Drip, drip, drip....for now

Low temperatures are very difficult to predict. I expected it to get below zero last night since we were dropping like a rock, but it stopped dropping at 3 (not that anyone really notices the difference between 3 and -3). High clouds moved in and the southerly flow took hold. Now, the temperature is already up to 35, despite cloudy skies. There is some light precipitation to our north, and it should stay away, but there is an outside chance of a few sprinkles or sleet pellets this afternoon. Nothing to worry about, temperatures will be in the low 40s.

Tonight is still intriguing, because despite the southwest wind, our temperatures will drop to near freezing, and if we get some spotty light precipitation, it could freeze on contact with surfaces like sidewalks or back roads....basically anything untreated. Any borderline ice becomes alleviated Tuesday as everyone warms above freezing Tuesday out ahead of the cold front, and we have another day near 40 degrees.

Then the strange weather begins. Cold air will bleed into the upper valley as another storm works its way up from Pennsylvania, throwing in mixed precipitation, possibly in the form of sleet, going over to freezing rain. There could be a significant period of ice, especially in elevated areas over 1000 feet since the cold air has more time to settle into that area first. If it makes it into the valley floor, it will be tough to scour out. And that is the big wildcard.

The latest computer models have trended warmer with the storm, giving us freezing rain through Tuesday morning and then a south to southeast wind, which would mean a [possible changeover to rain, and then a dry slot (precipitation ends). For what its worth, NWS is still thinking that this will be a colder system than modeled, but since we're getting closer to the storm, and they've all trended warmer, I'm beginning to wonder. Because of the possibility of freezing rain, a winter storm watch will probably be issued sometime in the next 12-24 hours, hopefully sooner than later. Driving on snow is one thing, but ice is another. To sum up.

1) Possible light freezing drizzle first thing Tuesday morning, changing to rain.
2) Waiting for cold air to bleed in...setting the stage
3) Possible moderate ice storm (.25-.5 inches of ice) especially 1000 feet or higher, gradually changing over to rain from valleys to hilltops, with a SSE wind taking over Wednesday.

Big update coming tonight.

Also, HPC has us under a moderate risk of at least .25 inches of ice Wednesday...that makes me more confident on all that stuff I just wrote. :)