Wow, I go to bed thinking everything is on schedule with timing, and snow amount, and I wake up thinking I slept thru two or three storms.
Our largest storm of the 2008-09 winter was 16.5 inches, back in December. We have a shot at breaking that today and tonight. Computer models have trended slightly further north with the warmer air, which means the storm will move further north, and bring its swath of heavy precipitation right over the Lebanon area. Evidence of this further north track are already being observed-
A coastal front has formed along the MA/NH border in Essex county. On one side, its about 30 degrees, and on the cold side its around 19-20. Within 20-40 miles north of the coastal front, there is usually very heavy snow, and there is a chance we will get into that band later this afternoon. I think the sleet line will make it up into southern NH, possibly as far north as Manchester and Concord. So just to the north and west, snow will accumulate up to 3 inches per hour and it will last till after midnight.
What could go wrong? There is a dry slot already forming in Pennsylvania heading towards New England. That SHOULD fill in when the storm moves off the coast and wraps in some more cold air. But we'll see.
Accumulation? At least a foot, and if we get into some of the heavier bands, I'd say 18-20 inches, with higher amounts likely. The average heaviest snowfall will be in Maine with 20-25 inches+ there. This is quite a development and a huge surprise to me. Normally I'd stick with my 10 inch amount, but the computer models have left me no choice but to raise them substantially. Hope I don't get burned for it...
Roads will go down hill rapidly today, and honestly, if yo live more than a mile from work, its not worth going in today. When it snows at more than an inch per hour, traveling is not recommended. Also, when it is snowing at more than 1 inch per hour, road crews have an impossible task of clearing the roads because they cannot keep up with the heavy accumulation.
I'll try to have more updates as the day goes on.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Big Change.
I haven't been excited about one storm all year, till this one.
So much for an inch or two of snow. The latest models shifted waaaay north, and tomorrow evening's storm will be an easy 6+ inches, thanks to good snow ratios. Maybe even 7-10?
So we get this storm, and then await the very cold arctic air on its way. Wouldn't be surprised if we go down to -25 at night if the wind dies down. Its going to be damn cold. That wont be till later next week.
More on the storm when I'm awake, and more on the cold after the storm ends.
Oh, kinda chilly tonight, -2 right now.
So much for an inch or two of snow. The latest models shifted waaaay north, and tomorrow evening's storm will be an easy 6+ inches, thanks to good snow ratios. Maybe even 7-10?
So we get this storm, and then await the very cold arctic air on its way. Wouldn't be surprised if we go down to -25 at night if the wind dies down. Its going to be damn cold. That wont be till later next week.
More on the storm when I'm awake, and more on the cold after the storm ends.
Oh, kinda chilly tonight, -2 right now.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Storm is underway
Early, as usual. Occasional light snow will pick up during the day. There will be a changeover to sleet and freezing rain at some point in the storm, but I'm not sure when. This storm is a total crapshoot.
Right now, there is heavy snow going on all the way down to New Orleans. All they need is 5 inches in one storm to get an all time record, and its snowing at 1-2 inches per hour. So...they will most likely get a top ten snowfall today, with an outside chance of an alltime record.
I mention New Orleans because that wasn't expected. This storm is already surprising forecasters. The storm, so far, is much warmer than originally expected, to the point where there is plain rain falling in Manchester, though it should start to freeze soon. If forecasts verify, the temps will slowly drop this afternoon, and hold steady tonight. But I don't have a lot of confidence on any forecast with any computer models. Right now they show us on the line of being 6-10 inches, or 1-2 feet, depending on the mix. Since I have to decide, I'll go with 5-9 inches, with a lot of sleet and freezing rain. I don't think we can escape the warmer mid level air that will change the snow over to sleet later today. But we'll see. If it stays snow, we'll get over a foot.
The only thing I can guarantee....roads will be a mess tonight.
Right now, there is heavy snow going on all the way down to New Orleans. All they need is 5 inches in one storm to get an all time record, and its snowing at 1-2 inches per hour. So...they will most likely get a top ten snowfall today, with an outside chance of an alltime record.
I mention New Orleans because that wasn't expected. This storm is already surprising forecasters. The storm, so far, is much warmer than originally expected, to the point where there is plain rain falling in Manchester, though it should start to freeze soon. If forecasts verify, the temps will slowly drop this afternoon, and hold steady tonight. But I don't have a lot of confidence on any forecast with any computer models. Right now they show us on the line of being 6-10 inches, or 1-2 feet, depending on the mix. Since I have to decide, I'll go with 5-9 inches, with a lot of sleet and freezing rain. I don't think we can escape the warmer mid level air that will change the snow over to sleet later today. But we'll see. If it stays snow, we'll get over a foot.
The only thing I can guarantee....roads will be a mess tonight.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Quick update
I don't think I was very clear on the flash freeze today. The cold front "just" moved thru and already the temps are dropping into the upper 40s. Id say the flash freeze will be underway anytime in the late afternoon, esp after dark. Temps will probably drop 10-15 degrees over the next hour, and up to 20 degrees over the upper elevations. So the flash freeze could get underway a bit earlier there.
Ready to drop the bomb...
We've had about 45 days of teasing winter weather, with light snow showers, flurries, and occasionally some light accumulations. Now the first biggie of the year is on the way. But first...check out the temps.
Lebanon 56
Keene 55
Concord 57
Manchester 57
Nashua 58
Lawrence 60
But, further north...
Plymouth 39
Whitefield 42
St J, VT- 39
Lyndonville, VT 37
Burlington 31 (light snow)
Pittsburg NH 31 (light snow)
That cold weather is on its way later this afternoon and this evening, and it will do two things. First the temps will drop and any leftover precip will change over to freezing rain, sleet, and then snow before ending. There will most likely be a flash freeze tonight since temps have been dropping on average of 16-20 degrees in 15 min across VT. So driving will be tough where areas are not treated this evening.
The second issue we have is the winter storm that is moving up the coast tomorrow. Timing is still a little hairy, but it will probably be moving up into southern New England by mid to late morning. There is will be in the form of rain along the coast, and freezing rain, sleet and a touch of snow at the start, going over to mainly freezing rain for an extended period. Across our region, there is a high probability of the precipitation coming in as heavy snow, and possibly staying all snow. There is an equal chance that we could change over to sleet and freezing rain partway thru the storm, but either way its going to be an absolute mess Thursday afternoon till Friday morning. Whoever stays all snow will get 12+ inches of snow. Places who flip over to sleet and freezing rain, probably 4-6 inches with an accretion of ice on top. The best chances of all snow will most likely be the mountains and foothills of NH and VT. Here in Lebanon, its going to be close, as usual...between all snow and a mix. Either way, it spells nasty driving.
Winter storm watches have been put up for the area, outlining the potentials.
To sum up, two threats....
1) Flash freeze this evening with a little mixed precip/snow, further complicating matters.
2) First major winter storm of the season tomorrow afternoon thru Friday morn.
Another update tonight. Hopefully I'll be able to get some accumulations.
Lebanon 56
Keene 55
Concord 57
Manchester 57
Nashua 58
Lawrence 60
But, further north...
Plymouth 39
Whitefield 42
St J, VT- 39
Lyndonville, VT 37
Burlington 31 (light snow)
Pittsburg NH 31 (light snow)
That cold weather is on its way later this afternoon and this evening, and it will do two things. First the temps will drop and any leftover precip will change over to freezing rain, sleet, and then snow before ending. There will most likely be a flash freeze tonight since temps have been dropping on average of 16-20 degrees in 15 min across VT. So driving will be tough where areas are not treated this evening.
The second issue we have is the winter storm that is moving up the coast tomorrow. Timing is still a little hairy, but it will probably be moving up into southern New England by mid to late morning. There is will be in the form of rain along the coast, and freezing rain, sleet and a touch of snow at the start, going over to mainly freezing rain for an extended period. Across our region, there is a high probability of the precipitation coming in as heavy snow, and possibly staying all snow. There is an equal chance that we could change over to sleet and freezing rain partway thru the storm, but either way its going to be an absolute mess Thursday afternoon till Friday morning. Whoever stays all snow will get 12+ inches of snow. Places who flip over to sleet and freezing rain, probably 4-6 inches with an accretion of ice on top. The best chances of all snow will most likely be the mountains and foothills of NH and VT. Here in Lebanon, its going to be close, as usual...between all snow and a mix. Either way, it spells nasty driving.
Winter storm watches have been put up for the area, outlining the potentials.
To sum up, two threats....
1) Flash freeze this evening with a little mixed precip/snow, further complicating matters.
2) First major winter storm of the season tomorrow afternoon thru Friday morn.
Another update tonight. Hopefully I'll be able to get some accumulations.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
More Wet Than White
Quick update, rain till evening....possibly changing to snow, maybe a coating to an inch, esp above 1000 feet. The Greens, will get more, the Adirondacks and Catskills are gonna get slammed...12-20 inches. That is all I have to say.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Let's talk about snow!
This isn't a practice write up. This is real. :)
Yea...it's time. Not only because I consider fall...just about over...but there is a storm on the way, and we might get some snow. So I say, bring it on.
There is still much disagreement with the track of this early season....wait for it....nor'easter, but there is enough consensus to be concerned about the first accumulations of the year, even here in Lebanon.
This is subject to change of course. This morning it appeared that we were going to get hit by a significant snowfall, like 4-8 inches. But now, the models have shifted the track west. The NAM model is furthest west, and one of the outliers. That would give central NY the heaviest snow, and give us rain, and rain to snow in the mtns with accumulation at the end. The other outlier brings the storm off the coast, which is a much colder solution, and would give us significant accumulating snows. Chances are, the track will be somewhere in the middle, so probably just west, or to the eat of the Connecticut River Valley. That puts Lebanon on a fine line between mostly rain with flurries at the end, or rain to snow with a few inches of accumulation, and up to 6+ inches above 1500 feet.
FWIW, here is a model solution that right now, looks like the most likely solution.
That would spell a lot of snow in eastern NY, esp in the mtns, and possibly snow down to PA and NJ. And it has Lebanon under 1-2 inches, which seems like a good compromise. More will fall in the hills.
I'll try to have an update tonight and tomorrow. I think this situation will warrant an update. Someone in NY or western New England is going to get a foot...yea, a foot of snow.
Winter 08-09 is here!
Yea...it's time. Not only because I consider fall...just about over...but there is a storm on the way, and we might get some snow. So I say, bring it on.
There is still much disagreement with the track of this early season....wait for it....nor'easter, but there is enough consensus to be concerned about the first accumulations of the year, even here in Lebanon.
This is subject to change of course. This morning it appeared that we were going to get hit by a significant snowfall, like 4-8 inches. But now, the models have shifted the track west. The NAM model is furthest west, and one of the outliers. That would give central NY the heaviest snow, and give us rain, and rain to snow in the mtns with accumulation at the end. The other outlier brings the storm off the coast, which is a much colder solution, and would give us significant accumulating snows. Chances are, the track will be somewhere in the middle, so probably just west, or to the eat of the Connecticut River Valley. That puts Lebanon on a fine line between mostly rain with flurries at the end, or rain to snow with a few inches of accumulation, and up to 6+ inches above 1500 feet.
FWIW, here is a model solution that right now, looks like the most likely solution.
That would spell a lot of snow in eastern NY, esp in the mtns, and possibly snow down to PA and NJ. And it has Lebanon under 1-2 inches, which seems like a good compromise. More will fall in the hills.
I'll try to have an update tonight and tomorrow. I think this situation will warrant an update. Someone in NY or western New England is going to get a foot...yea, a foot of snow.
Winter 08-09 is here!
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