Latest Storm Threats

It is looking better (or, ahem, worse, depending on your view) for a good thumping of snow on Tuesday afternoon thru Wednesday morning. The HPC (Hydrometeorogical Prediction Center) puts out maps and they have us under a moderate risk of at least 8 inches of snow and a low risk of 12 inches.

I tried uploading the image, but it didn't work. Maybe I'll do it later.

Snow should start Tuesday afternoon and become steady during the evening. It appears that it will fall primarily as snow in the local area, though temperatures will be marginal at first, in the low to possibly mid 30s, so accumulations will be somewhat tough at the beginning. I also expect this to be a typical early spring snowstorm, with the most snow falling at upper elevations, and the wettest, most dense snow falling in the valleys. As temps drop Tuesday night and early Wednesday, the snow will become less wet and more fluffy in nature, but still will probably stick to the trees very nicely.

Snow is forecast to end by 1pm Wednesday in the local area, but there is some chance it could end a bit earlier, or later. There will be some enhancement setting up on the backside of the storm, and if we get into it, the snow will continue into the afternoon hours. If not, the snow is done by late morning.

Amounts? Most in higher elevations where the snow will be fluffier, and least in the valleys where it will be wet. But a solid 6 inches is possible even down at the valley floor, with those one foot or more amounts in the hills, and especially in the White Mtns. They're going to get clocked...lucky bastards.

Still, there is some uncertainty with the storm. The HPC says we're prob going to get 8 inches, but I'm not buying into it quite yet, because of the marginal temperatures, and any possible shadowing from the local mountains, which has happened in the last several storms. Also, another trend to watch, most storms have moved faster than forecast, and have been warmer, so that is something that needs to be watched. That is why throwing out precise accumulations at this point is kind of silly, especially when you're talking about amounts like 6-12 inches...The stakes are high, but I'd rather throw out an estimate and then hone in on the amounts when I become more confident. It has been a very challenging winter forecasting winter storms, and we need to watch the seasonal trend to see if it happens again.

An important update tonight.