Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Depends on where you live...

Yikes. What a storm this is turning into....and it hasn't started yet. A few things have changed.

Earlier thought was that the snow would come in two bouts, and that would decrease our snow accumulation. Now it appears that there won't be much of a break in the snow at all, so we could be dealing with accumulations starting around 1-2pm tomorrow and lasting till late Wednesday morning. If you live at a higher elevation, there will be much more snow, and it will be fluffier.

I still don't like the SE wind Lebanon is going to get tomorrow, with temps 30-35 during the early afternoon, at the onset of the storm. We will get shadowed by the local topography, meaning the winds will downslope off the mountains and some of the moisture will be lost as it makes its way into town. Also, that will aid in warming the temperatures a little more, so mid 30s are a good bet as the storm begins. The winds should be fairly light, so there won't be much warming, and then as precip falls, there will be evaporational cooling and we'll drop back below freezing and remain there through the rest of the storm. So initially, accumulations during the afternoon will be somewhat difficult, especially on the main roads that are treated. If we get any heavy snow, it might be dicey, but I don't expect major problems before dark.

After dark is when all bets are off. The models are showing this storm extremely well, and even this radar link shows the storm coming in one hit.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/nmmwrf.refd_animate_1h.html


Just scroll thru the hours to see what the precipitation might look like during the storm.

So I'd say that the conditions will slowly deteriorate during the evening hours tomorrow and as the wind goes northerly, and the storm gets its act together, we could get into some heavier snow bands. Most should set up north of us, but there is a chance we could get into one of those. If we do, thats 1+ inch per hour snows for however long it sits. The snow should be done by late Wednesday morning in the valley, and will linger in the hills and the mtns.

Need to stress this

1.It will be a wet snow, especially in the valley, and especially at the beginning. As the storm wears on, it will be a bit fluffier.

2. Hills and mountains will get the jackpot. Like any classic spring snowstorm, this will be no exception. The heaviest amounts will be above 1000 feet. More on that in a minute.

3. Roads will get worse as the night wears on: As with most spring storms, the roads are mainly wet during the day, and then they turn to shit at night, esp if we have 1 inch per hour snows coming in.

4. Subject to change, when I wake up. :)

Accumulations: I'm upping them a bit, based on the fact that the storm should not be two distinct hits. Still, Lebanon will probably have difficulty accumulating snow tomorrow afternoon, which will cut down on amounts initially, but once nightfall hits, the snow will pile up. I'm upping the amounts to 6-10 inches, thinking that 8 is a very possible amount if there is no dry slot in the middle. The 10 inch snows will be at elevations from 700-900 feet, 8 inches around the city of Lebanon, and 6-7 inches down at the CT valley floor. Elevations above 1000 feet are going to get 12+, easy, and the mountains up north might see 15-20 inches. If Lebanon can overcome the shadowing and warm temperatures tomorrow afternoon, we too will share in higher amounts, but right now, 6-10 sounds like a reasonable estimate. It will prob change tomorrow.

Ugh, good night.

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