked the water in for later. It also glazed over on the trees, and there is 2-4 inches of glaze on some trees above 3500 feet in parts of the White Mtns.
Example of the glaze, taken this weekend. This isn't my picture.
http://rbhayes.net/latest/Darlene-W48/images/IMG_9216.jpg
I did take pics from a hike, and I'll try to get them posted later. The snow depths are amazing. Trees are just barely sticking out at this point...
Anyways, no matter how slow the melt is this year, we really can't avoid the flooding threat. And I think there is more winter ahead of us, because northern New England might be going into a colder than normal pattern starting next weekend, so any precipitation chances could be in the form of snow. Plus, we haven't had a classic nor'easter all year, and the pattern is shaping up that is a bit more conducive for those to form. These are all "what ifs" of course...
But even if we don't get one more inch of snow this year, the flooding threat is real, and we'll be dealing with it through May. The snow pack isn't going anywhere for awhile, and its hard as a rock up north, like a glacier actually. And there is a good chance it will be hanging around through June in the higher elevations, even outside of the normal places like Tuckerman Ravine.
BTW, Concord has picked up over 109 inches of snow for the season. They need a little under 13 inches to record their snowiest season on record.
,
There is a very real threat of flooding this spring across all of New England. Not only has there been near record snowfall in many areas (and by the way, winter isn't over yet, and we're probably not realistically out of the woods until April), but the water equivalent of the snow is extraordinarily high this year. The snow pack in the White and Green Mtns isn't unusually high for winters in the past, but it is higher than the last couple of winters. The combination of a deep snow pack and high water equivalent will lead to cause significant melting and the potential for flooding in a couple of weeks. Here are a couple of pictures. First, the snow pack....
Apologies for the lack of legend...I'll explain what the colors mean.
There is a solid 50+ inches of snow on the ground across much of NH, VT, and ME with more in the higher elevations. Its not impossible that snow depths are up around or possibly exceeding 100 inches along favored ridges. Again, thats actually not completely uncommon. But here is what make things interesting....the water equivalent.
Explanation: There is, on average, 10-20 inches of water equivalent in the snow. We picked up another 1-2 inches this weekend, and the snow acted like a sponge and just absorbed it, and locked the water in for later. It also glazed over on the trees, and there is 2-4 inches of glaze on some trees above 3500 feet in parts of the White Mtns.
Example of the glaze, taken this weekend. This isn't my picture.
http://rbhayes.net/latest/Darlene-W48/images/IMG_9216.jpg
I did take pics from a hike, and I'll try to get them posted later. The snow depths are amazing. Trees are just barely sticking out at this point...
Anyways, no matter how slow the melt is this year, we really can't avoid the flooding threat. And I think there is more winter ahead of us, because northern New England might be going into a colder than normal pattern starting next weekend, so any precipitation chances could be in the form of snow. Plus, we haven't had a classic nor'easter all year, and the pattern is shaping up that is a bit more conducive for those to form. These are all "what ifs" of course...
But even if we don't get one more inch of snow this year, the flooding threat is real, and we'll be dealing with it through May. The snow pack isn't going anywhere for awhile, and its hard as a rock up north, like a glacier actually. And there is a good chance it will be hanging around through June in the higher elevations, even outside of the normal places like Tuckerman Ravine.
BTW, Concord has picked up over 109 inches of snow for the season. They need a little under 13 inches to record their snowiest season on record.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Model Inconsistency
This is why I don't normally get all excited about a big storm 5-6 days ahead of time. The beautiful storm that was modeled last night, and this morning, is now gone. Actually, the model I posted last night was the only one that had latched onto that solution, and now it is trending toward the other ones, a miss for everybody. But its still several days away, and will jump another 200 miles in either direction 10 more times through Friday. For giggles, I'm going to post the very latest GFS computer model. Last night and this morning, we were getting hit HARD. Now, nothing. Time to figure out if this is just a model "fart" or a real trend. I'm leaning toward a trend since the other computers models really don't have a New England snowstorm. Plenty of time to watch.
Beautiful Storm on Computer Models
Well, one computer model anyways. Talk about a St Patricks Day delight....
People are sick of winter....bitching every day, and I load up the GFS, check out the patterns of a potential negative NAO, and see this storm bombing off Cape Cod, right near the benchmark. Taken verbatim, this has the potential to produce big snows from New Jersey to Maine. But it will probably change 47 times thru Sunday.
The storm would be sometime later this weekend, if it verified. Too much time for it to change...but something that needs to be watched very closely. The transition month of December was a bear around here, so the transition month of March could be just as bad. Plus, we haven't had a classic nor'easter all year!
So, here is the storm all the weather weenies are getting wood to....
People are sick of winter....bitching every day, and I load up the GFS, check out the patterns of a potential negative NAO, and see this storm bombing off Cape Cod, right near the benchmark. Taken verbatim, this has the potential to produce big snows from New Jersey to Maine. But it will probably change 47 times thru Sunday.
The storm would be sometime later this weekend, if it verified. Too much time for it to change...but something that needs to be watched very closely. The transition month of December was a bear around here, so the transition month of March could be just as bad. Plus, we haven't had a classic nor'easter all year!
So, here is the storm all the weather weenies are getting wood to....
Sunday, March 9, 2008
From the Gray Maine forecast discussion...
"WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS. ICE HAS BEEN MOVING ON
SEERAL RIVERS. THERE IS STILL A FLOOD WARNING ON THE SACO AT
CONWAY DUE TO AN ICE JAM. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE
PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT PLYMOUTH FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING."
I'm in Plymouth right now. Hope all is well. A few years ago an ice jam snuck up on Plymouth and destroyed hundreds of cars parked in their PE center. Many floated miles downstream. It was literally a disaster.
Here is the current state of the Pemigewasset River in Plymouth.
The blue line shows that the river crested at 11.26 ft earlier today, and hopefully the drop will continue. But with ice jams, you never know, and the water level could spike up in minutes. Hopefully everyone is on guard and ready to take action just in case there is a flood, because the PE center is on the flood plain, and many park their cars there.
Anyways, I'll be hone later. I went hiking today and I'll post some pics of it.
"WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS. ICE HAS BEEN MOVING ON
SEERAL RIVERS. THERE IS STILL A FLOOD WARNING ON THE SACO AT
CONWAY DUE TO AN ICE JAM. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE
PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT PLYMOUTH FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAM FLOODING."
I'm in Plymouth right now. Hope all is well. A few years ago an ice jam snuck up on Plymouth and destroyed hundreds of cars parked in their PE center. Many floated miles downstream. It was literally a disaster.
Here is the current state of the Pemigewasset River in Plymouth.
The blue line shows that the river crested at 11.26 ft earlier today, and hopefully the drop will continue. But with ice jams, you never know, and the water level could spike up in minutes. Hopefully everyone is on guard and ready to take action just in case there is a flood, because the PE center is on the flood plain, and many park their cars there.
Anyways, I'll be hone later. I went hiking today and I'll post some pics of it.
Friday, March 7, 2008
NWS WInter Weather Advisory
While I don't necessarily agree with it, there is a winter weather advisory for the area, so I thought I'd just post what it says.
NHZ003-005-006-080500-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0009.080308T0000Z-080309T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0010.080308T0100Z-080309T1200Z/
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITTLETON...LEBANON...HANOVER...
PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO
344 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
EXPECT A STORM TOTAL OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE.
PRECIPITATION WILL START THIS EVENING AS SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN SPOTS. EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
EXPECT A BREAK SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO VARY BY ELEVATION...WITH ELEVATIONS
OVER 1000 FEET LIKELY SEEING GREATER ICE ACCRETION THAN THE
VALLEYS.
We'll see what happens. Its 46 in Lebanon right now, precip still many hours off. Have a good weekend!
NHZ003-005-006-080500-
/O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0009.080308T0000Z-080309T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.WW.Y.0010.080308T0100Z-080309T1200Z/
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITTLETON...LEBANON...HANOVER...
PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO
344 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
EXPECT A STORM TOTAL OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE.
PRECIPITATION WILL START THIS EVENING AS SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN SPOTS. EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
EXPECT A BREAK SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO VARY BY ELEVATION...WITH ELEVATIONS
OVER 1000 FEET LIKELY SEEING GREATER ICE ACCRETION THAN THE
VALLEYS.
We'll see what happens. Its 46 in Lebanon right now, precip still many hours off. Have a good weekend!
More Wet Than White
I'm hesitant to post this before looking at all the latest data, but looking at the precipitation on radar, and looking at trends, this storm looks like more of a wet storm than a white storm for the local area. Winds have already switched to the southeast at the airport, which normally means a warm storm in the valley, and I'm pretty confident about this.
The storm will come in two hits. Tonight, its forecast to come in after 1 am, but looking at radar, the precip is way ahead of schedule so I'd say sometime between 7 and 10pm. Dew points are in the 20s, so there will be some evaporational cooling at the start, so temperatures might cool towards freezing at the onset, allowing for some sleet or wet snow to mix in, but I still think that this is going to be primarily a rain storm for the area despite the winter storm watch and the current NWS forecast. If we get heavy precipitation tonight, cold air will work down from upper levels and we will get a longer period of sleet or wet snow, so that is the only thing that has to be watched. Despite the track of the storm (south of us), there is too much warm air aloft and we hit the upper 40s today, so there is a lot of warm air to go around.
Tomorrow, the next storm will move through and it means business. The expected track will be west of us, and that means rain, and possibly a couple thunderstorms, especially in southern New England. The best chance of any significant ice appears to be in the Champlain Valley in NW Vermont, and possibly where some cold air damming sets up in northern New England. But not here.
Snow chances will be limited to extreme northern New England where 2-5 or maybe 6+ will fall in the White Mtns, esp on the back side of the storm with upslope, and the jackpot will be extreme northern Maine, with a solid 12+ inches of snow.
Something to consider....flooding. Approximately 1-3 inches of rain will fall this weekend, and snow is going to melt. Hopefully temperatures will stay cool enough and the snow will absorb the rainfall, but if it doesn't Saturday afternoon and night could be very messy with minor to moderate flooding in prone areas. The immediate threats appear to be southern New England, where 3+ inches of rain is possible, and temperatures are expected to mid to upper 40s, along with "snow eating" fog. But it is something that needs to be watched across all of New England, especially if there is an ice jam, since most rivers are still ice covered.
Sunday looks better. Sunny, breezy, and in the low to mid 30s. Flash freeze possible Saturday night.
Updates if I get a chance this weekend. I'll be gone.
The storm will come in two hits. Tonight, its forecast to come in after 1 am, but looking at radar, the precip is way ahead of schedule so I'd say sometime between 7 and 10pm. Dew points are in the 20s, so there will be some evaporational cooling at the start, so temperatures might cool towards freezing at the onset, allowing for some sleet or wet snow to mix in, but I still think that this is going to be primarily a rain storm for the area despite the winter storm watch and the current NWS forecast. If we get heavy precipitation tonight, cold air will work down from upper levels and we will get a longer period of sleet or wet snow, so that is the only thing that has to be watched. Despite the track of the storm (south of us), there is too much warm air aloft and we hit the upper 40s today, so there is a lot of warm air to go around.
Tomorrow, the next storm will move through and it means business. The expected track will be west of us, and that means rain, and possibly a couple thunderstorms, especially in southern New England. The best chance of any significant ice appears to be in the Champlain Valley in NW Vermont, and possibly where some cold air damming sets up in northern New England. But not here.
Snow chances will be limited to extreme northern New England where 2-5 or maybe 6+ will fall in the White Mtns, esp on the back side of the storm with upslope, and the jackpot will be extreme northern Maine, with a solid 12+ inches of snow.
Something to consider....flooding. Approximately 1-3 inches of rain will fall this weekend, and snow is going to melt. Hopefully temperatures will stay cool enough and the snow will absorb the rainfall, but if it doesn't Saturday afternoon and night could be very messy with minor to moderate flooding in prone areas. The immediate threats appear to be southern New England, where 3+ inches of rain is possible, and temperatures are expected to mid to upper 40s, along with "snow eating" fog. But it is something that needs to be watched across all of New England, especially if there is an ice jam, since most rivers are still ice covered.
Sunday looks better. Sunny, breezy, and in the low to mid 30s. Flash freeze possible Saturday night.
Updates if I get a chance this weekend. I'll be gone.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Quick Update
North South Valley screwed us....err saved us again. The cold air never really told hold last night and then when the southeast wind took over this morning warm air flooded all levels and changed any frozen precipitation over to rain. It was definitely borderline in the first place, with sleet when the precip was heavy, and some freezing rain when it was lighter. I'm curious as to how elevations above 1500 feet, away from the CT valley fared.
Another storm slated for early this weekend (possibly big)! Early call looks like snow to rain in southern NH, and possibly all snow here. But one storm at a time!
Another storm slated for early this weekend (possibly big)! Early call looks like snow to rain in southern NH, and possibly all snow here. But one storm at a time!
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Kitchen Sink On the Way
Possible significant ice storm on the way, especially across elevated areas...
Last night was an interesting one. Locations with a direct south wind were in the 40s all evening and slowly dropped into the upper 30s before the precipitation moved in, but areas that were protected from the wind dropped into the low and mid 30s and had black ice form on untreated surfaces, and then down along the CT river, there was actually a light north wind (talk about inversion!) with a temperature of 25 degrees at midnight. So there were some extremely icy spots this morning as I had feared, but now those are gone since we're all in the 40s out ahead of the cold front. Once that front moves through, the stage will be set for a potentially significant sleet/ice storm.
The cold front has just moved through Hanover as our winds have switched from SW to NW and the pressure is rising. Now we wait to see how much cold air bleeds into the valley. It will definitely work into the hills around 1000-2000 feet, but just how much settles in to the lower valley will play a big role on how much freezing rain accretes.
For what its worth, a winter storm warning is in effect from 7pm tonight till 4pm Wednesday afternoon, for the moderate to heavy precip that moves as in temps drop below freezing.
Here is my best guess:
Lebanon starts out with some sleet or icy snow and change over to sleet for a short period and then go over to plain sleet for a couple hours, and then freezing rain towards midnight. This is important because sleet is easier to drive on than freezing rain, and if the cold is more shallow initially, there will be more freezing rain, and driving conditions will be much worse tonight. Winds will be out of the east, and there will be classic cold air damming below 2000 ft. This means that the cold air will be very difficult to budge tomorrow, and temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. In the end, with a 10-15 south wind taking over Wednesday, I think Lebanon will change over to plain rain before the storm ends, but not before a decent amount of ice accretes to sidewalks, trees, powerlines, and roads. Locations protected from the wind probably won't get above freezing tomorrow, and elevated locations will prob stay below freezing, so there, significant ice accumulation is likely. The worst case scenario will be averted in the valley because of the speed of the storm, the eventual change to rain, but if you live up in the hills, power outages are definitely likely. Its possible that one inch of ice could build up on powerlines there. I'd say 1/4 to 1/2 inch will add up in the valley, depending on your location. The mixed precip should be out of here by late tomorrow afternoon.
Ice storms are more difficult to predict than snowstorms, so I'll have an update tonight.
Last night was an interesting one. Locations with a direct south wind were in the 40s all evening and slowly dropped into the upper 30s before the precipitation moved in, but areas that were protected from the wind dropped into the low and mid 30s and had black ice form on untreated surfaces, and then down along the CT river, there was actually a light north wind (talk about inversion!) with a temperature of 25 degrees at midnight. So there were some extremely icy spots this morning as I had feared, but now those are gone since we're all in the 40s out ahead of the cold front. Once that front moves through, the stage will be set for a potentially significant sleet/ice storm.
The cold front has just moved through Hanover as our winds have switched from SW to NW and the pressure is rising. Now we wait to see how much cold air bleeds into the valley. It will definitely work into the hills around 1000-2000 feet, but just how much settles in to the lower valley will play a big role on how much freezing rain accretes.
For what its worth, a winter storm warning is in effect from 7pm tonight till 4pm Wednesday afternoon, for the moderate to heavy precip that moves as in temps drop below freezing.
Here is my best guess:
Lebanon starts out with some sleet or icy snow and change over to sleet for a short period and then go over to plain sleet for a couple hours, and then freezing rain towards midnight. This is important because sleet is easier to drive on than freezing rain, and if the cold is more shallow initially, there will be more freezing rain, and driving conditions will be much worse tonight. Winds will be out of the east, and there will be classic cold air damming below 2000 ft. This means that the cold air will be very difficult to budge tomorrow, and temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. In the end, with a 10-15 south wind taking over Wednesday, I think Lebanon will change over to plain rain before the storm ends, but not before a decent amount of ice accretes to sidewalks, trees, powerlines, and roads. Locations protected from the wind probably won't get above freezing tomorrow, and elevated locations will prob stay below freezing, so there, significant ice accumulation is likely. The worst case scenario will be averted in the valley because of the speed of the storm, the eventual change to rain, but if you live up in the hills, power outages are definitely likely. Its possible that one inch of ice could build up on powerlines there. I'd say 1/4 to 1/2 inch will add up in the valley, depending on your location. The mixed precip should be out of here by late tomorrow afternoon.
Ice storms are more difficult to predict than snowstorms, so I'll have an update tonight.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Drip, drip, drip....for now
Low temperatures are very difficult to predict. I expected it to get below zero last night since we were dropping like a rock, but it stopped dropping at 3 (not that anyone really notices the difference between 3 and -3). High clouds moved in and the southerly flow took hold. Now, the temperature is already up to 35, despite cloudy skies. There is some light precipitation to our north, and it should stay away, but there is an outside chance of a few sprinkles or sleet pellets this afternoon. Nothing to worry about, temperatures will be in the low 40s.
Tonight is still intriguing, because despite the southwest wind, our temperatures will drop to near freezing, and if we get some spotty light precipitation, it could freeze on contact with surfaces like sidewalks or back roads....basically anything untreated. Any borderline ice becomes alleviated Tuesday as everyone warms above freezing Tuesday out ahead of the cold front, and we have another day near 40 degrees.
Then the strange weather begins. Cold air will bleed into the upper valley as another storm works its way up from Pennsylvania, throwing in mixed precipitation, possibly in the form of sleet, going over to freezing rain. There could be a significant period of ice, especially in elevated areas over 1000 feet since the cold air has more time to settle into that area first. If it makes it into the valley floor, it will be tough to scour out. And that is the big wildcard.
The latest computer models have trended warmer with the storm, giving us freezing rain through Tuesday morning and then a south to southeast wind, which would mean a [possible changeover to rain, and then a dry slot (precipitation ends). For what its worth, NWS is still thinking that this will be a colder system than modeled, but since we're getting closer to the storm, and they've all trended warmer, I'm beginning to wonder. Because of the possibility of freezing rain, a winter storm watch will probably be issued sometime in the next 12-24 hours, hopefully sooner than later. Driving on snow is one thing, but ice is another. To sum up.
1) Possible light freezing drizzle first thing Tuesday morning, changing to rain.
2) Waiting for cold air to bleed in...setting the stage
3) Possible moderate ice storm (.25-.5 inches of ice) especially 1000 feet or higher, gradually changing over to rain from valleys to hilltops, with a SSE wind taking over Wednesday.
Big update coming tonight.
Also, HPC has us under a moderate risk of at least .25 inches of ice Wednesday...that makes me more confident on all that stuff I just wrote. :)
Tonight is still intriguing, because despite the southwest wind, our temperatures will drop to near freezing, and if we get some spotty light precipitation, it could freeze on contact with surfaces like sidewalks or back roads....basically anything untreated. Any borderline ice becomes alleviated Tuesday as everyone warms above freezing Tuesday out ahead of the cold front, and we have another day near 40 degrees.
Then the strange weather begins. Cold air will bleed into the upper valley as another storm works its way up from Pennsylvania, throwing in mixed precipitation, possibly in the form of sleet, going over to freezing rain. There could be a significant period of ice, especially in elevated areas over 1000 feet since the cold air has more time to settle into that area first. If it makes it into the valley floor, it will be tough to scour out. And that is the big wildcard.
The latest computer models have trended warmer with the storm, giving us freezing rain through Tuesday morning and then a south to southeast wind, which would mean a [possible changeover to rain, and then a dry slot (precipitation ends). For what its worth, NWS is still thinking that this will be a colder system than modeled, but since we're getting closer to the storm, and they've all trended warmer, I'm beginning to wonder. Because of the possibility of freezing rain, a winter storm watch will probably be issued sometime in the next 12-24 hours, hopefully sooner than later. Driving on snow is one thing, but ice is another. To sum up.
1) Possible light freezing drizzle first thing Tuesday morning, changing to rain.
2) Waiting for cold air to bleed in...setting the stage
3) Possible moderate ice storm (.25-.5 inches of ice) especially 1000 feet or higher, gradually changing over to rain from valleys to hilltops, with a SSE wind taking over Wednesday.
Big update coming tonight.
Also, HPC has us under a moderate risk of at least .25 inches of ice Wednesday...that makes me more confident on all that stuff I just wrote. :)
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Decouple
Lebanon was down to 7 degrees as of 11pm. Gotta love that fresh snow cover, along with a clear, calm night. The inversion has already set up, with single numbers down at the CT valley and mid teens around 800-1000 feet. The forecast was for a low of 12, but common sense and experience with a clear, calm night would point to a colder than expected forecast. I wouldn't be surprised if the airport dips below zero.
Very complex forecast on the way. And don't be shocked if there is a little glaze late Monday night or first thing Tuesday morning. Not much is being said about it, so those are the ones that always bite us in the ass.
But there is a bit of a squeeze play. We're out ahead of a warm front, and temperatures will warm up a lot tomorrow, with a southerly flow. Since Lebanon is in a north-south valley, the warm air can really work in on a south wind, and that will probably happen. Sunshine will be hard to come by, especially in the afternoon, but since its March, low 40s are not out of the question. The high temps are important for tomorrow night, because if we get warm enough, it will help to cut back the risk of freezing drizzle when precipitation moves in. Since winds should be south or southwest, I don't expect much of a problem for freezing rain, but because ground temperatures are very cold (we had -24 night last week, and near 0 tonight), there is a possibility that untreated surfaces could be slick Monday night and first thing Tuesday morning. A couple weeks ago (can't remember the day, we had freezing rain at a temperature of 36 degrees because the ground was subfreezing, so it can happen. Anything untreated was a skating rink, until temperatures rose to the low 40s, when the icing was alleviated. Ice mainly formed on sidewalks, roads, and the lower part of tree trunks...point being, anything closest to the surface, where the temperature was coldest.
Out ahead of the cold front Tuesday, we should rise into the upper 30s to near 40, along with some rain, but then the front will move through and temps will drop. And that sets the stage for the next storm...Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Lots of details to iron out, looking at a couple of different computer models face value...the warm one has us getting a lot of sleet, then some freezing rain and then rain. The colder storm has us getting a pretty serious sleet and freezing rain (glaze) storm. Ice storms are very difficult to figure out around here, but both models give elevated areas above 1000 feet a serious ice storm, with a possible borderline nasty ice storm in the CT valley. The wildcard appears to be a SE wind that will take over, and almost certainly warm up our temperatures toward Wednesday morning. It also means shadowing, so less precipitation locally...another thing to look at.
Again, we're in a north-south valley, so warm air will have no problem getting in here on a south or southeast wind. It all depends on how well the cold air settles down into the valley during the day Tuesday. Lots to figure out. But the potential is there. Some things that appear to be likely...somewhere in the northeast....
1) Heavy precipitation
2) Potential serious ice storm where it stays freezing rain, probably elevated areas above 1000 ft
3) Another decent hit of snow for the Green and White Mtns, and Longfellow Mtns of ME The rich keep getting richer. Backcountry weather conditions show up to 85 inches of snow at the stake in the White Mtns.
NWS thinks the storm will be colder, because of the cold air locked to the north. I don't necessarily agree for a few reasons...
1)Its March. Tougher and tougher to get cold storms, unless they're classic nor'easters.
2) Seasonal trend. Almost every storm was been warmer, and further north than forecast. Plus, most storms have developed late, and Lebanon has missed out on the heavy precipitation.
3) Climatology. Southeast wind in Lebanon is a kiss of death. We get shadowed and a north south valley warm air pumps in.
Hopefully I'll have a better idea tomorrow.
Edit, down to 3 in Lebanon. We'll be below zero tonight, thats almost a given.
Very complex forecast on the way. And don't be shocked if there is a little glaze late Monday night or first thing Tuesday morning. Not much is being said about it, so those are the ones that always bite us in the ass.
But there is a bit of a squeeze play. We're out ahead of a warm front, and temperatures will warm up a lot tomorrow, with a southerly flow. Since Lebanon is in a north-south valley, the warm air can really work in on a south wind, and that will probably happen. Sunshine will be hard to come by, especially in the afternoon, but since its March, low 40s are not out of the question. The high temps are important for tomorrow night, because if we get warm enough, it will help to cut back the risk of freezing drizzle when precipitation moves in. Since winds should be south or southwest, I don't expect much of a problem for freezing rain, but because ground temperatures are very cold (we had -24 night last week, and near 0 tonight), there is a possibility that untreated surfaces could be slick Monday night and first thing Tuesday morning. A couple weeks ago (can't remember the day, we had freezing rain at a temperature of 36 degrees because the ground was subfreezing, so it can happen. Anything untreated was a skating rink, until temperatures rose to the low 40s, when the icing was alleviated. Ice mainly formed on sidewalks, roads, and the lower part of tree trunks...point being, anything closest to the surface, where the temperature was coldest.
Out ahead of the cold front Tuesday, we should rise into the upper 30s to near 40, along with some rain, but then the front will move through and temps will drop. And that sets the stage for the next storm...Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Lots of details to iron out, looking at a couple of different computer models face value...the warm one has us getting a lot of sleet, then some freezing rain and then rain. The colder storm has us getting a pretty serious sleet and freezing rain (glaze) storm. Ice storms are very difficult to figure out around here, but both models give elevated areas above 1000 feet a serious ice storm, with a possible borderline nasty ice storm in the CT valley. The wildcard appears to be a SE wind that will take over, and almost certainly warm up our temperatures toward Wednesday morning. It also means shadowing, so less precipitation locally...another thing to look at.
Again, we're in a north-south valley, so warm air will have no problem getting in here on a south or southeast wind. It all depends on how well the cold air settles down into the valley during the day Tuesday. Lots to figure out. But the potential is there. Some things that appear to be likely...somewhere in the northeast....
1) Heavy precipitation
2) Potential serious ice storm where it stays freezing rain, probably elevated areas above 1000 ft
3) Another decent hit of snow for the Green and White Mtns, and Longfellow Mtns of ME The rich keep getting richer. Backcountry weather conditions show up to 85 inches of snow at the stake in the White Mtns.
NWS thinks the storm will be colder, because of the cold air locked to the north. I don't necessarily agree for a few reasons...
1)Its March. Tougher and tougher to get cold storms, unless they're classic nor'easters.
2) Seasonal trend. Almost every storm was been warmer, and further north than forecast. Plus, most storms have developed late, and Lebanon has missed out on the heavy precipitation.
3) Climatology. Southeast wind in Lebanon is a kiss of death. We get shadowed and a north south valley warm air pumps in.
Hopefully I'll have a better idea tomorrow.
Edit, down to 3 in Lebanon. We'll be below zero tonight, thats almost a given.
Somehow, We Got Four Inches
It didn't all come from the storm...it came from the squalls after. We picked up 2 inches during the "heavy snowstorm" and then 2 more inches after squalls, so in a weird way, we picked up 4 inches of snow, and my 4-8 inches of snow kind of came true, but not in the way I thought it would. Oh well, no complaints here. Its definitely not something very noticeable, especially since we hit the mid 30s yesterday and there was some melting, but we definitely picked up a total of 4 inches between the storm and squalls. So lucky me...
I was supposed to go hiking today, but as usual, plans get screwed up, so here I am. Maybe I'll take a walk later, but I'm sick of walking the same damn trail over and over.
I was supposed to go hiking today, but as usual, plans get screwed up, so here I am. Maybe I'll take a walk later, but I'm sick of walking the same damn trail over and over.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Shadowed
Wow. I felt like I was in college again. I hate the Connecticut Valley. And I learned a very valuable lesson. If there is a stiff southeast wind coming into Lebanon, not only will we get shadowed, but it will rob almost all moisture. Skies are brightening up as we speak and I'm confident to call this storm done in these parts. My accumulations of 4-8 inches were a bust, but not as much as the 8-12 NWS was calling for. I knew that we'd get shadowed, but, holy cow! As of 6am, there was one inch of snow in Hanover. I'll have to do the official measurement when this entire system moves out, but I doubt we'll pick up three more inches by tonight. There is a chance of some renegade squalls this afternoon, but not much accumulation is expected.
Not all areas busted. Moderate to heavy snow is being reported in the white mountains all the way down into Manchester NH and east. The storm developed a little late (again) and missed Lebanon (again) so we were nickel and dimed with snow (again). Except this time, since the shadowing was so severe, I'd say we were "pennied." Despite missing all these storms, we've totaled over 80 inches this year, which is above normal for the date, and above normal for the year. But for the state, we're in a snow hole, as many places have over 100 inches.
Oh well, there are two more legit storm threats next week, and both could be very nasty depending on their track. Its March, transition month, and this is one of the strongest La Ninas on record. Bring it.
Not all areas busted. Moderate to heavy snow is being reported in the white mountains all the way down into Manchester NH and east. The storm developed a little late (again) and missed Lebanon (again) so we were nickel and dimed with snow (again). Except this time, since the shadowing was so severe, I'd say we were "pennied." Despite missing all these storms, we've totaled over 80 inches this year, which is above normal for the date, and above normal for the year. But for the state, we're in a snow hole, as many places have over 100 inches.
Oh well, there are two more legit storm threats next week, and both could be very nasty depending on their track. Its March, transition month, and this is one of the strongest La Ninas on record. Bring it.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)