Early, as usual. Occasional light snow will pick up during the day. There will be a changeover to sleet and freezing rain at some point in the storm, but I'm not sure when. This storm is a total crapshoot.
Right now, there is heavy snow going on all the way down to New Orleans. All they need is 5 inches in one storm to get an all time record, and its snowing at 1-2 inches per hour. So...they will most likely get a top ten snowfall today, with an outside chance of an alltime record.
I mention New Orleans because that wasn't expected. This storm is already surprising forecasters. The storm, so far, is much warmer than originally expected, to the point where there is plain rain falling in Manchester, though it should start to freeze soon. If forecasts verify, the temps will slowly drop this afternoon, and hold steady tonight. But I don't have a lot of confidence on any forecast with any computer models. Right now they show us on the line of being 6-10 inches, or 1-2 feet, depending on the mix. Since I have to decide, I'll go with 5-9 inches, with a lot of sleet and freezing rain. I don't think we can escape the warmer mid level air that will change the snow over to sleet later today. But we'll see. If it stays snow, we'll get over a foot.
The only thing I can guarantee....roads will be a mess tonight.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Quick update
I don't think I was very clear on the flash freeze today. The cold front "just" moved thru and already the temps are dropping into the upper 40s. Id say the flash freeze will be underway anytime in the late afternoon, esp after dark. Temps will probably drop 10-15 degrees over the next hour, and up to 20 degrees over the upper elevations. So the flash freeze could get underway a bit earlier there.
Ready to drop the bomb...
We've had about 45 days of teasing winter weather, with light snow showers, flurries, and occasionally some light accumulations. Now the first biggie of the year is on the way. But first...check out the temps.
Lebanon 56
Keene 55
Concord 57
Manchester 57
Nashua 58
Lawrence 60
But, further north...
Plymouth 39
Whitefield 42
St J, VT- 39
Lyndonville, VT 37
Burlington 31 (light snow)
Pittsburg NH 31 (light snow)
That cold weather is on its way later this afternoon and this evening, and it will do two things. First the temps will drop and any leftover precip will change over to freezing rain, sleet, and then snow before ending. There will most likely be a flash freeze tonight since temps have been dropping on average of 16-20 degrees in 15 min across VT. So driving will be tough where areas are not treated this evening.
The second issue we have is the winter storm that is moving up the coast tomorrow. Timing is still a little hairy, but it will probably be moving up into southern New England by mid to late morning. There is will be in the form of rain along the coast, and freezing rain, sleet and a touch of snow at the start, going over to mainly freezing rain for an extended period. Across our region, there is a high probability of the precipitation coming in as heavy snow, and possibly staying all snow. There is an equal chance that we could change over to sleet and freezing rain partway thru the storm, but either way its going to be an absolute mess Thursday afternoon till Friday morning. Whoever stays all snow will get 12+ inches of snow. Places who flip over to sleet and freezing rain, probably 4-6 inches with an accretion of ice on top. The best chances of all snow will most likely be the mountains and foothills of NH and VT. Here in Lebanon, its going to be close, as usual...between all snow and a mix. Either way, it spells nasty driving.
Winter storm watches have been put up for the area, outlining the potentials.
To sum up, two threats....
1) Flash freeze this evening with a little mixed precip/snow, further complicating matters.
2) First major winter storm of the season tomorrow afternoon thru Friday morn.
Another update tonight. Hopefully I'll be able to get some accumulations.
Lebanon 56
Keene 55
Concord 57
Manchester 57
Nashua 58
Lawrence 60
But, further north...
Plymouth 39
Whitefield 42
St J, VT- 39
Lyndonville, VT 37
Burlington 31 (light snow)
Pittsburg NH 31 (light snow)
That cold weather is on its way later this afternoon and this evening, and it will do two things. First the temps will drop and any leftover precip will change over to freezing rain, sleet, and then snow before ending. There will most likely be a flash freeze tonight since temps have been dropping on average of 16-20 degrees in 15 min across VT. So driving will be tough where areas are not treated this evening.
The second issue we have is the winter storm that is moving up the coast tomorrow. Timing is still a little hairy, but it will probably be moving up into southern New England by mid to late morning. There is will be in the form of rain along the coast, and freezing rain, sleet and a touch of snow at the start, going over to mainly freezing rain for an extended period. Across our region, there is a high probability of the precipitation coming in as heavy snow, and possibly staying all snow. There is an equal chance that we could change over to sleet and freezing rain partway thru the storm, but either way its going to be an absolute mess Thursday afternoon till Friday morning. Whoever stays all snow will get 12+ inches of snow. Places who flip over to sleet and freezing rain, probably 4-6 inches with an accretion of ice on top. The best chances of all snow will most likely be the mountains and foothills of NH and VT. Here in Lebanon, its going to be close, as usual...between all snow and a mix. Either way, it spells nasty driving.
Winter storm watches have been put up for the area, outlining the potentials.
To sum up, two threats....
1) Flash freeze this evening with a little mixed precip/snow, further complicating matters.
2) First major winter storm of the season tomorrow afternoon thru Friday morn.
Another update tonight. Hopefully I'll be able to get some accumulations.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)