Low Confidence

Just what people want to hear...another low confidence forecast for the next rain and snow storm. Lots of factors.

1) Mild temperatures this afternoon: Highs will make it into at least the mid 40s in Lebanon, and 45-52 in southern NH and northern MA.

2) Timing of the storm: The heaviest will fall during the overnight hours, which could maximize the chance of snow, but with so much warm air around, it depends on where you live.

3) Elevation: This storm will be very elevation dependent, meaning, the higher you live, the more snow you're likely to pick up.

4) Intensity of precipitation: The heavier it is, the better chance that colder air gets dragged down from above and it changes the rain over to heavy, wet snow later tonight.

5) Cutoff: There appears to be a sharp cutoff in the precipitation, meaning, west of the CT River Valley, there won't be much of anything. Lebanon is in the valley, so it is going to be a very close call here. We could be on the 1-2 inch line, or the 2-5 inch line very easily, within 5-10 miles.

Putting it all together

Southern NH, Northern MA
Rain should move in during the mid evening across western New England and come down light to moderate at times. After midnight, cold air will filter in at the upper elevations and should change the rain over to wet snow, and if it comes down hard enough, there will be a complete changeover to the valley floor early. The best estimate for snow is 1-2 inches of glop on the grass in the valleys with up to four inches in slightly elevated areas (400-800 feet) and potentially 4-6 inches in the Monadnocks or above 800-1000 feet. If the precipitation is light, it will be mostly rain, with lighter snow at the end, and little accumulation. If its heavy, there will be beautiful snow sticking to the trees by the time the snow gets out of here Saturday morning.

Upper Valley
Elevation will play a role here as well, with rain to start, changing to snow. The valley will probably pick up 1-3 inches, with 2-5 inches in the hills. We're right on the line of the light, and steady precipitation, so it is a close call for the heavier snow. If it moves just a few miles west, we'll be talking 2-5 inches with 4-6 in the hills.

Updates tonight when everything is underway.