More Wet Than White

I'm hesitant to post this before looking at all the latest data, but looking at the precipitation on radar, and looking at trends, this storm looks like more of a wet storm than a white storm for the local area. Winds have already switched to the southeast at the airport, which normally means a warm storm in the valley, and I'm pretty confident about this.



The storm will come in two hits. Tonight, its forecast to come in after 1 am, but looking at radar, the precip is way ahead of schedule so I'd say sometime between 7 and 10pm. Dew points are in the 20s, so there will be some evaporational cooling at the start, so temperatures might cool towards freezing at the onset, allowing for some sleet or wet snow to mix in, but I still think that this is going to be primarily a rain storm for the area despite the winter storm watch and the current NWS forecast. If we get heavy precipitation tonight, cold air will work down from upper levels and we will get a longer period of sleet or wet snow, so that is the only thing that has to be watched. Despite the track of the storm (south of us), there is too much warm air aloft and we hit the upper 40s today, so there is a lot of warm air to go around.

Tomorrow, the next storm will move through and it means business. The expected track will be west of us, and that means rain, and possibly a couple thunderstorms, especially in southern New England. The best chance of any significant ice appears to be in the Champlain Valley in NW Vermont, and possibly where some cold air damming sets up in northern New England. But not here.

Snow chances will be limited to extreme northern New England where 2-5 or maybe 6+ will fall in the White Mtns, esp on the back side of the storm with upslope, and the jackpot will be extreme northern Maine, with a solid 12+ inches of snow.

Something to consider....flooding. Approximately 1-3 inches of rain will fall this weekend, and snow is going to melt. Hopefully temperatures will stay cool enough and the snow will absorb the rainfall, but if it doesn't Saturday afternoon and night could be very messy with minor to moderate flooding in prone areas. The immediate threats appear to be southern New England, where 3+ inches of rain is possible, and temperatures are expected to mid to upper 40s, along with "snow eating" fog. But it is something that needs to be watched across all of New England, especially if there is an ice jam, since most rivers are still ice covered.

Sunday looks better. Sunny, breezy, and in the low to mid 30s. Flash freeze possible Saturday night.


Updates if I get a chance this weekend. I'll be gone.