Colllaborating offices.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
517 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

VTZ012-292215-
WINDSOR-
INCLUDING...SPRINGFIELD
517 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

AT 517 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH SPRINGFIELD IN WINDSOR COUNTY...MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER THROUGH 615
PM...AFFECTING TOWNS AND LOCALITIES UP TO THE WOODSTOCK AND NORTH
HARTLAND AREAS. YOU CAN EXPECT TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NHZ007-292215-
SULLIVAN-
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLOWS FALLS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND LANGDON...CHARLESTOWN...ACWORTH...
LEMPSTER...WEST UNITY...EAST LEMPSTER...CLAREMONT...UNITY...GOSHEN
AND PLAINFIELD THROUGH 615 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE

Getting their act together rapidly

NHZ007-008-292100-
MERRIMACK-SULLIVAN-
354 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN COUNTY AND MERRIMACK
COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEWPORT TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ACWORTH MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND UNITY...NEWPORT...SUNAPEE...ACWORTH...LEMPSTER...GOSHEN...NEW
LONDON ...MOUNT SUNAPEE STATE PARK...JOHN HAY NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE AND EAST LEMPSTER THROUGH 500 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

Gully washers possible

Severe thunderstorms are developing across SW New Hampshire this afternoon. So far, they aren't prolific lightning producers, but they are producing isolated damaging wind, and more importantly, incredible rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour.

The temp at which convection can begin is about 80 degrees today, and we have just reached that in Lebanon an hour ago, so I expect storms to develop nearby or overhead within an hour or two. It appears that a line is beginning just to our south, but that doesn't mean things wont develop locally. There is also a strong line of thunderstorms way out in western NYS, but those are moving north before east, so it will be some time before that line makes it here. In the meantime, prepare for isolated slow moving thunderstorms that drop a couple inches of rain in one hour.

The sun is out as much as it has been all day, so I really expect storms to develop...very soon.

One day break

Enjoy today. It will be a perfect summer afternoon, with temperatures in the low 80s. Tomorrow we're back into the thunder chances. In fact, the Storm prediction center thinks there is a severe weather probability.

"NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA...TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND. TSTMS MAY TEND TO
FOCUS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT /NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/...AND PERHAPS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL /SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN NY AND PA/. WITH AN APPROACHING SPEED MAXIMA
ALOFT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW /40-50 KT AT 500 MB/
AND MODEST VEERING WILL FAVOR WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME
SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
HAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

So there ya have it. We have another active day tomorrow, and more thunder is expected thru the weekend, with severe weather likely.

Hail in Hanover

1835 75 HANOVER GRAFTON NH 4370 7229 (GYX)

Thats hail 3/4 inch in diameter, just qualifying the thunderstorm as severe. It certainly was a nasty one. I really wish I had my camera handy because the clouds were some of the most impressive I have ever seen. THere was no haze in the sky so you could see the entire thunderstorm. It almost looked like it was ready to rotate.

Lebanon airport only picked up .01 inches of precip, but when you travel literally a mile north, the rainfall picked up dramatically. Doppler estimated around an inch of rain in about 20-25 min time. It was quite the storm on what seemed like a calm day. Temps were low, humidity was almost nonexistent...but there was another cold front moving thru, plus an upper level low, which made the air in the upper atmosphere very cold, and it helped to produce lots of hail in the storms today. I counted 39 severe hail reports in New England today...that a lot of hail. Because most storms produced hail...so 39 were actually severe. It was clearly a very active day.

Tomorrow? A one day break...but one of the top 10 days of the entire year. Sunny, mid to upper 70s, perfect.

Then more thunder potential the rest of the week. This is one of the more active patterns I can remember. Perhaps in July (normally the active lightning season), there will be a respite.

Possibly moving north to hit Lebanon early this AM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
402 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

NHZ007-008-231100-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CONCORD
402 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION BETWEEN 445 AM AND
600 AM. CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...BRADFORD...CONCORD...AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS MAY SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS THIS
WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. THOSE UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SHOULD STAY ALERT AS THIS POTENTIALLY THREATENING WEATHER MOVES THROUGH


Ya know, I wish I was sleeping right now. Major severe weather outbreak going on in Western New England, and it should push east northeast into NH soon.

Severe Weather Today

1621 300 ORANGE GRAFTON NH 4365 7197 3 INCH HAIL AT MT CARDIGAN (GYX)

Three inch hail at Mt Cardigan!! That's softball sized hail, something that rarely happens in this area. Another report...

1707 UNK ALEXANDRIA GRAFTON NH 4361 7179 TREES DOWN ON MT CARDIGAN ROAD.

Unknown wind gust knocked down trees on the road leading to Mt Cardigan. A tornado warning was issued with that storm, that has since canceled, but more severe weather is possible this afternoon. Id be willing to bet that NWS crews will be checking for tornado damage near Cardigan soon.

Storms are pretty much moving from south to north, or just slightly east of north, so we are under the gun the rest of the day. Plus, there are more showers and thunderstorms developing out in upstate NY and we may have to hear from those later this evening.

Looking at doppler radar rainfall estimates, it ranges anywhere from around .6-.75 inches in Hanover, (.57 officially at Lebanon airport) to 2 inches around Orange and Alexandria (Mt Cardigan area), and up to 2.5 inches near Laconia. So any storm that develops has the potential to produce flash flooding. The storm that was near Mt Cardigan produced 1.85 inches of rain in ten minutes...not a typo.

As for now, thunderstorms are possible at any time of the afternoon, so keep watching the sky if you have outdoor activities. Currently there is a batch of very heavy thunderstorms east of the area, and a few south and west of us, trying to develop. Those are moving in our general direction.


edit
A brand new severe thunderstorm watch was issued for upstate NY over to southern VT. That may be extended further east later today. We'll watch it. The rain cooled air may serve to temper the storms later, but if there is any sunshine this afternoon, it will only further destabilize the atmosphere.

Special Weather Statement

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH OR MORE...LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE WINDS ALOFT...WILL INTERACT WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS AND PRODUCE SOME
MINOR URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING.

So in other words, stay tuned!

Severe Thunderstorm Sideswipe

Well my headache predicted the storm again.....I'm 3 for 3. Hanover got a nasty little storm this afternoon, but it didn't really drop that much rain. I think it was developing overhead and it got worse a couple downs south. Enfield had one inch hail and 8 inch diameter trees down. Up in Tunbridge VT. a grain bin was overturned and was blown 200 feet, and a barn's roof was ripped off. Sounds like a very localized microburst to me. Either that, or less likely, a weak tornado. I bet ya the National Weather service will be checking out that area to see the extent of the damage.

Meanwhile, there was only five minutes of rain, and the dewpoint is even higher now, so it is disgusting outside. Temp is 80 with a dp of 75. UGH! Temp is up to 85 in the apt and I'm pretty much ready for winter again.

I took a few pics of the thunderstorm, and I'm going to post a few.















This sucker kind of died when it neared Hanover, and then blew up again right over town, and then pulsed up even more towards Enfield. You can see that in the pics. Lots of lightning, brief gusty winds, and a quick downpour was all it produced. But the lightning was vivid enough for people to take cover.

More thunder is on the way possibly late tonight, if the storms in Canada hold together. Tomorrow is a better chance for nasty thunderstorms as a backdoor front attempts to cross the area, though I don't know if its going to make it. Either way, thunder is possible, with temps up into the low 90s. Tuesday could be the hottest day, as the main front has slowed down so we will prob squeeze out one more awful day, with a potential for nasty thunderstorms later in the day. Lots to watch over! Hopefully I can get some sleep.

BTW, it hit 91 in Lebanon, and 92 in Hanover.

Hot Day Part 2

Current temp as of 11am at Lebanon...85 degrees. Current temp in Hanover as of now, 87. Its a hot one. When temps are closing in on 90 at noon, it usually spells out a day around 95 or 96. So we'll see how warm it gets.

There seems to be a little less haze in the sky today, but the clouds are much puffier than they were yesterday. Plus, its not even noon yet, so that makes me wonder about thunderstorm potential later this afternoon. The instability isn't great, but I already see thunderstorms popping up in New York. So chances are some sort of thunderstorm will threaten later today. Plus, I had a headache yesterday, and that usually means some sort of thunderstorm will threaten 24-36 hrs later. Let's see if my head nails the forecast again.. So far this year, it's 2 for 2.

It clearly looks like the heat humidity will extend into Tuesday, before the cold front moves though. Though on Monday, a back door cold front might come thru during the afternoon, putting a cap on the heat for a few hours, and adding the chances for thunderstorms. If we are to get on the cool side of the backdoor front, it will cool into the 70s or low 80s, but I think the front will stay just to our north. Keep fingers crossed. The cool down (if it happens) would be short lived, as the backdoor front moves back thru as a warm front Monday night, and serves as the focus for more thunderstorms Monday evening. We'll have to watch for an MCS again.

The heat will end later Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a chance for severe weather. I'll get into more about the chances for thunderstorms later this afternoon. Enjoy the heat....I guess. :)

Hot Enough For Ya?

Unofficially, it has hit 93 in Lebanon...hottest day of the year. The thunderstorm potential is low, but a few might form in VT and survive the trip to the CT river valley. But the atmosphere is sufficiently capped across most of NH, so if anything moves in it will be from the west, and prob in its dying stages. A mesoscale convective complex (MCS) is forming out in Wisconsin and should dive well to our south and west. There might be a few high clouds moving over the area from the outskirts of the MCS early tomorrow morning, but I don't think it will hinder our chances of hitting 90 degrees for the second straight day.

More on MCS's at this website.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_Convective_System

After the hot Sunday, and a chance of a pulse thunderstorm, our attention is turned to another potential MCS that is forecast to hit northern New England late Sunday night or Monday morning. It will be a dying system but lots of clouds will move in during the morning, which may limit temperatures a bit during the day. We'll see if that happens.

More later.

Are you ready to cook?

The heat and humidity has arrived. Temp is up to 76 in Lebanon with a dew point of 67, so it feels downright sticky out. Let me talk about dew points for a second.

Dew points
40s and lower: Comfortable, dry! AHH
50s- Normally comfortable during summer months, but may feel a little muggy in winter or early spring
60-65: Starting to get humid, though after a big heat wave with higher humidity 60-65 doesn't feel too bad. But when its the first time, it's nasty.
65-70: This is when you really begin to feel it. Everything is damp, and sweat comes naturally.
70+: Oppressive! Forget about going outside. You feel like you're swimming through the air. The highest dew point I've experienced was 80, and I hope I never feel that again. You break a sweat moving your eyes.

We're destined to have dew points (dp) in the 70s this weekend. Plus, the heat will become unbearable. Those without air conditioning, good luck. The only chance of relief will be in the form of scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, though most areas will stay rain free.

The heat has the potential to last straight through Tuesday, though a strong cold front will move through that day, putting an end to the oppressive heat and humidity. Though each day poses the risk of an afternoon thunderstorm, which could be severe, Tuesday appears to be the best chance for bad weather. Now, onto the forecast.

This afternoon: Becoming hazy, increasing hotter and humid. There is an outside risk of a thunderstorm late. Highs 87-93, warmest in western and southwest NH where the sun is out longest. Actually, the immediate coast might stay in the 70s today, especially along southerly facing beaches. Actually, those areas might stay in the upper 60s to near 70. Lucky...

Tonight: An early thunderstorm possible, then mainly clear, with patchy fog forming. Warm and humid. Lows in the 60s, upper 60s in the urban centers.

Sunday: Triple H....Hazy, hot and humid, with a slight chance of thunderstorm, esp up north. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Have fun...

Sunday night, early t-storm? Then clear and humid. Lows 65-70, warmer in the cities.

Monday: Hottest day potential. Highs 95-103. Slight risk of an afternoon t-storm, but the atmosphere might be capped enough to allow for thunder this day.

Tuesday: Transition day. Starting out sunny and hot, 87-92, then big thunderstorms in the afternoon, as a cold front makes its way in. Could be a significant outbreak, though the front is progressive, so the storms probably won't last long. Still a few days to look at this.


Also, an air quality alert has been hoisted. Just don't go out an exercise. It's already becoming increasingly difficult to breathe.

I'll have more updates when they become available.


I HATE heat.